MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Oil Futures Bull Cycle Extends

Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Oil Futures Remains Intact

• The E-mini S&P contract maintains a firmer short-term tone. Price has traded above resistance at 4526.29, the base of a bull channel, drawn from the Mar 13 low that was breached on Aug 16. A clear break of this level would strengthen the upleg and open 4560.75, the Aug 4 high. Initial support to watch lies at 4455.40, the 50-day EMA. A return below the average would be a bearish development. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain closer to recent highs despite the latest pullback. The contract has traded above resistance at the 50-day EMA at 4329.9. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 4420.00. The bull trigger is 4358.00, the Aug 30 high. On the downside, a breach of 4187.00, the Aug 18 low, would be a bearish development and confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
• In FX, EURUSD traded higher Wednesday resulting in a print above 1.0926, the 50-day EMA. However, the pair has failed to hold on to this week's highs and reversed lower yesterday. A continuation would refocus attention on the key support at 1.0780, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 15 low and a pivot point. A clear channel breakout would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.0733, Jun 12 low. Clearance of the 50-day EMA would be bullish. GBPUSD traded higher Wednesday and this resulted in a print above 1.2703, the 20-day EMA. The break higher exposes key resistance at 1.2819, the Aug 10 high. The trend outlook is bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent break of support at 1.2621, the Aug 14 low and 1.2591, the Jun 29 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The bear trigger is at 1.2548, the Aug 25 low. USDJPY has pulled back from its recent highs - the move lower is considered corrective. The uptrend remains intact and this week’s fresh cycle high has reinforced bullish conditions. The focus is on 147.49, a Fibonacci projection. A break would open 148.40, the Nov 4 2022 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode condition, reflecting current positive market sentiment. The first key support to watch lies at 145.06, the 20-day EMA.
• On the commodity front, a short-term correction in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA - at $1931.5. This strengthens the current bull cycle and signals scope for a stronger recovery. Attention turns to $1948.3, 61.8% of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg. It has been pierced, a clear break would open $1963.3, the 76.4% retracement. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $1903.9, the Aug 25 low. In the oil space, the uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and yesterday’s gains reinforce this theme. Price is approaching key resistance at $84.16, the Aug 10 high. A clear break would be bullish and confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This would open $85.24, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch is $80.43, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal a short-term top and expose the 50-day EMA at $78.18.
• In the FI space, a strong rally in Bund futures on Aug 23 resulted in a break of resistance at the 20- and 50-day EMA values. That move higher continues to threaten the recent bearish theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery. Yesterday’s gains reinforce this theme. This has exposed 133.45, the Aug 8 high and the next key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 131.20, the Aug 23 low. A break of this level would instead be seen as a bearish development. Gilt futures traded higher Thursday and cleared resistance at 95.11, the Aug 24 high. This strengthens the current bull cycle and signals scope for a stronger corrective phase. The break opens 95.82, the Aug 10 high (cont). On the downside, initial support lies at 94.14, the Aug 29 low. A break would signal a possible reversal. The key support and bear trigger lies at 91.47, the Aug 17 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Watching Channel Support

• RES 4: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1005 High Aug 11
• RES 1: 1.0926/45 50-day EMA / High Aug 30
• PRICE: 1.0847 @ 05:56 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 1.0780/66 Channel base drawn from Mar 15 / Low Aug 25
• SUP 2: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 1.0668 Low Jun 7
• SUP 4: 1.0635 Low May 31 and a key support

EURUSD traded higher Wednesday resulting in a print above 1.0926, the 50-day EMA. The pair has failed to hold on to this week's highs and reversed lower yesterday. A continuation would refocus attention on the key support at 1.0780, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 15 low and a pivot point. A clear channel breakout would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.0733, Jun 12 low. Clearance of the 50-day EMA would be bullish.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Above The Recent Low

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2887 High Jul 28
• RES 2: 1.2819 High Aug 10 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.2746 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 1.2668 @ 06:05 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 1.2548/21 Low Aug 25 / 1.382 of Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 1.2369 Low Jun 5

GBPUSD traded higher Wednesday and this resulted in a print above 1.2703, the 20-day EMA. The break higher exposes key resistance at 1.2819, the Aug 10 high. The trend outlook is bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent break of support at 1.2621, the Aug 14 low and 1.2591, the Jun 29 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The bear trigger is at 1.2548, the Aug 25 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8701 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8669 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.8638 100-dma
• RES 1: 0.8611 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 0.8562 @ 06:16 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 0.8553 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8536/8493 Low Aug 24 / 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8477 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8454 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 2022 bull leg

EURGBP edged lower into the Thursday close. The contract has this week traded above resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8577. A clear break of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bullish condition and suggest scope for a stronger correction, towards 0.8669, the Aug 11 high. Note that moving average studies continue to highlight a medium-term downtrend, the bear trigger lies at 0.8493, the Aug 23 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 148.60 2.236 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 148.40 High Nov 4 2022
• RES 2: 147.49 2.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 147.37 High Aug 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 145.56 @ 06:29 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 145.06 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 144.54 Low Aug 23
• SUP 3: 143.22 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 141.52 Low Aug 7

