MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Pullback Pierces First Support

Price Signal Summary – Gold Pullback Pierces First Support

• S&P E-Minis have recovered from last Friday’s low. Support at the 20-day EMA of 4754.67 has recently been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish threat and open 4694.47, the lower band of a MA envelope. The primary trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains up and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a rising trend cycle. Key short-term support to watch lies at 4444.00, the 50-day EMA.
• GBPUSD is unchanged. The trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent gains. Attention is on resistance at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high and bull trigger. USDJPY is firmer but continues to trade below last Friday’s high and below the 50-day EMA - at 145.25. Trend signals remain bearish and the recent impulsive rally appears to be a correction. AUDUSD is unchanged and is trading closer to its recent lows. The recent move lower appears to be a correction and the medium-term trend direction remains up. Moving average studies highlight an uptrend.
• Gold traded lower Monday, extending the pullback from $2088.5, the Dec 28 high. Price is trading ahead of the next key support at $2012.8, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level, if seen, would expose key support at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and Monday’s sell-off reinforces the bear theme. Resistance to watch is $74.75, the 50-day EMA. The average was briefly pierced late December.
• Bund futures are consolidating. A weaker tone remains in place and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Weakness below the 20-day EMA risks a deeper correction, which would open the key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37. Gilt futures are consolidating and maintain a softer tone with the contract trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, suggesting scope for a continuation of the current bear cycle.

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.1139 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1077 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Jan 5 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• PRICE: 1.0932 @ 05:56 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 1.0900/77 Trendline drawn from the Nov 1 low / Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 1.0793 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0724 Low Dec 8
• SUP 4: 1.0712 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg

EURUSD remains in consolidation mode but trades closer to its recent lows. The pair is trading above the trendline - at 1.0900 - drawn off the Nov 1 low. MA studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting an uptrend and recent weakness is likely part of a correction. Furthermore, a recent golden cross in the DMA space (50- rising above the 200-dma), is a bullish signal. Support to watch is 1.0877, Friday’s low. The bull trigger is 1.1139, Dec 28 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2699 @ 06:11 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 1.2611/2592 Low Jan 03 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: 1.2449 Low Nov 22
• SUP 4: 1.2374 Low Nov 17

GBPUSD is unchanged. The trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent gains. Attention is on resistance at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.2881, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support lies at 1.2611, Jan 2 low. The 50-day EMA lies just below at 1.2592. Clearance of this support zone would highlight a short-term top.

EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20
• RES 3: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 0.8625/46 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8609 @ 06:27 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 0.8587 Low Jan 09
• SUP 2: 0.8571 Low Dec 15
• SUP 3: 0.8549 Low Dec 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 5

EURGBP maintains a short-term bearish tone and gains are considered corrective. The recent break of the 50-day EMA strengthens a bearish theme and a continuation lower would open 0.8571, the Dec 15 low, ahead of key support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 0.8715, the Dec 28 high. The 50-day EMA, at 0.8646, is the initial firm resistance to watch.

USDJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact, For Now

• RES 4: 147.32 High Dec 7
• RES 3: 146.59 High Dec 11
• RES 2: 145.97 High Jan 05 and short-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 145.25 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 144.95 @ 06:42 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 142.86 Low Jan 4
• SUP 2: 141.86 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 139.11 2.236 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing

USDJPY is firmer but continues to trade below last Friday’s high and below the 50-day EMA - at 145.25. Trend signals remain bearish and the recent impulsive rally appears to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 140.25, the Dec 28 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is 145.97, the Jan 5 high. A break of this level would be a bullish development.

EURJPY TECHS: Testing Resistance

• RES 4: 161.69 76.4% retracement of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg
• RES 3: 160.07 61.8% retracement of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg
• RES 2: 159.33 50 DMA
• RES 1: 159.00 High Jan 05
• PRICE: 158.51 @ 06:55 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 157.21 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 155.08/153.23 Low Jan 02 / Dec 07 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support

EURJPY has recovered from yesterday’s low. Last week, the cross pierced resistance at the 50-day EMA of 158.18 as well as the Dec 19 high of 158.57. A clear break of these two levels would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for a continuation higher. This would open 159.33, the 50-dma and 160.07, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a stronger reversal would instead expose support at 155.08, the Jan 2 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• PRICE: 0.6703 @ 07:55 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 0.6641 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 0.6609 Trendline support drawn from the Oct 26 low
• SUP 3: 0.6571 50.0% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec Upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6526 Low Dec 7 and key support

AUDUSD is unchanged and is trading closer to its recent lows. The recent move lower appears to be a correction and the medium-term trend direction remains up. Moving average studies highlight an uptrend and trendline support drawn from the late October low remains intact. The trendline lies at 0.6609 today and represents an important support. On the upside key resistance is unchanged at 0.6871, the Dec 28 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3538 50.0% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3481 200-dma
• RES 2: 1.3463 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3415/3437 High Jan 09 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 1.3389 @ 08:01 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 1.3229/3177 Low Jan 2 / Low Dec 27
• SUP 2: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.3038 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull phase

The broader USDCAD trend outlook remains bearish and the latest recovery is considered corrective. A continuation higher would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3463. This average represents an important resistance and a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme. For bears, a move lower would signal the end of the correction and attention would turn to 1.3177, the Dec 27 low and bear trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 139.39 3.764 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 137.96/138.84 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 136.16 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 135.37 @ 05:27 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 135.06 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 134.37 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 3: 133.42 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 132.89 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase

