MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Oil Bull Cycle Extends

Price Signal Summary - Oil Bulls Remains In The Driver’s Seat

• For now, gains in the E-mini S&P contract are considered corrective and a bear cycle remains in play. Key resistance is at 4597.50, the Sep 1 high where a break is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. A stronger sell-off would open key support and bear trigger at 4397.75, the Aug 18 low. Clearance of this support would strengthen a bearish case. A bear cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains in play and the recent recovery is considered corrective. Price has recently pierced 4187.00, the Aug 18 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 4177.40, 61.8% of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg. Initial firm resistance is seen at 4278.60, the 20-day EMA.
• In FX, EURUSD conditions remain bearish and the recent consolidation appears to be a bear flag formation. The bull channel breakout last week reinforced a bearish condition and has opened 1.0668 next, the Jun 7 low. The channel is drawn from the Mar 15 low. Key resistance is at 1.0945, the Aug 30 high. Initial resistance is at 1.0797, the former channel base. The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point south. Last week’s breach of 1.2548, the Aug 25 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position too, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 1.2433, Jun 8 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2602, the 20-day EMA. The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. Resistance at 147.37, the Aug 29 high and a bull trigger, was breached last week, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and has opened 148.40 next, the Nov 4 2022 high. On the downside, 144.45 represents the key short-term support, the Sep 1 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded lower yesterday. Key support to watch lies at $1903.9, the Aug 25 low. A break of this level would be viewed as a bearish development and highlight the fact that the recovery between Aug 21 - Sep 1 has been a correction. This would expose $1884.9, the Aug 21 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $1929.5, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance is at $1953.0, the Sep 4 high. In the oil space, the uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and yesterday's gains reinforce this condition. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising trend. The focus is on the psychological $90.00 handle. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $83.91, the 20-day EMA.
• In the FI space, Bund futures are trading lower and the contract has breached 130.35, the Sep 7 low. This reinforces bearish conditions and extends last week’s move down that resulted in the break of a number of short-term support points. A continuation would expose 129.72, the Aug 15 low and a key support. Key resistance is at 132.91, the Aug 8 high. Initial resistance is at 131.22, the 20-day EMA. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish, despite the latest recovery. A move lower earlier last week resulted in a break of support at 94.14, the Aug 29 low. The breach undermines the recent bullish theme and highlights potential for a deeper retracement with next key support at 93.12,61.8% of the Aug 17 - Sep 1 rally. Key short-term resistance is 95.79, the Sep 1 high. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bullish theme.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Consolidation Appears To Be A Bear Flag

• RES 4: 1.1005 High Aug 11
• RES 3: 1.0945 High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
• RES 2: 1.0809/1.0875 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0797 Former channel support-now-resistance
• PRICE: 1.0748 @ 05:39 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 1.0686 Low Sep 7
• SUP 2: 1.0668 Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: 1.0635 Low May 31 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0611 38.2% Fib retracement Sep’22 - Jul’23 upleg

EURUSD conditions remain bearish and price is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent consolidation appears to be a bear flag formation. The bull channel breakout last week reinforced a bearish condition and has opened 1.0668 next, the Jun 7 low. The channel is drawn from the Mar 15 low. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode set-up, highlighting the market's current sentiment. Key resistance is at 1.0945, the Aug 30 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.2819 High Aug 10 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 1.2746 High Aug 30 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2602/2663 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.2548 High Sep 11 / Low Aug 25 and a recent breakout point
• PRICE: 1.2496 @ 05:58 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 1.2446 Low Sep 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 3: 1.2369 Low Jun 5
• SUP 4: 1.2308 1.764projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point south and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s breach of 1.2548, the Aug 25 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position too, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 1.2433, Jun 8 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2602, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8692 Trendline resistance drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 3: 0.8669 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.8639 High Aug 14
• RES 1: 0.8617 100-dma
• PRICE: 0.8405 @ 06:25 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 0.8558 Low Sep 11
• SUP 2: 0.8524 Low Sep 06
• SUP 3: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8486 1.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP has traded higher this week and the climb undermines the recent bearish theme. The cross has breached resistance at 0.8611, the Aug 30 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for gains towards 0.8639, the Aug 14 high. Note that the 100-day MA is at 0.8617 and represents an important resistance. Initial key support to watch lies at 0.8524, the Sep 5 low. A break would be a bearish development.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 148.85 High Oct 31 2022
• RES 3: 148.60 2.236 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 148.40 High Nov 4 2022
• RES 1: 147.87 High Sep 7 / 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 147.37 @ 06:40 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 145.91/07 Low Sep 11 / High Jun 30
• SUP 2: 144.45 Low Sep 1 and key support
• SUP 3: 144.29 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 143.30 Low Aug 10

The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. Resistance at 147.37, the Aug 29 high and a bull trigger, was breached last week. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 148.40 next, the Nov 4 2022 high. On the downside, 144.45 represents the key short-term support, the Sep 1 low. A break of this level is required to highlight a short-term top.

