MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Breaches Bull Channel Top

Price Signal Summary – Gold Breaches Bull Channel Top

• EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain vulnerable. The contract traded lower Monday to confirm a resumption of this year’s downtrend. Price has recently moved through the 50.0% retracement of the bull cycle between Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21 and this week breached the 61.8% handle, at 3468.60. E-Mini S&P futures remain vulnerable. The contract traded above the 20-day EMA at 4368.94 last week. The failure to hold above this EMA is a bearish development. Broader trend signals are bearish and the deeper pullback has opened the 4101.75 key support handle and the bear trigger.
• In FX, EURUSD bears have paused for breath. The current downtrend remains intact though. The pair traded lower Monday to a fresh cycle low of 1.0806. USDJPY maintains this week’s firmer tone and has probed resistance at 115.87, the Feb 15 high. The USD remains above the Feb 24 low of 114.41 and more importantly above its key support at 114.16, Feb 2 low. AUDUSD remains below Monday’s high of 0.7441. The recent pullback suggests scope for a deeper correction - Monday’s price pattern is a bearish shooting star candle, highlighting a short-term top.
• Gold traded higher yesterday, reinforcing bullish conditions. The metal has cleared the Feb 24 high of $1974.3. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and also highlights the fact that prices have breached the top of the recent bull channel, drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low. WTI futures remain in a clear uptrend. Fresh cycle highs recently reinforce the current trend direction and mark an extension of the underlying bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies also point north, highlighting current sentiment.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a short-term uptrend however the pullback from Monday’s high of 168.67 has extended Tuesday. The contract has breached support at 165.51, Mar 3 low to suggest potential for a deeper pullback. Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday to confirm an extension of the pullback from the recent high of 126.81 on Mar 1. The contract has breached support at 123.50, Mar 1 low and this opens 122.47, a Fibonacci retracement.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bears Pause For Breath

• RES 4: 1.1163 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.1121 Low Jan 28 and a recent breakout level
• RES 2: 1.1068 High Mar 4
• RES 1: 1.0961 High Mar 7
• PRICE: 1.0917 @ 06:07 GMT Mar 9
• SUP 1: 1.0806 Low Mar 7
• SUP 2: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 3: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0654 2.50 proj of the Jan - Mar - May 2021 price swing

EURUSD bears have paused for breath. The current downtrend remains intact though. The pair traded lower Monday to a fresh cycle low of 1.0806. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend with moving averages also pointing south and it marks an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.0767, a low dating back to May 2020. Monday’s intraday high of 1.0961 is seen as the initial resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.3486 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3430 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3358 Low Jan 27
• RES 1: 1.3259 High Mar 7
• PRICE: 1.3121 @ 06:10 GMT Mar 9
• SUP 1: 1.3082 Low Mar 8
• SUP 2: 1.3058 1.50 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD traded to a fresh low Tuesday and the near-term outlook remains bearish. The pair has this week cleared key support at 1.3163, Dec 8 low. The move lower reinforces bearish conditions and has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started early January 2021. This opens 1.3058 next, a 1.50 projection of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at Monday’s 1.3259 intraday high.

EURGBP TECHS: Rebound Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.8432/78 High Feb 11 / High Feb 7
• RES 3: 0.8406 High Feb 25 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8370 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8347 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 0.8327 @ 06:17 GMT Mar 9
• SUP 1: 0.8278/8203 Low Mar 8 / Low Mar 7 and key support
• SUP 2: 0.8193 1.236 proj of the Feb 7 - 24 - 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8169 1.382 proj of the Feb 7 - 24 - 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8131 Low Jun 27, 2016

EURGBP traded lower Monday to 0.8203. The cross has recovered though and traded higher yesterday. S/T gains are considered corrective and the primary trend direction remains down. Last week’s move lower resulted in a clear break of key support at 0.8282/77, the Feb ’20 and Dec’19 lows. Note that the break of 0.8300 highlights a breach of the base of a multi-year range - a key bearish development. Firm resistance is seen at 0.8370.

USDJPY TECHS: Extends This Week’s Climb

• RES 4: 118.07 2.236 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 3: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 2: 116.34/35 High Feb 10 / High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.92 Intraday high
• PRICE: 115.75 @ 06:21 GMT Mar 9
• SUP 1: 114.41 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 114.16 Low Feb 02 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 113.47 Low Jan 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 113.14 Low Dec 17

USDJPY maintains this week’s firmer tone and has probed resistance at 115.87, the Feb 15 high. The USD remains above the Feb 24 low of 114.41 and more importantly above its key support at 114.16, Feb 2 low. While the latter support holds, the trend condition remains bullish highlighted by a positive MA set-up. Stronger gains would refocus attention on the 116.34/35 key resistance. A break of 114.16, would instead highlight a bearish threat.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 129.45 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 128.63 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 127.39 Low Dec 3/6 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 126.73 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 126.42 @ 06:26 GMT Mar 9
• SUP 1: 124.40/28 Low Mar 7 / 50.0% of the 2020 - 2021 bulls cycle
• SUP 2: 123.45 1.618 proj of the Jan - Sep - Oct ‘21 price swing
• SUP 3: 123.01 Low Nov 20 2020
• SUP 4: 128.85 Low Nov 19 2020