Bund futures are consolidating. A weaker tone remains in place and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Weakness below the 20-day EMA risks a deeper correction, which would open the key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37. Momentum studies are pointing south, highlighting the short-term bearish threat. On the upside, a resumption of gains would open 138.84, the Dec 27 high and a bull trigger. INitial resistance is at 136.16, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Breach Of The 20-Day EMA Highlights A Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24 (cont)
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 119.640/830 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 118.635 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 118220 @ 05:25 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 118.050 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 117.800 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 3: 117.773 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 117.510 Low Dec 4

A corrective cycle in Bobl futures remains intact. The recent move through the 20-day EMA highlights potential for a deeper pullback and this has exposed support at 117.800 ahead of the 50-day EMA at 117.773. Clearance of both support points would strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is 119.830, the Dec 27 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Trading At Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 106.774 1.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.698 1.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.640 High Dec 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.360 Low Jan 3
• PRICE: 106.095 @ 05:50 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 106.055 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 105.955 Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 4: 105.730 Low Nov 30

Schatz futures continue to trade closer to their recent lows. The contract has breached support around the 20-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation of the corrective cycle. Further weakness would open the key short-term support of 105.955, the Dec 13 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 106.640, the Dec 29 high.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Consolidating Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 103.94 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 103.33 High Dec 29
• RES 2: 101.98 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 100.91 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 100.39 @ Close Jan 9
• SUP 1: 99.60 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 98.97 High Dec 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 97.39 Low Dec 11
• SUP 4: 96.67 Low Dec 5

Gilt futures are consolidating and maintain a softer tone with the contract trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, suggesting scope for a continuation of the current bear cycle. This has exposed support at 98.97, the Dec 6 high. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 101.98, the Jan 3 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Bearish Short-Term Theme

• RES 4: 122.63 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.77 High Jan 4
• PRICE: 117.87 @ Close Jan 9
• SUP 1: 117.24 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 116.01 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.18 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle

The recent move down in BTP futures is considered corrective. However, price has traded through support around the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for a continuation lower near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA and a key support, at 116.01. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 119.77, the Jan 4 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 121.43, the Dec 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Watching Support

• RES 4: 4697.50 1.382 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4662.90 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 4599.00/4634.00 High Jab 2 / High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4482.00 @ 06:5 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 4444.00 Low Jan 1, the 50-day EMA and a key support area
• SUP 2: 4370.00 Low Nov 28
• SUP 3: 4334.00 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 - Dec 14 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4220.00 Low Nov 10

The primary trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains up and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a rising trend cycle. Key short-term support to watch lies at 4444.00, the 50-day EMA. A break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 4370.00, the Nov 28 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 4634.00, the Dec 14 high and bull trigger.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Trading Above Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 4915.11 1.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4900.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4854.75 1.00 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4841.50 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4786.75 @ 06:52 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 4702.00 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 4694.47 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• SUP 3: 4661.92 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4594.00 Low Nov 30

S&P E-Minis have recovered from last Friday’s low. Support at the 20-day EMA of 4754.67 has recently been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish threat and open 4694.47, the lower band of a MA envelope. A move through this support would expose the 50-day EMA, at 4661.92. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H4) Trading Below Resistance

• RES 4: $86.50 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $84.22 - High Nov 30
• RES 1: $79.41/81.45 - High Jan 4 / High Dec 26 and key resistance
• PRICE: $77.88 @ 06:58 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: $74.79 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $72.67/71.21 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.84 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

Brent futures are trading below key short-term resistance at $81.45, the Dec 26 high. The reversal off the late December highs means that price has not remained above the 50-day EMA. This suggests that the Dec 13 - 26 recovery was a correction and that the primary trend direction is down. Attention is on $72.67, the Dec 13 low and bear trigger. Clearance of $81.45 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

WTI TECHS: (G4) Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: $84.18 - High Oct 24
• RES 3: $82.64 - High Nov 3
• RES 2: $79.67 - High Nov 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $74.75/76.18 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 26
• PRICE: $72.58 @ 07:10 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: $69.28 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $67.98 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $65.24 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.79 - 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 6 - Oct 20 price swing

Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and Monday’s sell-off reinforces the bear theme. Resistance to watch is $74.75, the 50-day EMA. The average was briefly pierced late December. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. For bears, moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The trigger for a resumption of the trend is $67.98, Dec 13 low.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 2: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $2064.0/2088.5 - High Jan 5 / High Dec 28
• PRICE: $2026.4 @ 07:13 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: $2012.8 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold traded lower Monday, extending the pullback from $2088.5, the Dec 28 high. Price is trading ahead of the next key support at $2012.8, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level, if seen, would expose key support at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. For bulls, clearance of $2088.5 would reinstate the bull cycle that started Dec 13. This would open $2097.1, 76.4% of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg, ahead of key resistance and the Dec 4 all-time high of $2135.4.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Threat Following Trendline Break

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• PRICE: $22.907 @ 07:26 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: $22.510 - Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Recent weakness in Silver resulted in a break of a trendline drawn from the Oct 5 low. This highlights a bearish threat and exposes key support at $22.510, the Dec 13 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for a continuation lower and open $21.883, the Nov 13 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $24.606, the Dec 22 high. A move above this level would reinstate a bullish theme.