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JGB TECHS

(Z1) Bearish Trend Condition

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Bearish Price Sequence

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Off Recent Highs

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS

(Z1)‌‌ Support Appears Exposed

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Price Signal Summary - Oil Bulls Still In Control

  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis traded lower again yesterday, extending the corrective pullback from 4539.50. The contract has recently breached its 20-day EMA and this signals potential for a pullback towards and test of the key 50-day EMA at 4407.80. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating. The contract traded to a fresh trend high of 4252.00 last week confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This opens 4294.20, 1.236 projection of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 swing.
  • In FX, EURUSD got a minor reprieve after softer-than-expected August CPI data yesterday, however the rally was short-lived. The near-term outlook remains bearish and technical signals continue to point south. GBPUSD traded solidly ahead of the London close yesterday and probed resistance at 1.3892, Sep 3 high before fading. The sharp reversal from yesterday's high has defined a new key S/T resistance at 1.3913 where a clear break is required to confirm a resumption of bullish activity.
  • On the commodity front, Gold continues to trade above recent lows. The yellow metal last week failed to tackle a key resistance at $1834.1, Jul 15 high and a bull trigger. A break of this resistance would strengthen the current bullish theme and pave the way for a climb towards $1863.3, a Fibonacci retracement. WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook and the contract is holding onto recent gains. The recovery from the Aug 23 low defined a key S/T support at $61.74, Aug 23 low where a break is required to reinstate a broader bearish theme.
  • In FI, Bund futures maintain a weaker tone and the contract traded lower yesterday. A bearish theme follows last week's move through 172.00. The break lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend from Aug 5 and paves the way for a deeper retracement. Gilt futures traded lower yesterday before finding support. The outlook remains bearish though following last week's extension lower that resulted in a break of former support at 128.11, Sep 1 low and 128.00.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

  • RES 4: 1.1965 50.0% retracement of the May - Aug sell-off
  • RES 3: 1.1945/53 High Jun 281.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 1.1909 High Jul 30 / Sep 03 and a key resistance
  • RES 1: 1.1851 High Sep 8 / Sep 10
  • PRICE: 1.1806 @ 06:05 BST Sep 15
  • SUP 1: 1.1770/58 Low Sep 13 / 61.8% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
  • SUP 2: 1.1735/1664 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
  • SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD got a minor reprieve after softer-than-expected August CPI data yesterday, however the rally was short-lived. The near-term outlook remains bearish and technical signals continue to point south. The focus is on 1.1758, a Fibonacci retracement and 1.1735, the Aug 27 low. A break of 1.1735 would strengthen a bearish case and open 1.1664, Aug 20 low and the bear trigger. Key resistance is unchanged at 1.1909, Jul 30 and Sep 3 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Fails To Hold Onto Gains

  • RES 4: 1.4001 High Jun 23
  • RES 3: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
  • RES 2: 1.3958 High Aug 4
  • RES 1: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and the intraday bull trigger
  • PRICE: 1.3807 @ 06:12 BST Sep 15
  • SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Sep 8 and key S/T support
  • SUP 2: 1.3680 Low Aug 27
  • SUP 3: 1.3602 Low Aug 20
  • SUP 4: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD traded solidly ahead of the London close yesterday and probed resistance at 1.3892, Sep 3 high before fading. The sharp reversal from yesterday's high has defined a new key S/T resistance at 1.3913 where a clear break is required to confirm a resumption of bullish activity. This would open 1.3958, Aug 4 high ahead of a key resistance at 1.3983, Jul 30 high. Key support is unchanged at 1.3727, Sep 8 low. A break would be bearish.

EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

  • RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
  • RES 3: 0.8659 High Jul 21
  • RES 2: 0.8614/18 High Sep 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 20 - Aug 10 sell-off
  • RES 1: 0.8560 Intraday high
  • PRICE: 0.8552 @ 06:20 BST Sep 15
  • SUP 1: 0.8511 Low Sep 13 / 14
  • SUP 2: 0.8506/02 Low Jul 19 / 76.4% of the Aug 10 - Sep 7 rally
  • SUP 3: 0.8484 Low Aug 16
  • SUP 4: 0.8450 Low Aug 10 and the bear trigger

The EURGBP outlook remains bearish despite recent gains. Key short-term support at 0.8543, Aug 24 low was cleared last week exposing 0.8506 and 0.8484 further out, the Jul 19 and Aug 16 lows respectively. 0.8450, the Aug 10 low marks the key support where a break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. The key short-term resistance is at 0.8614, the Sep 7 high. A break of this level would strengthen a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Trading Sideways

  • RES 4: 111.66 High Jul 2 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 110.82 High Jul 7
  • RES 2: 110.80 High Aug 11 and a key resistance
  • RES 1: 110.45/46 High Sep 8 / High Aug 13
  • PRICE: 109.61 @ 06:25 BST Sep 15
  • SUP 1: 109.53/41 Low Sep 14 / Low Aug 24
  • SUP 2: 109.11/108.72 Low Aug 16 / Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
  • SUP 4: 108.47 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally

USDJPY remains range bound. The near-term outlook is unchanged and a bearish risk is present. Key support to watch is unchanged at 108.72, Aug 4 low where a break would strengthen a bearish case and open 108.47, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, the level to breaks remains 110.80, Aug 11 high. A break would instead open key resistance at 111.66, Jul 2 high. Initial resistance is at 110.45/46.

EURJPY TECHS: Softer Tone

  • RES 4: 132.43 High Jul 1
  • RES 3: 131.77 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Aug sell-off
  • RES 2: 131.09/42 High Jul 13 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 1: 130.34/75 High Sep 9 / High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 129.35 @ 06:36 BST Sep 15
  • SUP 1: 129.16 Low Aug 27
  • SUP 2: 129.01 61.8% retracement of the Aug 19 - Sep 3 rally
  • SUP 3: 128.60 Low Aug 24
  • SUP 4: 127.94 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger

EURJPY is weaker following last week's pullback and this week's follow through. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 130.75, Sep 3 high and marks the bull trigger. A deeper sell-off would expose 129.01, a Fibonacci retracement and a move through this level would signal scope for a test of key support at 127.94, Aug 19 low. For bulls, clearance of 130.75 is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Aug 19.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Correction Extends

  • RES 4: 0.7591 61.8% of the May - Aug sell-off / High Jul 13
  • RES 3: 0.7534 High Jul 7
  • RES 2: 0.7499/7503 50.0% of the May - Aug sell-off / High Jul 13
  • RES 1: 0.7410/78 High Sep 10 / High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 0.7322 @ 06:41 BST Sep 15
  • SUP 1: 0.7292 50.0% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
  • SUP 2: 0.7248 61.8% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
  • SUP 3: 0.7222/7106 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend

AUDUSD weakened further Tuesday as the current corrective pullback extends. The pair has breached its 20-day EMA and a deeper pullback would open 0.7292 and 0.7248, Fibonacci retracements. For bulls, 0.7478, the Sep 3 high, marks the trigger for a resumption of the upleg that started Aug 20. A break would open the 0.7499/7503 resistance zone and establish a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

USDCAD TECHS: Looking For Gains

  • RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
  • RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
  • RES 2: 1.2834/2949 High Aug 23 / High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 1.2762 High Sep 8
  • PRICE: 1.2690 @ 06:47 BST Sep 15
  • SUP 1: 1.2583 Low Sep 10
  • SUP 2: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support
  • SUP 4: 1.2303 Low Jul 6

USDCAD is consolidating but continues to display a stronger bullish short-term condition following the recent recovery from 1.2494, Sep 3 low. Initial resistance is at 1.2762, Sep 8 high where a break would open 1.2834, Aug 23 high and the 1.2949 bull trigger, Aug 20 high. Moving average conditions are in bull mode, reinforcing a bullish theme. On the downside, clearance of 1.2494 is required to alter the picture.

