MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Trend Needle Points North

Price Signal Summary - Gold Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat       

• In the equity space, a bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains in play and last Thursday’s gains reinforce the current bullish condition. The contract has traded through a key and major resistance at 5785.00, the Jul 16 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the long-term uptrend. Sights are on the 5800.00 handle next. Initial support lies at 5657.35, the 20-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures  traded higher last week as the contract extended the recovery from the Sep 10 low. It is still possible that recent gains are corrective. MA studies are in a bear-mode position and this highlights a downtrend. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 4757.00, the Sep 6 / 10 lows. Key resistance is 5024.00, the Sep 3 high.                                                                                                          
• In FX, the short-term outlook in EURUSD remains bullish despite today’s pullback. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1088, has been pierced but remains intact for now. A  resumption of gains would signal scope for a move higher towards 1.1202, the Aug 26 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, a clear break of the 20-day EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. {GB} GBPUSD traded higher last week. Key resistance at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high, has been breached This break confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 1.3362 next, 1.618 projection of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing. Initial firm support is 1.3146, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY traded higher Friday and remains above its most recent low. However, short-term gains are considered corrective. Bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low last week. The recent breach of key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 139.00 next, 1.382 projection of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing. The next key resistance is 146.99, the 50-day EMA.         
• On the commodity front, a bullish structure in Gold remains intact and the metal has traded, once again, to a fresh all-time high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. The focus is on $2642.7 next, 2.236 projection of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing. Firm support lies at $2539.0, the 20-day EMA. In the oil space, WTI futures traded higher last week and maintained a firmer tone. The recovery since Sep 9, appears - for now - to be a correction. The next key resistance is $72.46, the 50-day EMA. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A reversal lower would refocus attention on $64.61, the Sep 10 low and bear trigger.  
• In the FI space, Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. The move down has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for a deeper retracement near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 133.60. Clearance of this average would undermine a bullish theme. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 135.66, the Aug 5 high. A bull cycle in Gilt futures is still in play, however, the pullback from last Tuesday’s peak highlights a correction. The bearish extension is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Support at 99.95, the 20-day EMA, has been breached. The clear break of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes 99.29, the Sep 9 low. A reversal higher would refocus sights on 101.54, Sep 17 high.

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