MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Key Bund Support Remains Exposed

Price Signal Summary - Key Bund Support Remains Exposed

• E-Mini S&P futures remain vulnerable. Key support lies at 4094.25, the Feb 24 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and expose the 4000.00 handle. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain vulnerable however a corrective cycle is still in play following last week’s recovery. The move higher is allowing an oversold condition to unwind.
• EURUSD continues to trade below resistance at 1.1121 - the Jan 28 low, a recent breakout level plus the Mar 10 high. While this level holds, a bearish threat remains present and attention is on key support at 1.0806, Mar 7 low. USDJPY has traded higher once again today. A bullish theme remains intact following last week’s break of resistance at 116.34/35, the Feb 10 / Jan 4 highs and the impulsive rally that has followed. AUDUSD is trading lower today as the pair extends the pullback from 0.7441, the Mar 7 high. The continuation lower suggests potential for a deeper correction.
• WTI futures are trading lower this morning as the contract extends the pullback from 130.50, the Mar 7 high. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the 50-day EMA, currently at $93.34. The all-time high print in Gold of $2075.5 on Aug 7 2020 following the pullback from last week’s Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The broader trend condition remains bullish and the pullback is considered corrective.
• Bund futures started the week on a softer note, trading lower again yesterday. The contract has cleared support at 161.50, the Feb 10 low. 161.00 has also been probed and this opens the psychological 160.00 handle. Gilt futures started the week on a softer note and traded lower. This marks an extension of the recent pullback from the recent Mar 1 high of 126.81.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.1280 Low Feb 14
• RES 3: 1.1220/32 50-day EMA / 61.8% of Feb 10 - Mar 7 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1121 Low Jan 28/High Mar 10 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 1.1100 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 1.0979 @ 06:15 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 1.0890/06 Low Mar 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 3: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0654 2.50 proj of the Jan - Mar - May 2021 price swing

EURUSD continues to trade below resistance at 1.1121 - the Jan 28 low, a recent breakout level plus the Mar 10 high. While this level holds, a bearish threat remains present and attention is on key support at 1.0806, Mar 7 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, a clear break of 1.1121 is required to signal scope for a stronger corrective rally that would open 1.1220, the 50-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Down

• RES 4: 1.3400 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3358 Low Jan 27
• RES 2: 1.3284 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3195 High Mar 10
• PRICE: 1.3039 @ 06:20 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 1.3000 Intraday low 1.2944
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2944/33 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band / Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD remains bearish and has touched 1.3000 today, a fresh bear cycle low. The outlook remains bearish following last week’s move lower that confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend that started early Jan 2021. A break of the 1.3000 handle would open 1.2954, a 1.50 projection of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3195, the Mar 10 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: 0.8553 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 0.8498/8504 High Dec 23 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8478 High Feb 7 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8436 Mar 10 High
• PRICE: 0.8422 @ 06:29 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 0.8356/17 20-day EMA / Low Mar 9
• SUP 2: 0.8278 Low Mar 7
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8131 Low Jun 27, 2016

EURGBP maintains a firmer tone and is trading near its recent highs. The cross last week traded above the key resistance at the Feb 25 high of 0.8406. This completed a 100% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 7 downleg and has strengthened the short-term bullish condition. The move higher signals scope for an extension towards the next resistance at the early February highs of 0.8478. Initial support to watch is seen at 0.8317, the Mar 9 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 119.38 3.382 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
• RES 3: 119.18 3.236 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 118.60/66 High Jan 3 ‘17 / Dec 15 ‘16 and key resistance
• RES 1: 118.45 Intraday high
• PRICE: 118.33 @ 06:46 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 117.28/116.35 Low Mar 14 / High Jan 4
• SUP 2: 115.80 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 114.41 Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: 114.16 Low Feb 02 and a bear trigger

USDJPY has traded higher once again today. A bullish theme remains intact following last week’s break of resistance at 116.34/35, the Feb 10 / Jan 4 highs and the impulsive rally that has followed. The break last week confirmed a resumption of the broader uptrend that started early Jan 2021. Attention is on the 118.60/66 key resistance zone. On the downside, initial support is seen at 117.28, Monday’s low.

