MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilts in Midst of Corrective Cycle

Price Signal Summary – Gilts in Midst of Corrective Cycle

• A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact. This week’s rally has resulted in a break of resistance at 4498.00, the Jun 30 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week. The rally resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA at 4335.00 and price is through 4371.00, the Jul 6 high. Clearance of this latter level highlights a potentially stronger bull cycle.
• A strong impulsive rally in AUDUSD last week resulted in the break of a number of key short-term resistance points. The move highlights a stronger short-term bullish theme and price remains within range of resistance at 0.6900, the Jun 16 high. USDJPY continues to weaken as it extends the bear cycle that started Jun 30. The recent sell-off has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and price is back inside the bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Last week’s clearance of resistance at 1.2848, the Jun 16 high, confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Gold is holding on to its latest gains. The yellow metal has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at $1945.0 and the break signals scope for a continuation of the current corrective cycle. The current bull cycle in WTI futures persists despite the pull lower in prices across the Friday session. The contract has recently breached $72.72, the Jun 21 high and Wednesday’s move higher resulted in a break of key resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high.
• Bund futures have rallied sharply higher last week. The move resulted in a break of resistance at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 132.72. This strengthens the short-term bull cycle and a continuation higher would open 133.68. The Gilt futures trend needle continues to point south, however, a corrective cycle has resulted in a short-term recovery. The contract has traded above the 20-day EMA, at 94.55.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave

• RES 4: 1.1396 High Feb 16 2022
• RES 3: 1.1355 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 22 - Jul 7 price swing:
• RES 2: 1.1313 High Feb 24 2022
• RES 1: 1.1274 61.8% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Sep ‘22 bear leg
• PRICE: 1.1237 @ 08:37 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 1.1012 High Jun 22
• SUP 3: 1.1004 Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: 1.0930 20-day EMA

EURUSD traded sharply higher last week and continues to appreciate. The latest rally has resulted in a move above 1.1095, the Apr 26 high and key resistance. The break confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Moving average studies are in bull-mode position reinforcing current trend conditions. The focus is on 1.1274 next, a retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 1.1095.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.3391 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3328 76.4% retracement of the Jun ‘21 - Sep ‘22 downleg
• RES 2: 1.3258 1.236 proj of the May 25 - Jun 16 - Jun 29 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3174 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 8 low
• PRICE: 1.3084 @ 08:40 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 1.2982 Low Jul 13
• SUP 2: 1.2848 High Jun 16 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 1.2788 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2674 Low Jul 6

GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Last week’s clearance of resistance at 1.2848, the Jun 16 high, confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. The focus is on 1.3174, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 8 low. Initial firm support lies at 1.2788, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8620/58 50-day EMA / High Jun 28 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8594 High Jul 17
• PRICE: 0.8588 @ 08:42 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 0.8504 Low Jul 11
• SUP 2: 0.8471 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2022

The primary trend direction in EURGBP is unchanged and remains down. Last week’s break of support at 0.8518, the Jun 19 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for a continuation lower. Moving average studies are in bear-mode position, highlighting current trend conditions. The focus is on 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8620, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Continues To Weaken

• RES 4: 144.20 High Jul 7
• RES 3: 143.01 High Jul 10
• RES 2: 141.68 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 138.95/140.18 High Jul 13 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 138.72 @ 08:44 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 137.25 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 136.57 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 136.31 Low May 17
• SUP 4: 135.53 61.8% retracement of the Mar 24 - Jun 30 bull leg

USDJPY continues to weaken as it extends the bear cycle that started Jun 30. The recent sell-off has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and price is back inside the bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. A continuation lower would open 136.57, the lower band of a moving average envelope. Initial firm resistance is at 140.18, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would ease bearish pressure.