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Outlook Remains Bearish

  • RES 4: 173.93 High Aug 25
  • RES 3: 173.93 High Aug 25
  • RES 2: 172.76 High Sep 2 and 3
  • RES 1: 172.48 High Sep 9 and key near-term resistance
  • PRICE: 171.88 @ 05:22 BST Sep 15
  • SUP 1: 171.33 Low Sep 14
  • SUP 2: 171.30 2.382 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
  • SUP 3: 171.16 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
  • SUP 4: 171.00 Round number support

Bund futures maintain a weaker tone and the contract traded lower yesterday. A bearish theme follows last week's move through 172.00. The break lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend from Aug 5 and paves the way for a deeper retracement. Attention remains on 171.30 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 172.48, Sep 9 high. A break would ease the current bearish sentiment.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Needle Still Points South

  • RES 4: 136.150 High Aug 24
  • RES 4: 136.030 High Aug 30 , 31
  • RES 3: 135.870 High Sep 3
  • RES 2: 135.660 High Sep 7 and 9 and key near-term resistance
  • PRICE: 135.480 @ 04:55 BST Sep 15
  • SUP 1: 135.340 Low Sep 14
  • SUP 2: 135.324 1.764 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
  • SUP 3: 135.230 2.00 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
  • SUP 4: 135.136 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing

Bobl futures outlook remains bearish and the contract edged lower yesterday. Last week's sell-off marked an extension of the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs, signalling scope for a continuation lower. The focus remains on 135.324 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is unchanged at 135.660, Sep 7 and 9 high where a break is required to ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Bears Still In Charge

  • RES 4: 112.350 High Aug 24
  • RES 3: 112.340 High Aug 31 and key near-term resistance
  • RES 2: 112.305 High Sep 3
  • RES 1: 112.270 High Sep 9 and 10
  • PRICE: 112.250 @ 05:33 BST Sep 15
  • SUP 1: 112.215 Low Sep 9 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 112.206 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
  • SUP 3: 112.200 Round number support
  • SUP 4: 112.197 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a bearish cycle despite gains on Sep 9 - the move higher is considered a correction. Weakness early last week reinforced a bearish condition. The move lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the bear cycle that started Aug 5. Further weakness is likely with the focus on 112.206 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is unchanged at 112.270, Sep 9 and 10 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Downtrend Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 129.05 High Aug 31
  • RES 3: 128.77 High Sep 3
  • RES 2: 128.42 High Sep 7
  • RES 1: 128.18 High Sep 10, 14 and key near-term resistance
  • PRICE: 128.04 @ Close Sep 14
  • SUP 1: 127.48 Low Sep 14
  • SUP 2: 127.39 1.50 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
  • SUP 3: 127.25 Low Jun 23 (cont)
  • SUP 4: 126.91 Low Jun 17 (cont)

Gilt futures traded lower yesterday before finding support. The outlook remains bearish though following last week's extension lower that resulted in a break of former support at 128.11, Sep 1 low and 128.00. Yesterday's fresh low reinforces a bearish theme. The focus is on 127.39 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 128.18, Sep 10 high.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Corrective Cycle

  • RES 4: 155.71 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger (cont)
  • RES 3: 155.68 High Aug 25
  • RES 2: 155.14 High Aug 31
  • RES 1: 154.63 High Sep 14
  • PRICE: 154.51 @ Close Sep 14
  • SUP 1: 153.66 Low Sep 14
  • SUP 2: 152.94/84 Low Sep 9 / 50.0% of Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)
  • SUP 3: 152.66 Low Jul 15 (cont)
  • SUP 4: 152.16 61.8% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)

BTP futures trend conditions remain bearish despite the strong bounce on Sep 9, with the contract holding onto these recent gains for now. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that signals potential for a continuation lower remains intact. The focus is on 152.84 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, further gains would open resistance at 155.14, the Aug 31 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Consolidating

  • RES 4: 4341.40 1.382 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
  • RES 3: 4294.20 1.236 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
  • RES 2: 4285.53 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 1: 4252.00 High Sep 6 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 4195.50 @ 06:00 BST Sep 15
  • SUP 1: 4132.50 Low Sep 9
  • SUP 2: 4078.00 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 4026.20 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Aug 13 rally
  • SUP 4: 3944.00 Low Jul 21

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating. The contract traded to a fresh trend high of 4252.00 last week confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This opens 4294.20, 1.236 projection of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 swing. Price has since retreated and a corrective phase is playing out. Attention is on 4138.50, the Aug 26 low. It has been probed and a clear break would expose 4078.00, Aug 19 low and a key support. 4132.50 is the intraday bear trigger.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Approaching The 50-Day EMA