EURJPY TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 158.65/159.76 Intraday high / High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 158.34 @ 06:50 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 156.59 Low Sep 11
• SUP 2: 156.57 38.2% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 rally
• SUP 3: 155.54 Low Aug 3
• SUP 4: 154.61 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 rally

The trend outlook in EURJPY remains bullish. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA - at 156.89. This average has been pierced. A clear breach of it would undermine the uptrend and highlight a possible short-term reversal. On the upside, the next bull trigger is unchanged at 159.76, the Aug 30 high where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This would open 160.66, a Fibonacci projection.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.6535 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1 and the key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6445 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6408 @ 007:52 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 0.6357 Low Sep 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6287 2.00 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Key support and the bear trigger at 0.6365, the Aug 17 low, was pierced last week. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for weakness towards 0.6272, the Nov 3 2022 low. Key short-term resistance to watch has been defined at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3731 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3718 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
• RES 1: 1.3639/95 High Sep 11 / 7
• PRICE: 1.3569 @ 07:27 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 1.3544/3490 Low Sep 12 / 1
• SUP 2: 1.3468 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3352 Low Aug 7
• SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2

The uptrend in USDCAD remains intact and the pullback from last week’s high is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and resistance at 1.3655, the May 26 high, has been cleared. A resumption of gains would expose 1.3718, a trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high and the next key resistance. Key support has been defined at 1.3490, the Sep 1 low. A break would signal a short-term top.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Trades Through Last Week’s Low

• RES 4: 132.91 High Aug 8
• RES 3: 132.78 High Sep 1
• RES 2: 131.82 High Sep 4
• RES 1: 131.22 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.44 @ 05:00 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 130.27 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 129.93 Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: 129.72 Low Aug 15 and key support
• SUP 4: 129.30 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures are trading lower and the contract has breached 130.35, the Sep 7 low. This reinforces bearish conditions and extends last week’s move down that resulted in the break of a number of short-term support points. Note that moving average studies remain in a bear mode position, highlighting a primary downtrend. A continuation would expose 129.72, the Aug 15 low and a key support. Key resistance is at 132.91, the Aug 8 high.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 117.610 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 117.230 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 116.890 High Sep 8 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 116.640 High Sep 12
• PRICE: 116.230 @ 5:16 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 116.170 Low Aug 21 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 116.000 Low Aug 15
• SUP 3: 115.620 1.236 retracement of the Aug 15 - Sep 1 climb
• SUP 4: 115.385 1.382 retracement of the Aug 15 - Sep 1 climb

Bobl futures have gapped lower today and resumed their downtrend. Price has breached support at 116.320, the Sep 7 low. This reinforces bearish conditions and a continuation lower would expose 116.00, the Aug 15 low and the next key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 116.890, the Sep 8 high, where a break is required to signal a possible base.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Clears Support

• RES 4: 105.580 High Aug 24 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 105.395 High Sep 5
• RES 1: 105.240/310 High Sep 12 / 8
• PRICE: 105.055 @ 05:31 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 105.041 1.236 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 2: 105.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 104.980 1.382 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.930 1.50 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing

Schatz futures maintain a bearish tone and today’s break lower reinforces this theme. The contract has cleared support at 105.130, the Sep 7 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 105.00 handle. A break would open 104.980, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm resistance has been defined at 105.310, the Sep 8 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Recent Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 96.19 High Jul 31(cont)
• RES 3: 95.82 High Aug 10 (cont)
• RES 2: 95.79 High Sep 1 and key resistance
• RES 1: 95.06 Intraday high
• PRICE: 95.04 @ 09:47 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 94.05/93.36 Low Sep 11 / 6
• SUP 2: 93.12 61.8 retracement of the Aug 17 - Sep 1 rally
• SUP 3: 92.56 Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: 91.47 Low Aug 17 and key support

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish, despite the latest recovery. A move lower earlier last week resulted in a break of support at 94.14, the Aug 29 low. The breach undermines the recent bullish theme and highlights potential for a deeper retracement with next key support at 93.12, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance is 95.79, the Sep 1 high. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bullish theme.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.48/60 High Jul 19 / Jun 26 and key resistance (cont)
• RES 2: 116.86 High Jul 24 (cont)
• RES 1: 113.84/115.56 20-day EMA / High Aug 24 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 112.64 @ 07:46 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 112.37 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 112.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 111.38 2.618 proj of the Aug 24 - 28 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 110.77 3.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 28 - 31 price swing