EURJPY TECHS: Remains Above Trendline Support - For Now

• RES 4: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 157.12/158.00 High Jul 6 / High Jun 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 156.14 High Jul 14
• PRICE: 155.86 @ 08:47 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 153.52 Trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low
• SUP 2: 152.77 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 151.61 Low Jun 15
• SUP 4: 151.07 High May 29

The current bear cycle in EURJPY remains in play and short-term gains appear corrective for now. Attention is on a trendline support at 153.32 and support at 152.77, the 50-day EMA. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 24 low. A break of this 153.52-152.77 support zone would strengthen bearish conditions and pave the way for a continuation lower. Initial resistance is seen at 155.67, the Jul 11 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Strong Impulsive Bull Wave

• RES 4: 0.7029 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 0.6993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - May 31 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6936 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6811 @ 08:49 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 0.6784 Low Jul 13
• SUP 2: 0.6713 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6651 Low Jul 11
• SUP 4: 0.6596 Low Jun 29 and key support

A strong impulsive rally in AUDUSD last week resulted in the break of a number of key short-term resistance points. The move highlights a stronger short-term bullish theme and price remains within range of resistance at 0.6900, the Jun 16 high. A break of this level would open 0.6936, the Feb 16 high. Initial support lies at Thursday’s intraday low of 0.6784. A firmer level lies at 0.6713, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Bounce into Friday Close

• RES 4: 1.3387 High Jul 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3361 50-dma
• RES 2: 1.3304 High Jul 10
• RES 1: 1.3251 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3221 @ 08:51 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.3032 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2949 2.00 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing

USDCAD traded lower again early Friday before bouncing into the close. The subsequent bounce looks corrective at this juncture, keeping the medium-term trend pointed lower for now. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of 1.3117, the Jun 27 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started on Oct 13 2022. The break lower opens 1.3084, and 1.3032, Fibonacci projection points. The 1.0% 10-dma envelope has been pierced for the first time since mid-June, signalling the extent of the current downside momentum. Firm resistance is seen at 1.3251, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 135.00 High Jun 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 134.14 High Jul 3
• RES 2: 133.68 High Jul 5
• RES 1: 133.30 High Jul 13
• PRICE: 132.78 @ 08:11 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 131.92/130.60 Low Jul 13 / Low Jul 10
• SUP 2: 130.46 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 16 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 129.93 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 16 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 129.49 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 16 - 27 price swing

Bund futures have rallied sharply higher last week. The move resulted in a break of resistance at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 132.72. This strengthens the short-term bull cycle and a continuation higher would open 133.68, the Jul 5 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 130.60, the Jul 10 low. Note that the medium-term trend direction remains down.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Correction Still In Play

• RES 4: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 3: 116.450 High Jun 26 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 116.280 High Jun 29
• RES 1: 115.910 High Jul 3
• PRICE: 115.520 @ 08:12 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 115.230/114.550 Low Jul 13 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 114.432 1.764 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 114.130 Low Mar 6 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 114.090 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bobl futures traded higher on Thursday last week and in the process breached resistance at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 115.527. The break higher signals potential for a stronger short-term correction and attention is on the next resistance at 115.910, the Jul 3 high. A break would open 116.450, the Jun 26 high and key resistance. Key support has been defined at 114.550, the Jul 6 low and this level marks the bear trigger.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Breaches The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 105.185 High Jun 15
• RES 3: 105.130 High Jun 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 105.055 High Jun 28
• RES 1: 104.995 High Jul 13
• PRICE: 104.835 @ 08:14 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 104.795/104.570 Low Jul 13 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.335 Low Mar 9 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 104.264 2.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend and last week’s gains appear to be a correction - for now. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA at 104.909. This signals scope for a climb towards 105.055, the Jun 28 high. Note that key short-term resistance is at 105.130, the Jun 26 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 104.570, the Jul 6 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Short-Term Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 96.19 High Jun 29
• RES 3: 96.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 95.55 High Jul 3 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 95.50 High Jul 14
• PRICE: 94.84 @ 08:17 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 92.82/09 Low Jul 12 / Low Jul 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 92.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 91.80 1.382 proj of the Jun 1 - 20 - 23 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 91.36 1.50 proj of the Jun 1 - 20 - 23 price swing (cont)

The Gilt futures trend needle continues to point south, however, a corrective cycle has resulted in a short-term recovery. The contract has traded above the 20-day EMA, at 94.55. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards a key short-term resistance at 95.55, the Jul 3 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 92.09, the Jul 7 low and bear trigger.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Strong Reversal

• RES 4: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 117.10 High Jun 29
• RES 2: 116.50 76% retracement of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 sell-off
• RES 1: 115.82 61.8% retracement of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 sell-off
• PRICE: 115.12 @ 08:19 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 114.26/112.95 Low Jul 13 / 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support
• SUP 4: 111.00 Round number support