  • RES 4: 4650.60 1.236 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
  • RES 3: 4600.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 4591.25 1.000 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
  • RES 1: 4519.75/39.50 High Sep 9 / High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 4441.25 @ 06:51 BST Sep 15
  • SUP 1: 4434.50 Low Sep 13
  • SUP 2: 4407.80 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 4339.75 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 4224.00 Low Jul 19 and key support

S&P E-minis traded lower again yesterday, extending the corrective pullback from 4539.50. The contract has recently breached its 20-day EMA and this signals potential for a pullback towards and test of the key 50-day EMA at 4407.80. The 50-day EMA still represents a key trend support parameter for bulls. A clear break would be bearish. On the upside, initial resistance is at 4519.75, Sep 9.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X1) Heading North

  • RES 4: $75.20 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: $75.13 - High Jul 14
  • RES 2: $74.84 - High Jul 30
  • RES 1: $74.28 - High Sep 14
  • PRICE: $74.15 @ 06:55 BST Sep 15
  • SUP 1: $71.79/70.88 - 20-day EMA / Low Sep 8
  • SUP 2: $69.77/$68.13 - Low Aug 26 / Low Aug 24
  • SUP 3: $64.20 - Low Aug 23
  • SUP 4: $63.54 - Low May 21 and a key support

Brent futures are firmer and have traded above key resistance at $73.69, the Sep 3 high. Note that price has also traded above its bear channel top drawn off the Jul 6 high. A break of $73.69 not only confirms a resumption of the recent uptrend but also confirms the channel breakout. This has strengthened a bullish argument and opens $74.84 next, the Jul 30 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $70.88, Sep 8 low.

WTI TECHS: (V1) Focus Is On The Bear Channel Top

  • RES 4: $75.00 - Round number resistance
  • RES 3: $74.77 - High Jul 7 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: $73.52 - High Jul 30
  • RES 1: $71.30 - Bear channel top drawn from the Jul 6 high
  • PRICE: $70.95 @ 07:11 BST Sep 15
  • SUP 1: $68.80 - 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: $67.56 - Low Sep 9
  • SUP 3: $65.41 - Low Aug 24
  • SUP 4: $61.74 - Low Aug 23 and key support

WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook and the contract is holding onto recent gains. The recovery from the Aug 23 low defined a key S/T support at $61.74, Aug 23 low where a break is required to reinstate a broader bearish theme. Further gains are likely with $70.74 cleared, 76.4.% of the Jul 30 - Aug 23 sell-off. The focus is on $71.30, the bear channel top drawn from the Jul 6 high. Initial firm support lies at $67.56, Sep 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Holding Above Recent Lows

  • RES 4: $1877.7 - High Jun 14
  • RES 3: $1863.3 - High Jun 16 and 76.4% of the Jun 1 - Aug 9 sell-off
  • RES 2: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
  • RES 1: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: $1803.4 @ 07:15 BST Sep 15
  • SUP 1: $1781.8/1774.5 - Low Sep 14 / Low Aug 19
  • SUP 2: $1751.7 - Low Aug 13
  • SUP 3: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10
  • SUP 4: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger

Gold continues to trade above recent lows. The yellow metal last week failed to tackle a key resistance at $1834.1, Jul 15 high and a bull trigger. A break of this resistance would strengthen the current bullish theme and pave the way for a climb towards $1863.3, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support is unchanged at $1774.5, Aug 19 low. Clearance of this level would instead signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

  • RES 4: $25.690 - 50.0% retracement of the May - Aug sell-off
  • RES 3: $25.206 - High Jun 8
  • RES 2: $24.867/967 - High Sep3 / 38.2% of the May - Aug sell-off
  • RES 1: $24.411 - High Sep 8
  • PRICE: $23.744 @ 07:20 BST Sep 15
  • SUP 1: $23.388 - Low Sep 13
  • SUP 2: $22.878 - Low Aug 20
  • SUP 3: $22.626 - Low Aug 09 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020

Silver has pulled away from recent highs. The metal recently tested its 50-day EMA currently at 24.561. This EMA however capped gains. A clear breach of it would strengthen the short-term bullish theme and open $24.967 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the metal has cleared $23.758, Sep 1 low. This signals a resumption of bearish activity and opens $22.626, Aug 9 low and the bear trigger.