USDJPY has pulled back from its recent highs - the move lower is considered corrective. The uptrend remains intact and this week’s fresh cycle high has reinforced bullish conditions. The focus is on 147.49, a Fibonacci projection. A break would open 148.40, the Nov 4 2022 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode condition, reflecting current positive market sentiment. The first key support to watch lies at 145.06, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Reverses Off Cycle High

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 159.76 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 157.87 @ 06:43 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 157.57/156.87 Intraday low / Aug 23
• SUP 2: 156.48 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 155.11 Low Jul 31
• SUP 4: 154.50 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 22 rally

Prices faltered Thursday, with the cross retreating off the new cycle high. The trend outlook is bullish and the move lower is considered corrective - for now. The pair has pierced the 20-day EMA, a continuation lower would expose 156.87 and 156.48, the Aug 23 low and the 50-day EMA. This week’s fresh cycle high, reinforces bullish trend conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. A break of the 50-day EMA would undermine the uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.6723 High Aug 1
• RES 3: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 1: 0.6571 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 0.6456 @ 07:53 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 0.6365 Low Aug 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6285 Low Nov 4 2022
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and recent gains appear to be a correction. Resistance at the 20-day EMA of 0.6489 has been pierced, but markets look to cement a break before any reversal higher can be confirmed. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6571 - a key resistance. A resumption of the downtrend and a break of 0.6365, the Aug 17 low, would resume the downtrend and open 0.6285 next, the Nov 4 2022 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3727 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
• RES 2: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3640 High Aug 25
• PRICE: 1.3514 @ 07:59 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 1.3491 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3413 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3352 Low Aug 7
• SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2

USDCAD has traded lower this week. This is likely a correction and the trend remains bullish. Recent gains reinforce the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 1.3655, May 26 high. A trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high, is at 1.3726 and represents an objective further out. Support is at 1.3491, the 20-day EMA. It has been tested, a clear would signal scope for a deeper correction.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 134.88 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 134.01 High Jul 24
• RES 2: 133.92 High Jul 27
• RES 1: 133.45 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 133.03 @ 05:34 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 131.70/20 Low Aug 28 / 23
• SUP 2: 130.14 Low Aug 15
• SUP 3: 130.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 129.69 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

A strong rally in Bund futures on Aug 23 resulted in a break of resistance at the 20- and 50-day EMA values. That move higher continues to threaten the recent bearish theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery. Yesterday’s gains reinforce this theme. This has exposed 133.45, the Aug 8 high and the next key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 131.20, the Aug 23 low. A break of this level would instead be seen as a bearish development.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 3: 116.600 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 116.340 High Aug 8
• RES 1: 116.260 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 116.080 @ 05:45 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 115.360/210 Low Aug 28 / 23
• SUP 2: 114.960 Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: 114.710 Low Aug 15
• SUP 4: 114.550 Low Jul 6 and a key support

Bobl futures traded higher yesterday but have remained below last week’s highs - for now. Recent gains have resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMA values. This highlights a stronger correction and signals scope for 116.340, the Aug 8 high. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend and suggest gains are a correction. Support to watch lies at 115.210, the Aug 23 low. A break would reinstate a bearish threat.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Key Directional Parameters Defined

• RES 4: 105.325 High Jun 14
• RES 3: 105.295 High Aug 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 105.255 High Aug 9
• RES 1: 105.230 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 105.120 @ 07:10 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 104.825/760 Low Aug 30 / 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 104.741 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - Aug 8 bull leg
• SUP 3: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures remain below their recent highs. Recent activity has highlighted key directional parameters at 104.760, the Aug 15 low and 105.230, the Aug 24 high. A breach of support would reinstate a bearish theme and expose 104.741 initially, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, clearance of 105.230 would leave the key resistance at 105.295, the Aug 8 high, exposed. A break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 97.27 76.4% retrace of the Jul 19 - Aug 17 bear leg (cont)
• RES 3: 96.19 High Jul 31(cont)
• RES 2: 95.82 High Aug 10 (cont)
• RES 1: 95.68 High Aug 31
• PRICE: 95.57 @ Close Aug 31
• SUP 1: 94.14 Low Aug 29
• SUP 2: 93.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 92.56 Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: 91.47 Low Aug 17 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures traded higher Thursday and cleared resistance at 95.11, the Aug 24 high. This strengthens the current bull cycle and signals scope for a stronger corrective phase. The break opens 95.82, the Aug 10 high (cont). On the downside, initial support lies at 94.14, the Aug 29 low. A break would signal a possible reversal. The key support and bear trigger lies at 91.47, the Aug 17 low.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z3) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 112-14 High Aug 10 and a key hort-term resistance
• RES 3: 112-00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 111-13+ High Aug 11
• RES 1: 111-03+ High Aug 30
• PRICE: 111-03 @ 17:34 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 109-18+/09+ Low Aug 25 / 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 108-20 1.000 proj of the Jul 18 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 107.23 1.236 proj of the Jul 18 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing
• SUP 4: 107-05+ 1.382 proj of the Jul 18 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing

The current bull cycle in Treasuries remains down despite this week’s gains. Resistance at the 20-day EMA has been breached. An extension higher would open 111-13+, the Aug 11 high. The next key resistance is at 112-14, the Aug 10 high. For bears, the recent break of 110-09, the Aug 4 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on 108.20, a Fibonacci projection. The bear trigger is 109-09+, the Aug 22 low.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.48/60 High Jul 19 / Jun 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 116.86 High Jul 24
• RES 1: 116.12 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 115.92 @ Close Aug 31
• SUP 1: 114.11/112.95 Low Aug 23 / Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support
• SUP 4: 111.05 1.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - Jul 19 price swing

Recent gains in BTP futures have resulted in a move above the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this highlights a stronger short-term bull cycle. Resistance at 116.02, the Aug 9 high, has been pierced - a clear break of this level would signal scope for an extension higher. The Aug 23 low of 114.11 marks the first key short-term support. A reversal and break of this level would be a bearish development and expose 112.95, the Jul 11 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4420.00 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 4358.00/4388.50 Aug 30 high / 61.8% Jul 31-Aug 18 downleg
• PRICE: 4318.00 @ 06:40 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 4293.00 Low Aug 31
• SUP 2: 4225.00/4187.00 Low Aug 24 / 18 and key support
• SUP 3: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4122.00 Low Mar 28

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain closer to recent highs despite the latest pullback. The contract has traded above resistance at the 50-day EMA at 4329.9. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 4420.00. The bull trigger is 4358.00, the Aug 30 high. On the downside, a breach of 4187.00, the Aug 18 low, would be a bearish development and confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Testing Resistance At The Former Channel Base

• RES 4: 4634.50 High Jul 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4593.50 High Aug 2
• RES 2: 4560.75 High Aug 4
• RES 1: 4541.25 High Aug 31
• PRICE: 4520.50 @ 06:51 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 4452.93/4350.00 50-day EMA / Low Aug 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4344.28 38.2% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4305.75 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 4254.62 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle

The E-mini S&P contract maintains a firmer short-term tone. Price has traded above resistance at 4526.29, the base of a bull channel, drawn from the Mar 13 low that was breached on Aug 16. A clear break of this level would strengthen the upleg and open 4560.75, the Aug 4 high. Initial support to watch lies at 4455.40, the 50-day EMA. A return below the average would be a bearish development.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X3) Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: $94.79 - High Nov 16
• RES 3: $92.91 - High Nov 17 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $87.37 - High Aug 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $87.11 @ 07:07 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: $84.16 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $82.00 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $78.10 - Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 4: $74.78 - Low Jul 6

Brent futures traded higher yesterday and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. Resistance at $85.86, the Aug 21 high, has been cleared and price is approaching key resistance at $87.37, the Aug 10 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open the $80.00 handle. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $84.16, the 20-day EMA. A break would expose the $50-day EMA at $82.00.

WTI TECHS: (V3) Rally Exposes Key Resistance

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $86.62 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 2: $85.24 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 1: $84.16 - High Aug 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $83.90 @ 07:13 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: $80.43/78.18 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: $73.60 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: $6972 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $66.83 - Low Jun 12 and key support

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and yesterday’s gains reinforce this theme. Price is approaching key resistance at $84.16, the Aug 10 high. A clear break would be bullish and confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This would open $85.24, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch is $80.43, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal a short-term top and expose the 50-day EMA at $78.18.

GOLD TECHS: Correction Remains In Play

• RES 4: $1999.6 - Low May 5
• RES 3: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1963.3 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg
• RES 1: $1949.1 - High Aug 30
• PRICE: $1938.8 @ 07:26 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: $1922.6 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1903.9/1884.9 - Low Aug 25 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg

A short-term correction in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA - at $1931.5. This strengthens the current bull cycle and signals scope for a stronger recovery. Attention turns to $1948.3, 61.8% of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg. It has been pierced, a clear break would open $1963.3, the 76.4% retracement. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $1903.9, the Aug 25 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $26.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.149 - High Jul 27
• RES 1: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• PRICE: $24.494 @ 08:01 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: $23.921/413 - Low Aug 25 / 23
• SUP 2: $22.667 - Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: $22.227 - Low Aug 15 and key support
• SUP 4: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger

Recent gains in Silver highlights a stronger short-term bull cycle and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The metal has cleared $24.550 - the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 14 downleg. This strengthens bullish conditions and a continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $25.267, the Jul 20 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support to watch is $23.413, the Aug 23 low. A break would signal a potential reversal.