EURJPY remains bearish despite the recovery from Monday’s low of 124.40. A bearish theme follows last week’s sell-off that confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and highlights an acceleration of the current bear cycle. The focus is on 124.28 next, 50.0% of the 2020 - 2021 bulls cycle. On the upside, resistance is seen at 127.39, the Dec 3/6 low and a recent key breakout level. Short-term gains are considered corrective.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Shooting Star Candle Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.7599 High Jul 6, 2021
• RES 3: 0.7556 High Oct 28, 2021 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.7532 High Nov 2, 2021
• RES 1: 0.7441 High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.7289 @ 06:32 GMT Mar 9
• SUP 1: 0.7239 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.7210 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.7141 Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: 0.7095 Low Feb 24

AUDUSD remains below Monday’s high of 0.7441. The recent pullback suggests scope for a deeper correction - Monday’s price pattern is a bearish shooting star candle, highlighting a short-term top. This has opened 0.7239/10, the 20- and 50-day EMA values. The trend outlook remains bullish though following recent gains and the break of resistance at 0.7314, Jan 13 high. A move higher would refocus attention on 0.7441, the bull trigger.

USDCAD TECHS: Probes Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3024 38.2% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘21 bear cycle
• RES 3: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 1: 1.2901 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 1.2879 @ 06:46 GMT Mar 9
• SUP 1: 1.2707 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2587 Low Mar 3
• SUP 3: 1.2552 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally
• SUP 4: 1.2499 Low Jan 21

USDCAD maintains this week’s bullish tone and is holding onto its gains. The climb threatens the recent bearish theme and attention has turned to the key near-term resistance of 1.2878, the Feb 24 high that has been probed. Clearance of this level would be seen as a bullish short-term development and open 1.2964, the Dec 20 high and a key resistance. Weakness below 1.2587 is required to reinstate a bearish threat.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Corrective Pullback From Monday’s High Extends

• RES 4: 170.66 0.764 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 1 - Mar 3 price swing
• RES 3: 170.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 169.44 0.764 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 1 - Mar 3 price swing
• RES 1: 167.17/68.67 High Mar 8 / High Mar 7
• PRICE: 164.89 @ 05:02 GMT Mar 9
• SUP 1: 165.14 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 164.39 Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: 163.19 61.8% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 rally
• SUP 4: 162.29 Low Feb 22

Bund futures remain in a short-term uptrend however the pullback from Monday’s high of 168.67 has extended Tuesday. The contract has breached support at 165.51, Mar 3 low to suggest potential for a deeper pullback. Further weakness would open 164.39, Mar 1 low and the next key short-term support. A rebound would ease the bearish pressure and signal a possible resumption of gains.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 135.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 134.660 0.764 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 1 - Mar 3 price swing
• RES 2: 134.240 0.618 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 1 - Mar 3 price swing
• RES 1: 133.390/34.080 High Mar 8 / High Mar 7
• PRICE: 132.360 @ 05:13 GMT Mar 9
• SUP 1: 132.130 Low Mar 1 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 131.812/050 61.8% of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 rally / Low Feb 25
• SUP 3: 130.780 Low Feb 23
• SUP 4: 130.410 Low Feb 8 and a key support

Bobl futures remain bullish however the contract has extended the retracement from Monday’s high of 134.080. The next support to watch is at 132.130, the Mar 1 low where a break would suggest potential for a continuation lower. This would open 131.812, a Fibonacci retracement. A rebound would ease the near-term bearish pressure and refocus attention on the bull trigger at 134.080, Mar 7 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Approaching Support

• RES 4: 112.798 1.236 proj of the Feb 23 - Mar 1 - 3 price swing
• RES 3: 112.580 1.000 proj of the Feb 23 - Mar 1 - 3 price swing
• RES 2: 112.362 0.764 proj of the Feb 23 - Mar 1 - 3 price swing
• RES 1: 112.227 0.618 proj of the Feb 23 - Mar 1 - 3 price swing
• PRICE: 111.755 @ 04:55 GMT Mar 9
• SUP 1: 111.655 Low Mar 3 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 111.435 Low Feb 28
• SUP 3: 111.240 Low Feb 23
• SUP 4: 111.145 Low Feb 4 and a key support