A bearish theme in BTP futures remains intact following last week’s move lower. The contract has cleared support at 113.97, the Aug 28 low and the continuation lower exposed 112.60, the Aug 17 low and a key support.This level has been pierced today, a clear break would strengthen bearish conditions and open 112.00. Initial resistance is seen at 113.84, the 20-day EMA and key resistance is at 115.56, the Aug 24 high.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z3) Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 112-24+ High Jul 27
• RES 3: 112-14 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 112-00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 110-11+/111-12+ 20-day EMA / High Sep 1
• PRICE: 109-26 @ 11:21 BST Sep 12
• SUP 1: 109-19 Low Sep 7
• SUP 2: 109-09+ Low Aug 25 / 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108-20 1.000 proj of the Jul 18 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing
• SUP 4: 107.23 1.236 proj of the Jul 18 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing

The trend direction in Treasuries remains down. The recent move lower signals the end of the corrective recovery between Aug 22 - Sep 1 and a key resistance has been defined at 111-12+, the Sep 1 high. Moving average studies continue to highlight a medium-term downtrend. An extension lower would signal scope for 109-09+, Aug 22 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4420.00 High Aug 10
• RES 2: 4358.00 Aug 30 high
• RES 1: 4278.60/4309.60 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 4222.00 @ 05:47 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 2: 4122.00 Low Mar 28
• SUP 3: 4098.10 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4040.00 Low Mar 27

A bear cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and the recent recovery is considered corrective. Price has recently pierced key support at 4187.00, the Aug 18 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 4177.40 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance has been defined at 4358.00, the Aug 30 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 4278.60, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4685.25 High Jul 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4617.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 sell-off
• RES 2: 4597.50 High Sep 1 and a near-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 4553.25 High Sep 6
• PRICE: 4508.50 @ 06:45 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: 4482.00 Low Aug 29
• SUP 2: 4397.75 Low Aug 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4378.75 Low Jun 9
• SUP 4: 4352.50 Low Jun 8

For now, gains in the E-mini S&P contract are considered corrective and a bear cycle remains in play. Key resistance has been defined at 4597.50, the Sep 1 high where a break is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. A stronger resumption of weakness would signal scope for a move towards the key support and bear trigger at 4397.75, the Aug 18 low. Clearance of this support would strengthen a bearish case.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X3) Heading North

• RES 4: $100.00 - Key psychological round number
• RES 3: $96.95 - High Nov 14 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $94.79 - High Nov 16
• RES 1: $92.91 - High Nov 17 2022 (cont)
• PRICE: $92.31 @ 06:22 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: $87.59 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $84.26 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $81.61 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $77.84 - Low Jul 17

The uptrend in Brent futures remains intact and yesterday’s gains reinforce this condition. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on $92.91 next, the Nov 17 2022 high (cont). On the downside, initial firm support to watch is at the 20-EMA which intersects at $87.59 today.

WTI TECHS: (V3) Approaching $90.00

• RES 4: $94.66 - 2.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 3: $92.17 - High Nov 8 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $89.64 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $89.39 @ 09:54 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: $83.91/80.40 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: $73.60 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: $69.72 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $66.83 - Low Jun 12 and key support

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and yesterday's gains reinforce this condition. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising trend. The focus is on the psychological $90.00 handle. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $83.91, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: $1999.6 - Low May 5
• RES 3: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1963.3 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg
• RES 1: $1929.5/53.0 - 50-day EMA / High Sep 4 and key resistance
• PRICE: $1919.7 @ 07:06 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: $1903.9 - Low Aug 25
• SUP 2: $1884.9 - Low Aug 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg

Gold traded lower yesterday. Key support to watch lies at $1903.9, the Aug 25 low. A break of this level would be viewed as a bearish development and highlight the fact that the recovery between Aug 21 - Sep 1 has been a correction. This would expose $1884.9, the Aug 21 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $1929.5, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance is at $1953.0, the Sep 4 high.

SILVER TECHS: Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $26.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.149 - High Jul 27
• RES 1: $24.020/25.014 - High Sep 5 / High Aug 30
• PRICE: $23.827 @ 07:19 BST Sep 13
• SUP 1: $22.667 - Low Aug 21
• SUP 2: $22.227 - Low Aug 15 and key support
• SUP 3: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver maintains a softer tone and is trading lower today. The metal has recently breached $23.413, the Aug 23 low. The break signals scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards $22.227, the Aug 15 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on resistance at $25.014 and $26.267, the Aug 30 and Jul 20 highs respectively. The latter is a key resistance.