MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Bullish Sequence Persists

Price Signal Summary – Gold Bullish Sequence Persists

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. The recent move down highlights a short-term corrective cycle and last week's sell-off reinforces this condition. The contract has breached bull channel support drawn from the Jan 17 low. The primary uptrend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. The move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The break of support around the 20-day EMA suggests potential for a deeper retracement.
• EURUSD traded higher Tuesday before pulling back. Last week’s 1.0877 high (Apr 4), has been pierced. Recent gains have reinforced a short-term bullish development and a continuation higher would open 1.0943, the Mar 21 high. The trend outlook in EURJPY remains bullish and the cross continues to trade above a key short-term support at 162.81 marking the trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A clear break of this line is required to highlight a short-term reversal. Last Friday’s high print in USDCAD reinforces the current bullish theme. The pair has pierced an important resistance and congestion at 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started late December last year.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal is trading at this week’s highs. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s rally reinforced current conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has traded through $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high.
• Despite yesterday’s gains, a bearish threat in Bund futures remains present. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late last year and open 130.60. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the contract traded lower Monday but has since recovered. Sights are on the key short-term support at 98.05, the Mar 15 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.0943 High Mar 21
• RES 2: 1.0921 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0885 High Apr 09
• PRICE: 1.0853 @ 05:55 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 1.0791/25 Low Apr 5 / 2
• SUP 2: 1.0695 Low Feb 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0656 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 1.0611 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull rally

EURUSD traded higher Tuesday before pulling back. Last week’s 1.0877 high (Apr 4), has been pierced. Recent gains have reinforced a short-term bullish development and a continuation higher would open 1.0943, the Mar 21 high. For bears, support to watch lies at 1.0791, the Apr 5 low. A break would refocus attention on 1.0725, the Apr 2 low, ahead of the key support at 1.0695, the Feb 14 low and bear trigger.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.2803 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.2759 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 1 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2717 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2709 High Apr 09
• PRICE: 1.2677 @ 06:07 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 1.1.2614/2540 Monday’s low / Low Apr 1 / 2
• SUP 2: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2465 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low Nov 20 ‘23

GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday and breached minor resistance at 1.2684, the Apr 4 high. The pair is trading above the 50-day EMA - at 1.2664. A clear break of this average would improve short-term conditions and signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 1.2717 next, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, key support to watch lies at 1.2519, the Feb 5 low. A clear break of this level would highlight an important bearish development.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.8678 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8607 23.6% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8586/8602 High Apr 05 / High Mar 22
• PRICE: 0.8562 @ 06:18 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 0.8530/8504 Low Mar 21 / 29 and Low Mar 8
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

A short-term bull cycle in EURGBP and Tuesday’s sell-off appears to be a minor correction. Sights are on key resistance at 0.8602, the Mar 22 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the recovery that started Feb 14 and open 0.8678, a Fibonacci retracement point. Support to watch lies at 0.8530, Mar 21 / 29 low. A break would instead be seen as a bearish development and expose the bear trigger at 0.8493, Aug 23 ‘23 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 153.39 1.382 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 3: 153.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 152.66 1.236 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 1: 151.97 High Mar 27
• PRICE: 151.79 @ 06:38 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 151.01/149.87 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 147.44 Low Mar 14
• SUP 3: 146.49 Low Mar 08 / 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 145.90 Low Feb 1

USDJPY remains inside its 2-week range. Bullish conditions remain intact and a flag formation on the daily chart - a bullish continuation pattern, continues to reinforce the uptrend. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too. A clear break of the major 151.91/95 hurdle, the Nov 13 ‘23 and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively, would resume the uptrend and open 152.66, a Fibonacci projection. Support is 150.93, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 167.16 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 165.35 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 165.17 High Apr 09
• PRICE: 164.71 @ 07:03 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 163.65/162.81 20-day EMA / Trendline drawn from Dec 7 low
• SUP 2: 162.52 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 161.07 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 160.22 Low Mar 11

The trend outlook in EURJPY remains bullish and the cross continues to trade above a key short-term support at 162.81 marking the trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A clear break of this line is required to highlight a short-term reversal. This would also highlight a break of the 50-day EMA, at 162.52. For bulls, key resistance is at 165.35, the Mar 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 3: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
• RES 2: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6644 High Apr 9
• PRICE: 0.6626 @ 07:57 GMT Apr 10
• SUP 1: 0.6563 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6478 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 0.6443 Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg

AUDUSD traded higher yesterday and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The break of the 50-day EMA marks a bullish short-term development. A continuation higher would open 0.6668, the Mar 8 high and bull trigger. A break of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. For bears, a reversal lower and a break of support at 0.6478, the Mar 5 low, would instead reinstate a bearish theme. Initial support lies at 0.6563, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3855 High Nov 10 2023
• RES 3: 1.3765 High Nov 22 2023
• RES 2: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3647/61 High Apr 5 / High Nov 27 2023
• PRICE: 1.3561 @ 08:07 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 1.3478/20 Low Apr 4 / Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5

Last Friday’s high print in USDCAD reinforces the current bullish theme. The pair has pierced an important resistance and congestion at 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started late December last year. 1.3623, 61.8% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg, has also been tested, a break would open 1.3661, the Nov 27 ‘23 high. 1.3478 is first support, the Apr 4 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 134.48 High Feb 5
• RES 3: 134.15 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 133.48/69 High Mar 27 / 12
• RES 1: 132.84 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 132.62 @ 05:35 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 131.54 Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 130.60 1.50 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 - Mar 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