Schatz futures remain bullish. The contract traded to a fresh trend high Monday before pulling back. The recent climb marks an extension of the recovery from 111.655, the Mar 3 low and confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend plus maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. For now though, attention is on support as the pullback from Monday’s high of 112.210 extends. Next support is at 111.655.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 126.90 2.00 proj of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 126.81 High Mar 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 125.85 High Mar 4
• RES 1: 124.60 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 123.30 @ Close Mar 8
• SUP 1: 122.96 Low Mar 8
• SUP 2: 122.46 76.4% retracement of the Feb 16 - Mar 1 rally
• SUP 3: 122.04 Low Feb 23
• SUP 4: 121.10 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday to confirm an extension of the pullback from the recent high of 126.81 on Mar 1. The contract has breached support at 123.50, Mar 1 low and this opens 122.47, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of 122.47 would expose the key support at 121.10, Feb 16 low. On the upside, a rebound would ease the bearish threat and refocus sights on the key resistance at 126.81.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 149.22 High Dec 22 2021 (cont)
• RES 3: 148.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 147.93 High Jan 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 146.74 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 143.74 @ Close Mar 8
• SUP 1: 142.51 Low Mar 1 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 140.54 Low Feb 28
• SUP 3: 138.99 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 138.60 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger

The BTP futures are consolidating and remain below recent highs. The short-term outlook remains bullish following strong gains on Mar 3 as the contract extended the retracement of the Jan 31 - Feb 16 downleg. Price has breached 145.73, 76.4% of the Jan 31 - Feb 16 downleg. This has opened 147.93 next, the Jan 31 high. A break of 147.93 would further strengthen the current bullish condition. Firm support is seen at 142.51, the Mar 3 low.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (H2): Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 4671.75 High Jan 18
• RES 3: 4586.00 High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4446.14 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4418.75 High Mar 3
• PRICE: 4183.50 @ 06:50 GMT Mar 9
• SUP 1: 4101.75 Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3990.50 0.764 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing

E-Mini S&P futures remain vulnerable. The contract traded above the 20-day EMA at 4368.94 last week. The failure to hold above this EMA is a bearish development. Broader trend signals are bearish and the deeper pullback has opened the 4101.75 key support handle and the bear trigger. Clearance of the 20-day EMA is required to suggest scope for further short-term gains and a test of the 50-day EMA at 4446.14.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 4021.20 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 3857.20 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 3714.50 High Mar 4
• RES 1: 3654.50 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 3568.50 @ 05:44 GMT Mar 9
• SUP 1: 3380.00 Low Mar 7
• SUP 2: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 3318.60 2.382 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 3246.30 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain vulnerable. The contract traded lower Monday to confirm a resumption of this year’s downtrend. Price has recently moved through the 50.0% retracement of the bull cycle between Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21 and this week breached the 61.8% handle, at 3468.60. MA studies are in a bear mode condition and the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs highlights the downtrend. The focus is on 3379.00 next.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $149.31 - 4.236 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 3: $144.62 - 4.00 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 2: $140.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $139.13 - High Mar 7
• PRICE: $131.16 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 9
• SUP 1: $119.04 - Low Mar 7
• SUP 2: $106.83 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 3: $98.30 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: $92.75 - Low Fev 25 and a key short-term support

Brent futures spiked higher Monday but failed to hold onto the session high. Despite the pullback, Monday’s price action highlights an acceleration in the uptrend, taking price further into overbought territory. Volatile price action is likely to dominate near-term however, it is clear that the uptrend remains firmly intact for now. The focus is on the $140.00 handle next. Initial support lies at Monday’s intraday low of $119.04.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Northbound

• RES 4: $140.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $135.61 - 3.764 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 2: $132.75 - 3.618 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 1: $130.50 - High Mar 7
• PRICE: $125.12 @ 07:45 GMT Mar 9
• SUP 1: $115.54 - Low Mar 7
• SUP 2: $105.18 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 3: $95.32 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: $90.06 - Low Feb 23 and a key support

WTI futures remain in a clear uptrend. Fresh cycle highs recently reinforce the current trend direction and mark an extension of the underlying bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies also point north, highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on $132.75, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support lies at Monday’s intraday low of $115.54.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching The All-Time High

• RES 4: $2119.3 - 3.382 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2104.6 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and the all-time high
• RES 1: $2070.4 - High Mar 8
• PRICE: $2044.10 @ 07:27 GMT Mar 9
• SUP 1: $1981.2 - Low Mar 8
• SUP 2: $1929.9 - Low Mar 4
• SUP 3: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $1853.9 - High Jan 25

Gold traded higher yesterday, reinforcing bullish conditions. The metal has cleared the Feb 24 high of $1974.3. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and also highlights the fact that prices have breached the top of the recent bull channel, drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low. With price above the $2000.0 handle, the focus is on $2075.5, the Aug 7 2020 major resistance and all-time high. Initial support is seen at yesterday’s $1981.2 low.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $27.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $26.943 - High Mar 8
• PRICE: $26.445@ 08:00 GMT Mar 9
• SUP 1: $24.866 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $23.910 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $22.863/008 - Low Feb 11 / Low Feb 3 and key S/T support

Silver remains in an uptrend and traded higher again Tuesday to confirm a resumption of its current bull cycle. The metal has cleared resistance at $25.406, the Nov 16 2021 high and has this week breached the $26.00 handle. An extension higher would pave the way for strength towards $27.00 next and $27.245, the Jun 17 2021 high. Initial support is seen at $24.866, the Mar 2 low.