MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - OPEC+ Moves Reinforce Bearish WTI Setup

Price Signal Summary – OPEC+ Moves Reinforce Bearish WTI Setup

• A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the current consolidation is seen as a pause in the uptrend. A strong rally on Nov 14 resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high. This breach and the subsequent rally, reinforces bullish conditions and opens 4597.50, the Sep 1 high. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. The contract traded higher Thursday and breached 4387.00, the Nov 24 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and Thursday’s pullback is considered corrective. This week’s gains maintain the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. USDJPY has this week breached 147.15, Nov 21 low. The move lower cancels a recent bullish pattern and highlights a resumption of the bear cycle that started Nov 13. Attention is on a key support at 146.76, a trendline drawn from the Mar 24 low. The uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact for now and the latest pullback is considered corrective. This week’s rally has reinforced the bullish significance of the recent break of resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and this week’s strong rally reinforces this set-up. The yellow metal has traded through resistance at $2009.4, the Nov 7 high. The clear break of this hurdle has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The trend outlook in WTI futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this set-up. Resistance to watch is at $79.65, the Nov 14 high. A breach of this hurdle would strengthen any developing bullish threat.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone following this week’s gains. The contract has traded above 131.74, the Nov 17 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. The break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Gilt futures sold off sharply Thursday. For now, a bull cycle remains in play and key short-term support has been defined at 95.25, the Nov 24 low. The recovery from this level is a positive development and has opened 98.05, the Nov 17 high and a bull trigger.

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 2: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1017 High Nov 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0909 @ 05:49 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 1.0852/0766 Low Nov 22 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0756 High Nov 5 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 1.0656 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

The trend outlook in EURUSD remains bullish and the pullback from Wednesday’s high is likely a correction. Note that the trend condition is overbought and a move lower is allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial support to watch is 1.0852, the Nov 22 low. This week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at 1.0965, the Nov 21 high to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The next objective is 1.1065, the Aug 10 high and a key resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2829 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2800 High Aug 22
• RES 1: 1.2733 High Nov 29
• PRICE: 1.2644 @ 05:57 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 1.2591/2483 Low Nov 27 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2404 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2266 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support

The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and Thursday’s pullback is considered corrective. This week’s gains maintain the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. The focus is on 1.2800, the Aug 22 high and 1.2829, a vol band resistance. On the downside, initial firm support to watch at 1.2483, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 3: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8725/68 High Nov 22 / 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8689 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8627 @ 06:17 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 0.8614 Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 0.8598 61.8% retracement of the Aug 23 - Nov 20 bull run
• SUP 3: 0.8569 Low Sep 15
• SUP 4: 0.8558 61.8% retracement of the Aug 23 - Nov 20 bull run

EURGBP maintains a softer tone and the cross is trading closer to this week’s lows. Price has breached 0.8650, the Nov 6 low and key support. The cross has also traded through 0.8630, the 50.0% retracement of the Aug 23 - Nov 20 bull run. This exposes 0.8598, the 61.8% retracement for the Aug - Nov bull run. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8689, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this EMA would ease bearish pressure.

USDJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 150.78/51.95 High Nov 17 / High Oct 21 ‘22 - major resistance
• RES 2: 149.75 High Nov 22 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 148.98 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 148.21 @ 06:45 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 146.67 Trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low
• SUP 2: 145.91 Low Sep 11
• SUP 3: 144.45 Low Sep 1
• SUP 4: 142.85 61.8% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run

USDJPY has this week breached 147.15, Nov 21 low. The move lower cancels a recent bullish pattern and highlights a resumption of the bear cycle that started Nov 13. Attention is on a key support at 146.76, a trendline drawn from the Mar 24 low. A clear break of this line would strengthen the bearish threat and open 145.91, the Sep 11 low. Key short-term resistance is 149.75, the Nov 22 high. A breach of this hurdle would highlight a bull reversal.