Despite yesterday’s gains, a bearish threat in Bund futures remains present. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late last year and open 130.60, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a break of 133.48, Mar 27 high, is needed to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial resistance is 132.85, 50-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 119.050 High Feb 8
• RES 2: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.460 High Mar 12
• RES 1: 118.310 High Mar 27
• PRICE: 117.850 @ 05:44 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 117.340 Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 117.200 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)

Bobl futures remain below their recent highs. Key support to watch lies at 117.200, the Feb 29 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend that started early December last year. The recovery between Mar 18 - 27, appears to be a correction. A break of 118.310, the Mar 27 high, would expose key resistance at 118.790, the Feb 15 / Mar 8 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 3: 106.010 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 105.790/875 High Mar 25 / 12
• RES 1: 105.672 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 105.590 @ 05:38 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 105.490 Low Feb 29 / Apr 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 105.430 High Feb 20 (cont)
• SUP 3: 105.310 High Feb 26 (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.295 1.00 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing

A downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact. Attention is on key support at 105.490, the Feb 29 low and bear trigger. A clear break of this level would resume the downtrend that started in December last year and open 105.430, the Feb 20 high (cont). Initial firm resistance is at 105.790, the Mar 25 high. A break would highlight scope for a stronger correction and expose key resistance at 106.010, the Mar 8 high. A breach of this level would be bullish.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Bearish Outlook Despite Recent Bounce

• RES 4: 100.73 1.764 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 3: 100.50 1.618 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 100.05/100.37 High Mar 22 / 12 and a key S/T resistance
• RES 1: 99.37 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 98.88 @ Close Apr 9
• SUP 1: 98.05/97.96 Low Mar 15 / Apr 8
• SUP 2: 97.67 76.4% retracement of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally
• SUP 3: 97.42 Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: 96.83 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger

A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the contract traded lower Monday but has since recovered. Sights are on the key short-term support at 98.05, the Mar 15 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and signal scope for an extension towards 97.67, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 100.37, Mar 12 high. Initial resistance is 99.37, the Apr 4 high.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 119.55/120.28 High Mar 27 / 14
• RES 1: 118.75 High Apr 5
• PRICE: 118.51 @ Close Apr 9
• SUP 1: 117.10 Low Apr 3
• SUP 2: 116.52 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support

Price action last week in BTP futures resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and a breach of 118.33, the Mar 15 low. The break highlights a bearish threat and this week’s gains appear to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would open 116.52, the Feb 29 low and 116.15, the Feb 22 low and the key support. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 119.55, the Mar 27 high, would instead reinstate a bull cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Overbought Condition Unwinds

• RES 4: 5170.50 1.50 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5043.00/79.00 High Apr 4 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4972.00 @ 06:19 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 4933.00 Low Apr 5 / 9
• SUP 2: 4923.00 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 4872.00/4826.00 Low Mar 11 / 5
• SUP 4: 4771.00 Low Feb 22

The primary uptrend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. The move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The break of support around the 20-day EMA suggests potential for a deeper retracement. The next support lies at 4923.00, the Mar 19 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 5079.00, Apr 2 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Corrective Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 5434.54 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 17 low
• RES 3: 5428.25 1.00 proj of the Oct 27 - Dec 28 - May 1 price swing
• RES 2: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5308.50/33.50 High Apr 4 / 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 5263.25 @ 07:19 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: 5191.50 Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: 5153.24 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 5100.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 5018.00 Low Feb 21

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. The recent move down highlights a short-term corrective cycle and last week's sell-off reinforces this condition. The contract has breached bull channel support drawn from the Jan 17 low, and cleared the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would open the 50-day EMA, at 5153.24 and the next key support. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 5333.50, the Apr 1 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M4) Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: $96.16 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $94.94 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $92.96 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $91.91 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $89.47 @ 07:05 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: $86.82 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $84.19 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $79.70 - Low Feb 26
• SUP 4: $76.18 - Low Feb 5 and key S/T support

A bull cycle in Brent futures remains in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The recent breach of resistance at $88.51, the Sep 15 ‘23 high, reinforced bullish conditions and this has led to a break of the psychological $90.00 handle. Sights are on $92.96, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend. Initial firm support is $87.07, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (K4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $91.15 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $89.08 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $87.63 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $85.34 @ 07:16 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: $83.03 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $80.07/76.43 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $71.52 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.02 - Low Jan 3

A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s rally reinforced current conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has traded through $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high, paving the way for a climb towards the $90.00 handle further out. The next objective is $89.08, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $83.03, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Holding On To This Week’s Gains

• RES 4: $2429.0 - 2.50 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2405.5 - 2.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2376.5 - 2.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2365.4 - High Apr 9
• PRICE: $2359.3 @ 07:22 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: $2267.9/2234.8 - Low Apr 5 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2153.7 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal is trading at this week’s highs. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. The $2300.0 handle has been pierced. The next objective is $2376.5, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at $2234.8, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Impulsive Bull Cycle

• RES 4: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
• RES 3: $29.052 - 2.382 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $28.613 - 2.236 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $28.327 - High Apr 9
• PRICE: $28.179 @ 08:11 BST Apr 10
• SUP 1: $25.804 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $24.634/328 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 27
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

Silver rallied last week and has also traded higher this week. The latest rally has resulted in a clear break of resistance at 25.761, the Dec 4 high, strengthening bullish conditions. Note that key resistance at $26.135, May 5 ‘23 high, has also been cleared highlighting an important technical break. Sights are on $28.613 a Fibonacci projection point. Key support lies at $24.328, the Mar 27 low.