EURJPY TECHS: Clears The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 131.91 High Feb 16
• RES 3: 131.08 76.4% Retracement Feb - Mar Downleg
• RES 2: 130.71 High Feb 23
• RES 1: 130.03 Intraday high
• PRICE: 129.84 @ 06:55 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 128.04 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 127.42 Low Mar 10
• SUP 3: 126.01 Low Mar 9
• SUP 4: 124.40 Low Mar 7 and a key support

EURJPY remains in a short-term uptrend following last week’s gains and the cross has traded higher once again today. The 61.8% retracement of the Feb - Mar downleg, at 129.81, has been probed and the 50-day EMA has been cleared. This signals potential for a climb above the 130.00 handle next towards 131.08, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm support is at 127.42, the Mar 10 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: 0.7532 High Nov 2, 2021
• RES 3: 0.7441 High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.7368 High Mar 10
• RES 1: 0.7245/7301 Low Mar 8 / High Mar 14
• PRICE: 0.7182 @ 07:12 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 0.7149 61.8% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 7 upleg
• SUP 2: 0.7095 Low Feb 24 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.7080 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 7 upleg
• SUP 4: 0.7052 Low Feb 4

AUDUSD is trading lower today as the pair extends the pullback from 0.7441, the Mar 7 high. The continuation lower suggests potential for a deeper correction and this means the price pattern on Mar 7 - a bearish shooting star candle - is still in play. The 50-day EMA has been cleared, reinforcing current conditions. This has opened 0.7095, the Feb 24 low. Initial resistance is seen at 0.7245, the Mar 8 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Eyeing Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3024 38.2% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘21 bear cycle
• RES 3: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 1: 1.2901 High Mar 8 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.2841 @ 08:09 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 1.2753/2694 20-day EMA / Low Mar 11
• SUP 2: 1.2587 Low Mar 3
• SUP 3: 1.2552 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally
• SUP 4: 1.2499 Low Jan 21

USDCAD is fimer this morning. The pair has recovered from Friday’s low of 1.2694 and this level is seen as a key short-term support. The recovery once again refocuses attention on resistance at 1.2901, Mar 8 high where a break would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend and open 1.2964, the Dec 20 high. Moving averages continue to suggest the trend remains up. A break of 1.2694 would alter the short-term picture.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Clears Key Support

• RES 4: 165.29 High Mar 9
• RES 3: 164.43 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 164.17 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 163.20 High Mar 11
• PRICE: 161.27 @ 05:00 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 160.90 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 160.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 159.81 123.6% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 rally
• SUP 4: 159.19 Low Nov 8 2018 (cont)

Bund futures started the week on a softer note, trading lower again yesterday. The contract has cleared support at 161.50, the Feb 10 low. This has strengthened the bearish theme and importantly, confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend and the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 161.00 has also been probed and this opens the psychological 160.00 handle. Initial resistance is at 163.20.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Approaching The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 134.080 High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 133.390 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 132.590 High Mar 9
• RES 1: 131.858 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.620 @ 05:11 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 130.410 Low Feb 8 and a key support
• SUP 2: 130.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 129.554 123.6% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 upleg
• SUP 4: 128.820 Low Dec 4 2015 (cont)

Bobl futures traded lower again Monday, extending last week’s retracement from 134.080, the Mar 7 high. Support at 132.130, the Mar 1 low and 131.726, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 rally, have been cleared. This suggests potential for a continuation lower and attention is on the key support at 130.410, the Feb 8 low and the bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is at 132.590, the Mar 9 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Trading At Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 112.300 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 112.210 High Mar 7 and short-term key resistance
• RES 2: 112.015 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 111.560/850 High Mar 11 / High Mar 9
• PRICE: 111.275 @ 05:17 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 111.245 Low Mar 14 and the intraday low
• SUP 2: 111.240 Low Feb 23 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 111.145 Low Feb 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 111.100 Round number support

Schatz futures are trading at their recent lows. It is still possible that last week’s move lower is a correction although the break of support at 111.655, Mar 3 low, suggests potential for a deeper pullback. This has opened 111.240, the Feb 23 low and a key short-term support. On the upside, a strong recovery would signal the end of the current bear leg and refocus attention on the key resistance at 112.210.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Key Support Beckons

• RES 4: 126.81 High Mar 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 125.85 High Mar 4
• RES 2: 124.60 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 123.52 High Mar 9
• PRICE: 121.40 @ Close Mar 14
• SUP 1: 121.34 Low Mar 14
• SUP 2: 121.10 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 120.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 119.75 123.6% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb

Gilt futures started the week on a softer note and traded lower Monday. This marks an extension of the recent pullback from the recent Mar 1 high of 126.81. The contract has breached support at 123.50, Mar 1 low and 122.04, the Feb 23 low. This has exposed the key support at 121.10, Feb 16 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, a strong rebound would ease the bearish threat. Initial firm resistance is seen at $123.52, the Mar 9 high.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Remains Soft

• RES 4: 147.93 High Jan 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 146.74 High Mar 1
• RES 2: 145.06 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 141.97/43.85 20-day EMA / High Mar 10
• PRICE: 139.28 @ Close Mar 14
• SUP 1: 138.99 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 138.60 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 138.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 137.52 Low May 18 2020 (cont)

BTP futures traded sharply lower Monday The recent break of support at 142.51, Mar 1 low, signalled an important intraday breach that led to a move below 140.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 16 - Mar 1 rally. This, together with the recent follow through, suggests scope for a continuation lower and has exposed key support at 138.60, Feb 16 low and the bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 143.85, Mar 10 high.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (M2): Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 3: 4578.50 High Feb 9 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4405.76 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4299.75/4326.75 20-day EMA / High Mar 11
• PRICE: 4160.00 @ 06:51 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 4094.25 Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3983.25 1.00 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 9 price swing

E-Mini S&P futures remain vulnerable. Key support lies at 4094.25, the Feb 24 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and expose the 4000.00 handle. The 20-day EMA, at 4299.75, still represents an important near-term resistance. Price has recently failed to breach and remain above this EMA. A clear break of it though would suggest scope for a stronger bounce.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Watching The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 4119.50 High Feb 21
• RES 2: 3976.20 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3810.30/3827.00 20-day EMA / High Mar 11
• PRICE: 3713.50 @ 06:10 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 3546.00/3380.00 Low Mar 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 3318.60 2.382 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 3246.30 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain vulnerable however a corrective cycle is still in play following last week’s recovery. The move higher is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. Resistance to watch is at 3810.30, the 20-day EMA. This has been probed and a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery towards the 50-day EMA at 3976.20. The latter EMA is a key resistance. The broader trend is bearish, the bear trigger is 3380.00.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $139.13 - High Mar 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $131.64 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $118.36 - High Mar 10
• RES 1: $113.91 - High Mar 11
• PRICE: $101.43 @ 05:25 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: $100.05 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $95.89 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $92.75 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $88.25 - Low Feb 18

Brent futures started the week on a softer note and the contract has traded lower again today. Price is through the 20-day EMA and this signals potential for an extension lower with the focus on the 50-day EMA at $95.89 - this EMA represents a key area of support. The current pullback is likely a correction and has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. Initial resistance is at 113.91, the Mar 11 high.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Has Cleared The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $130.50 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $126.84 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $114.88 - High Mar 10
• RES 1: $110-29 - High Mar 11
• PRICE: $98.36 @ 05:40 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: $96.70 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $93.34 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $90.06 - Low Feb 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: $87.46 - Low Feb 18

WTI futures are trading lower this morning as the contract extends the pullback from 130.50, the Mar 7 high. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the 50-day EMA, currently at $93.34. This EMA highlights a key area of support. The recent move lower is still considered corrective and has allowed a recent overbought signal to unwind. Initial resistance is at $110.29, the Mar 11 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $2119.3 - 3.382 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2104.6 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and the all-time high
• RES 1: $2009.2/2070.4 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8
• PRICE: $1933.3 @ 07:20 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: $1925.1 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $1901.5 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: $1886.5 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support

The all-time high print in Gold of $2075.5 on Aug 7 2020 following the pullback from last week’s Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The broader trend condition remains bullish and the pullback is considered corrective. The move is also allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this opens $1901.5 next, the Mar 1 low. On the upside, an initial firm short-term resistance is seen at $2009.2, the Mar 10 high.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $27.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $26.063/943 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $24.731 @ 08:18 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: $24.604 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $24.165 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $22.863 - Low Feb 11

Silver remains in an uptrend however the recent pullback - a correction - is still in play and signals potential for a deeper short-term pullback. The metal has breached the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA at 24.1651. This EMA marks an important support. A reversal higher and move back above $26.00 would refocus attention on the key resistance at 26.943, the Mar 8 high.