EURJPY TECHS: Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 165.99 1.382 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 3: 164.77 1.236 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 2: 164.30 High Nov 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 162.25/163.72 High Nov 29 / 27
• PRICE: 161.65 @ 06:58 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 160.60 Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 160.38 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 159.07 Low Nov 1 / 2
• SUP 4: 157.70 Low Oct 30

The primary uptrend in EURJPY remains intact, however, a corrective cycle has resulted in a move lower this week. Price has breached support at 161.25, the Nov 21 low, signalling scope for a deeper retracement. An extension would open the 50-day EMA, at 160.38. On the upside, a clearance of 164.30, the Nov 16 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 164.77, a Fibonacci projection.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 0.6747 76.4% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6723 High Aug 1
• RES 2: 0.6711 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.6676 High Nov 29
• PRICE: 0.6605 @ 07:39 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 0.6525 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6472 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.6315 Low Oct 31

The uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact for now and the latest pullback is considered corrective. This week’s rally has reinforced the bullish significance of the recent break of resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. Price has also traded through 0.6656, 61.8% of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg. This signals scope for an extension towards 0.6711, the 2.0% 10-dma envelope. On the downside, firm support is seen at 0.6525, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 1.3924 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3855/3899 High Nov 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3777 High Nov 16
• RES 1: 1.3675 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3545 @ 07:53 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 1.3535 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3496 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 1.3401 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase

USDCAD maintains a softer tone and has traded lower today, reinforcing a bearish theme. The recent break of trendline support, drawn from the Jul 14 low, strengthens the current downtrend and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 1.3496 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial key resistance remains at 1.3777, the Nov 16 high. A breach of this hurdle would be a bullish development.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 134.29 High Jul 19
• RES 3: 134.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 133.45 High Jul 24
• RES 1: 132.97 1.618 proj of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing
• PRICE: 132.31 @ 05:27 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 131.74/130.89 High Nov 17 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 130.11 Low Nov 24 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 129.60 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 129.35 Low Nov 7 / 13 and key short-term support

Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone following this week’s gains. The contract has traded above 131.74, the Nov 17 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. The break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and sights are on 132.78, the Sep 1 high which has also been pierced. A clear break would open 133.45, the Jul 24 high. Key support has been defined at 130.11, the Nov 24 low.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Bull Theme Remains In Play

• RES 4: 118.752 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 118.370 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 118.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 117.920 High Nov 30
• PRICE: 117.560 @ 05:35 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 117.230 High Nov 17
• SUP 2: 116.775 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 116.260 Low Nov 27 and key support
• SUP 4: 116.000 Low Nov 13

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and this week’s strong rally has reinforced this theme. The contract has cleared resistance at 117.230, the Nov 17 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Sep 28. The break higher paves the way for a move towards the 118.00 handle. On the downside, key support has been defined at 116.260, the Nov 27 low. A break would highlight a reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 105.6541.382 proj of the Oct 19 - Nov 2 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 105.580 High Aug 24 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 105.560 High Sep 1
• RES 1: 105.505 High Nov 30
• PRICE: 105.395@ 05:52 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 105.250/105.120 Low Nov 29 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 104.915 Low Nov 27 and a key support
• SUP 3: 104.880/765 Low Oct 20 / Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing

Schatz futures reversed course Monday and the cross has rallied higher this week. The climb has resulted in a break of resistance at 105.335, the Nov 2 high and a bull trigger. The breach strengthens a bullish theme and confirms a resumption of the upward cycle that started Sep 21. This signals scope for a climb towards 105.560, the Sep 1 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 105.120, the 50-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Key Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 99.12 138.2% retracement of the Nov 17 - 24 bear leg
• RES 3: 98.71 123.6% retracement of the Nov 17 - 24 bear leg
• RES 2: 98.05 High Nov 17 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 97.93 High Nov 22 / 29
• PRICE: 96.68 @ Close Nov 30
• SUP 1: 96.10 Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 95.25 Low Nov 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 95.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 94.74 2.618 proj of the Nov 17 - 20 - 22 price swing

Gilt futures sold off sharply Thursday. For now, a bull cycle remains in play and key short-term support has been defined at 95.25, the Nov 24 low. The recovery from this level is a positive development and has opened 98.05, the Nov 17 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, a break of 95.25 would instead strengthen a bearish threat and expose 94.74, the 2.618 projection of the Nov 17 - 20 - 22 price swing.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Bullish Trend Sequence

