MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Trend Condition Remains Bullish

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract has traded higher this week, confirming an extension of the current bull cycle. Price has recently cleared 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish, however, a corrective cycle is in play and this has resulted in a pullback from the May high.
• The GBPUSD trend condition remains bullish, however, the recent sell-off is a concern for bulls and price continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Key short-term support to watch lies at 1.2674, the 50-day EMA. The trend signal in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is trading at its recent highs. An important resistance at 157.71, the May 29 high, has been breached. This confirms a resumption of the short-term bull cycle and note that price has also pierced 158.21. USDCAD has traded lower this week but - for now - continues to trade above the Jun 12 low of 1.3680. Key support is unchanged at 1.3590, the May 16 low. A clear break of this level would threaten a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• Gold is in consolidation mode and trades closer to its recent lows. A sharp sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a S/T bearish theme. The yellow metal has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2315.7. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the reversal from May 20. WTI futures have traded higher this week, extending the current bull phase. The climb has resulted in a break of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance. A clear breach of this hurdle would cancel a recent bearish theme and pave the way for $82.24.
• Bund futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs and a bull cycle remains in play. The latest pause appears to be a flag - a bullish continuation pattern. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 132.83, the May 16 high. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bullish. Recent gains resulted in a break of resistance at 97.86, the Jun 4 high and 98.05, 76.4% of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle. This cancels a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a resumption of the bull cycle.

EURUSD TECHS: Shallow Correction

• RES 4: 1.0916 High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.0852 High High Jun 12
• RES 2: 1.0794 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0761 High Jun 18
• PRICE: 1.0744 @ 05:32 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 1.0668 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 1.0650 Low May 1
• SUP 3: 1.0601 Low Apr 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

A bearish theme in EURUSD remains intact and recent shallow gains appear to be a correction. The recent breach of support at 1.0720, the Jun 11 low, strengthens a bearish theme. Note too that 1.0675, 76.4% of the Apr 16 - Jun 4 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would open 1.0650 next, the May 1 low. Key short-term resistance is at 1.0852, the Jun 12 high. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0794, the 50-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2947 1.50 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2764/2860 High Jun 14 / 12
• PRICE: 1.2714 @ 05:51 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 1.2657 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 1.2584 Low May 15
• SUP 3: 1.2510 Low May 14
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support

The GBPUSD trend condition remains bullish, however, the recent sell-off is a concern for bulls and price continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Key short-term support to watch lies at 1.2674, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would undermine the bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper correction, opening 1.2584 initially, May 15 low. For bulls, a reversal higher and a break of 1.2860, Jun 12 high, resumes the uptrend.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 0.8538 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 0.8541 High May 31
• RES 2: 0.8517 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8479 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8450 @ 06:17 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 0.8397 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 2022

EURGBP is unchanged. A bearish theme remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. The latest move down, reinforces the bear cycle and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend. Sights are on 0.8366 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8479, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 159.63 1.236 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 158.48 1.00 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 158.26 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 158.17 @ 07:09 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 156.87 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 155.54 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 155.25 /154.55 Trendline drawn from Dec 28 low / Low Jun 4
• SUP 4: 153.60 Low May 16

The trend signal in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is trading at its recent highs. An important resistance at 157.71, the May 29 high, has been breached. This confirms a resumption of the short-term bull cycle and note that price has also pierced 158.21, 76.4% of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off. A clear break of this price point would open 160.17, the Apr 29 high and a key resistance. Initial support is 156.74, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 172.56 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 172.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 171.56 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 170.14 / 89 High Jun 13 / 3
• PRICE: 169.86 @ 06:44 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 168.36/167.53 Trendline from the Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 167.33 Low May 16
• SUP 3: 165.64 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 164.02 Low May 3 and a pivot support

The EURJPY trend structure remains bullish and the recent move lower appears corrective. The cross has recovered from its recent lows and this leaves the key trendline support - at 168.36 - intact. The line is drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A clear breach of it would undermine a bullish theme and highlight a potential reversal. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 170.14, the Jun 13 high. A break would expose the bull trigger at 171.56, the Apr 29 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Moving Average Studies Highlight An Uptrend

• RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 1: 0.6714 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6669 @ 07:00 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.6558 Low May 8
• SUP 3: 0.6539 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.6497 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg

AUDUSD has traded higher this week but remains within its range. The recent sideways move has defined key resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high and key support at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Both levels represent key S/T directional triggers. Clearance of 0.6714, would open 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. A break below 0.6576 would expose 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low. MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up and highlight an uptrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3792 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 1.3711 @ 07:25 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 1.3675/1.3590 50-day EMA / Low May 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD has traded lower this week but - for now - continues to trade above the Jun 12 low of 1.3680. Key support is unchanged at 1.3590, the May 16 low. A clear break of this level would threaten a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. The trend outlook remains bullish, a resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Bull Flag Formation

• RES 4: 133.94 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 133.71 High Apr 12
• RES 2: 133.42 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 133.21 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 132.30 @ 05:10 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 131.68/131.45 50- and 20-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 130.21 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 129.52 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger

Bund futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs and a bull cycle remains in play. The latest pause appears to be a flag - a bullish continuation pattern. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 132.83, the May 16 high. This strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation higher towards 133.42 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is 131.68, the 50-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 117.640 2.236 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 117.440 High May 16 2024 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.380 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 117.160 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 116.600 @ 05:24 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 116.340/116.166 Low Jun 14 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 115.790 Low Jun 13
• SUP 3: 115.560 Low Jun 12
• SUP 4: 115.180 Low Jun 10

Bobl futures are holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. The latest move higher has resulted in a break of resistance at 116.750, the May 16 high. This confirms a stronger bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Sights are on 117.380 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 116.166, the 20-day EMA. First support lies at 116.340, the Jun 14 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 106.225 3.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 106.091 2.618 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 106.009 2.382 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 105.975 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 105.710 @ 05:35 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 105.625/105.523 Low Jun 14 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 105.310 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 105.110 Low May 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 105.000 Round number support

Schatz futures are holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. The latest rally has resulted in a break of resistance at 105.460, the Jun 4 / 5 high. This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 106.009 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term support has been defined at 105.523, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U4) Bullish Theme

• RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 99.25 1.236 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 98.89/99.05 High May 16 a key resistance / High Jun 14
• PRICE: 98.52 @ Close Jun 19
• SUP 1: 98.21 Low Jun 14 / 17
• SUP 2: 97.66/96.84 20-day EMA / Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 95.58 Low May 31

The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bullish. Recent gains resulted in a break of resistance at 97.86, the Jun 4 high and 98.05, 76.4% of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle. This cancels a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29. Resistance at 98.89, the May 16 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would reinforce bullish conditions. Initial firm support is 97.66, 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (U4) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.62 High Jun 5 and key resistance
• RES 1: 117.01 High Jun 18
• PRICE: 116.34 @ Close Jun 19
• SUP 1: 115.28/114.35 Low Jun 12 / 11
• SUP 2: 114.02 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 113.60 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.77 61.8% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 2023 rally (cont)

BTP futures have traded in a volatile manner recently. The latest reversal from the Jun 5 high, confirmed the end of the corrective phase between May 29 - Jun 5. This resulted in a break of key support at 115.54, Apr 25 low, highlighting a resumption of the downtrend. However, price has rebounded from the Jun 11 low of 114.35. Initial key resistance is at 117.62, Jun 5 high. A break would be bullish. First resistance is 117.01, Tuesday’s high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5110.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 5046.00/5088.00 High Jun 12 / 6
• RES 1: 4964.10 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 4900.00 @ 06:10 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 4818.00 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: 4711.00 Low Feb 19
• SUP 4: 4626.00 Low Feb 13

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish, however, a corrective cycle is in play and this has resulted in a pullback from the May high. Recent weakness has also resulted in a break of 4943.00, the Jun 11 low, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. A resumption of weakness would open 4762.00, the Apr 19 low and a key support. Firm resistance is at 5046.00, Jun 12 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 5622.69 2.764 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5594.66 2.618 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5578.75 Intraday high
• PRICE: 5576.75 @ 07:55 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: 5433.13/5345.66 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support
• SUP 3: 5213.25 Low May 6
• SUP 4: 5155.75 Low May 3

The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract has traded higher this week, confirming an extension of the current bull cycle. Price has recently cleared 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5594.66 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support lies at 5433.13, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q4) Bullish Set-Up

• RES 4: $91.11 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.22 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $87.04 -76.4% retracement of the Apr 12 - Jun 5 bear leg
• RES 1: $85.84 - High Jun 18
• PRICE: $85.12 @ 06:58 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: $82.54 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $79.32/76.76 - Low Jun 7 / 4
• SUP 3: $75.63 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.47 - Low Dec 13 and a key support

Brent futures have traded higher this week, marking an extension of the current bull cycle. The climb has resulted in a break of key S/T resistance at $84.72, the May 29 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a bullish continuation near-term. Sights are on $87.04, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch is $82.54, the 20-day EMA. A break would be seen as an early reversal signal.

WTI TECHS: (Q4) Maintains A Firmer Tone

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $85.24 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $82.24 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg
• RES 1: $81.16 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $80.53 @ 07:11 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: $77.74 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $74.94/72.44 - Low Jun 10 / 4
• SUP 3: $71.05 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $69.22 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support

WTI futures have traded higher this week, extending the current bull phase. The climb has resulted in a break of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance. A clear breach of this hurdle would cancel a recent bearish theme and pave the way for $82.24, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support to watch is $77.74, the 20-day EMA. A break would be seen as an early potential reversal signal.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $2387.8 - High Jun 7
• PRICE: $2342.8 @ 07:15 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

Gold is in consolidation mode and trades closer to its recent lows. A sharp sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a S/T bearish theme. The yellow metal has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2315.7. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the reversal from May 20 and open $2277.4, the May 3 low. Clearance of this price point would also strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is $2387.8, the Jun 7 high.

SILVER TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $30.364 @ 07:32 BST Jun 20
• SUP 1: $28.906/659 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver is trading above its recent lows. The metal traded lower Jun 7 and cleared support at $29.381, the Jun 4 low. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement. Note that the current corrective cycle is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $28.906. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme. A reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $32.518, May 20 high.