BTP futures reversed course on Wednesday last week and rallied sharply higher on Thursday. The climb has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA at 114.95. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of 115.82, the 61.8% retracement of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 sell-off. A break of this level would open 116.50, the 76.4% retracement point. Key support has been defined at 112.95, the Jul 11 low. A break would reinstate a bearish threat.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Rally Exposes Key Resistance

• RES 4: 4501.60 1.618 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4472.24 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4447.00 High Jul 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4435.00 High Jul 13
• PRICE: 4399.00 @ 08:20 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 4335.00/4220.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 7 and key support
• SUP 2: 4208.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4152.20 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week. The rally resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA at 4335.00 and price is through 4371.00, the Jul 6 high. Clearance of this latter level highlights a potentially stronger bull cycle and attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4447.00, the Jul 3 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4220.00, the Jul 7 low. Initial support is at the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 4584.42 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 13 low
• RES 3: 4579.70 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 4576.62 2.50 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 4560.50 High Jul 14
• PRICE: 4537.00 @ 09:00 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 4439.81/4368.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 26 and a key support
• SUP 2: 4351.02 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4337.83 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low
• SUP 4: 4269.50 Low Jun 2

A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact. This week’s rally has resulted in a break of resistance at 4498.00, the Jun 30 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The contract has also traded through 4500.00 and this opens 4576.62, a Fibonacci projection. First support lies at 4439.81, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a S/T bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U3) Bull Run Intact Despite Friday Pullback

• RES 4: $86.20 - High Jan 27
• RES 3: $85.47 - High Apr 12 / 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $83.77 - High Apr 19
• RES 1: $82.06 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 12 - May 4 downleg
• PRICE: $78.95 @ 08:26 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: $76.98 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $75.03/71.43 - Low May 31
• SUP 3: $71.00 - Low Jul 6 / May 4
• SUP 4: $69.95 - Low Mar 20 and a key support

Prices pulled lower across the Friday session and remain on the soft side through the Monday open. Over the more medium-term, however, bullish conditions remain intact and the contract traded higher last week. Recent gains resulted in a move above resistance at $78.47, the Jun 5 high. The continuation higher signals scope for a climb towards $82.06, a Fibonacci retracement. Key near-term support has been defined at $75.03, the Jul 6 low. A break of this level is required to signal a possible top.

WTI TECHS: (Q3) Holding On To Its Latest Gains

• RES 4: $82.24 - High Apr 12 and key resistance
• RES 3: $80.39 - High Apr 19
• RES 2: $78.62 - High Apr 24
• RES 1: $78.03 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 12 - May 4 bear leg
• PRICE: $74.60 @ 08:28 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: $72.31 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $69.69/66.96 - Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 12 and key support
• SUP 3: $64.41 - Low May 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

The current bull cycle in WTI futures persists despite the pull lower in prices across the Friday session. The contract has recently breached $72.72, the Jun 21 high and Wednesday’s move higher resulted in a break of key resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high. This strengthens current bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards $78.03, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key short-term support has been defined at $66.96, the Jun 12 low. Initial support is at $72.31, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 3: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 2: $1985.3 - High May 24 and key resistance
• RES 1: $1968.0 - High Jun 16
• PRICE: $1952.2 @ 08:30 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: $1934.4 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1902.8/1893.1 - Low Jul 6 / Jun 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

Gold is holding on to its latest gains. The yellow metal has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at $1945.0 and the break signals scope for a continuation of the current corrective cycle. This opens $1968.00, the Jun 16 high. Key resistance has been defined at $1985.3, the May 24 high where a break would highlight a stronger reversal. Key support and the bear is at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low.

SILVER TECHS: Clears Key Resistance

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $25.185 - 76.4% retracement of the May 5 - Jun 23 downleg
• RES 1: $24.903 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $24.832 @ 08:35 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: $24.099 - Low Jul 13
• SUP 2: $23.353 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.527 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and the bear trigger

Silver maintains a firmer short-term tone and the metal traded higher again on Friday. Resistance at $24.530, the Jun 9 high, has been cleared. The break of this hurdle highlights a stronger short-term reversal and signals scope for gains above $25.00 towards $26.1350, the May 5 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at $23.353, the 20-day EMA.