• RES 4: 117.60 High Jun 26 (cont)and a key resistance
• RES 3: 117.48 High Jul 19 (cont)
• RES 2: 116.76 High Jul 27 (cont)
• RES 1: 116.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 114.97 @ Close Nov 30
• SUP 1: 113.28/112.41 Low Nov 24 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 110.81 Low Nov 2
• SUP 3: 109.64 Low Nov 1
• SUP 4: 108.01/107.42 Low Oct 26 / 19

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play and this week’s rally has reinforced the bullish condition. Wednesday’s break of resistance at 114.89, the Nov 17 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 19. Potential is for a climb towards 116.00 next. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards 116.76, the Jul 27 high (cont). On the downside, key short-term trend support has been defined at 113.28, the Nov 24 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Bull Cycle Extension

• RES 4: 4533.00 High Jul 31
• RES 3: 4500.00 High 1
• RES 2: 4446.00 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 4419.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4409.00 @ 06:25 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 4307.30 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4257.00 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4185.00 Low Nov 9 and 10
• SUP 4: 4143.00 Low Nov 8

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. The contract traded higher Thursday and breached 4387.00, the Nov 24 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a rising cycle. The focus is on 4446.00, the Aug 10 high. Initial firm support to watch is at 4307.30, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Consolidation Marks A Pause In The Uptrend

• RES 4: 4700.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4685.25 High Jul 27 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 4644.75 High Aug 2
• RES 1: 4597.50 High Sep and a key resistance
• PRICE: 4573.75 @ 07:13 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 4501.75/4490.76 Low Nov 16 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4436.17 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4354.25 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 4257.75 Low Nov 3

A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the current consolidation is seen as a pause in the uptrend. A strong rally on Nov 14 resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high. This breach and the subsequent rally, reinforces bullish conditions and opens 4597.50, the Sep 1 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support is seen at 4490.76, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G4) Remains Below Resistance

• RES 4: $91.04 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $88.55 - High Oct 27
• RES 2: $87.12 - High Nov 3
• RES 1: $84.61 - High Nov 30 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $80.57 @ 06:57 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: $76.71 - Low Nov 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $75.07 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 15 bull run
• SUP 3: $73.50 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $71.45 - Low Jun 23

Brent futures have traded higher this week and have so far peaked at $84.61, Thursday’s high. This level has been defined as a key short-term resistance where a break is required to suggest potential for a stronger rally. Note that a break would also confirm a clear breach of $83.62, the Nov 14 high. On the downside, a deeper pullback would expose the bear trigger at $76.71, the Nov 16 low.

WTI TECHS: (F4) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $88.37 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $85.00 - High Oct 27
• RES 2: $83.20 - High Nov 3
• RES 1: $79.65 - High Nov 14 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $75.92 @ 07:09 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: $72.37 - Low Nov 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $70.96 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $69.09 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $67.28 - Jun 23

The trend outlook in WTI futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this set-up. Resistance to watch is at $79.65, the Nov 14 high. A breach of this hurdle would strengthen any developing bullish threat and open $83.20, the Nov 3 high. On the downside, the bear trigger lies at $72.37, the Nov 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $2100.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 2022 and the all-time high
• RES 2: $2063.0 - High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $2052.0 - High Nov 29
• PRICE: $2040.7 @ 07:15 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: $2009.4 - High Oct 27 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: $1994.0/1964.5 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and this week’s strong rally reinforces this set-up. The yellow metal has traded through resistance at $2009.4, the Nov 7 high. The clear break of this hurdle has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for an extension towards 2063.0, the May 4 high and a key resistance. Note the all-time high at $2070.4 (Mar 8 ‘22). Initial firm support is at $1994.0, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bull Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $26.397 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $25.473 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $25.228 @ 07:57 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: $23.863/23.355 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the metal has traded higher this week. The break higher maintains the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies have crossed and are currently in a bull-mode position. This reinforces current bullish conditions. The focus is on $26.135, the May 5 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support lies at $23.355, the 50-day EMA.