MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S/T AUD/USD Outlook Remains Bullish

Price Signal Summary – S/T AUD/USD Outlook Remains Bullish

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s fresh highs reinforce current conditions. Note that price action continues to highlight the fact that corrections are shallow. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle high reinforces this theme. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position - this continues to highlight positive market sentiment.
• GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and price is trading closer to last week’s highs. Last Friday’s climb resulted in a break of the bull trigger at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high. This represents an important technical break and confirms a resumption of the bull trend. USDJPY remains vulnerable following last week’s impulsive sell-off. The breach of support around the 50-day EMA strengthens the current bearish cycle. The pair has pierced 146.83, 38.2% of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bull cycle. AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. And the short-term outlook remains bullish. The recovery across last week resulted in the break of resistance at 0.6595, the Feb 22 high, strengthening a bullish theme and this signals scope for a continuation higher.
• Gold remains firm on the back of its latest rally and price is trading just below its recent highs. The yellow metal last week traded above $2135.4, the Dec 4 high, to deliver a fresh all-time cycle high. The break reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for $2206.6. The WTI futures trend condition remains bullish despite the latest pullback - a correction. The recent breach of key resistance at $79.09, the Jan 29 high, reinforces a bullish theme. The clear break highlights potential for a continuation towards $81.70.
• Bund futures are trading closer to their recent highs and remain above the 50-day EMA - at 133.29. The clear break of the EMA signals scope for an extension and opens 134.18 next the Feb 15 high. Note that the break higher has also resulted in a bear channel breakout. Gilt futures remain in a bull-mode set-up. The contract traded higher last week, extending the recovery from the Feb 29 low. Resistance at 98.53, Feb 26 high, has recently been cleared. The break eases recent bearish pressure and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term.

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.1084 High Dec 29
• RES 3: 1.1034 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 14 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• RES 1: 1.0981 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 1.0937 @ 05:30 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: 1.0850 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0796 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 1.0762/0695 Low Feb 20 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0656 Low Nov 10

A bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact following last week’s gains. Price has breached 1.0969, the 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 14 bear leg. This strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 1.0998 next, the Jan 5 high. The 76.4% retracement is at 1.1034. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is 1.0850, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average is required to signal a top.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19 2023
• RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27 2023
• RES 2: 1.2946 2.00 projection of the Feb 14 - 22 - Mar 1 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2894 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 1.2818 @ 05:45 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: 1.2733 High Nov 29 2023
• SUP 2: 1.2706/1.2667 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 1.2600 Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and price is trading closer to last week’s highs. Last Friday’s climb resulted in a break of the bull trigger at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high. This represents an important technical break and confirms a resumption of the bull trend that started on Oct 4 last year. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too. Sights are on 1.2996 next, the Jul 27 2023 high. Initial firm support is seen at 1.2706, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8593 High Jan 19
• RES 1: 0.8546/78 20-day EMA / High Feb 20 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.8533 @ 06:13 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: 0.8504 Low Mar 08
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

The broader trend direction in EURGBP is down and moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set up. Attention is on the bear trigger at 0.8493, the Aug 23 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the trend and signal scope for 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, key resistance is unchanged at 0.8578, the Feb 20 high. A move above this hurdle is required to highlight a reversal instead.

USDJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
• RES 3: 151.43 High Nov 16
• RES 2: 150.89 High Feb 13 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 148.40/149.13 50- and 20-day EMA values
• PRICE: 147.45 @ 06:34 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: 146.49 Low Mar 08 / 11
• SUP 2: 145.90 Low Feb 1 and key support
• SUP 3: 145.57 50.0% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 144.88 Low Jan 15

USDJPY remains vulnerable following last week’s impulsive sell-off. The breach of support around the 50-day EMA strengthens the current bearish cycle. The pair has pierced 146.83, 38.2% of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bull cycle. The move lower has exposed 145.90, the Feb 1 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would be seen as an important bearish break. Initial resistance to watch is 148.40, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Tests Trendline Support

• RES 4: 165.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 164.30 High Nov 16 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 163.72 High Feb 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 161.93/162.96 20-day EMA / High Mar 6
• PRICE: 161.19 @ 06:48 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: 160.52/22 Trendline drawn from Dec 7 low / Low Mar 11
• SUP 2: 159.47 Low Feb 8
• SUP 3: 158.92 Low Feb 7
• SUP 4: 158.08 Low Feb 1 and a key support

A corrective cycle in EURJPY remains in play and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and is trading at its recent lows. Attention is on 160.52, trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 low. It has been pierced but remains intact for now. A break of it would strengthen the bearish theme and open 158.92, the Feb 7 low. Initial resistance to watch is 162.08.

AUDUSD TECHS: Firmer Short-Term Tone Intact

• RES 4: 0.6748 High Jan 5
• RES 3: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 2: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.6668 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 0.6617 @ 07:29 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: 0.6568 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6478/6443 Low Mar 5 / Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14

AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. And the short-term outlook remains bullish. The recovery across last week resulted in the break of resistance at 0.6595, the Feb 22 high, strengthening a bullish theme and this signals scope for a continuation higher. Potential is seen for a climb towards 0.6708, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial key support is at 0.6478, the Mar 5 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present For Now

• RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3510/3606 20-day EMA / High Feb 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3472 @ 07:54 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: 1.3420 Low Mar 8
• SUP 2: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5

USDCAD traded lower last week and short-term conditions remain bearish - for now.. Key support lies at 1.3359, the Jan 31 low and a break of this level would be seen as a bearish development. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3441, the Feb 22 low. It has been pierced and a clear break would expose 1.3359. On the upside, the bull trigger is at 1.3606, the Feb 28 high, where a breach is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 135.44 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 134.78 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 bear cycle
• RES 2: 134.48 High Feb 5
• RES 1: 134.18 High Feb 7
• PRICE: 133.43 @ 05:10 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: 132.36 Low Mar 5
• SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 131.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 129.88 Bear channel base drawn from the Dec 27 high

Bund futures are trading closer to their recent highs and remain above the 50-day EMA - at 133.29. The clear break of the EMA signals scope for an extension and opens 134.18 next the Feb 15 high. Note that the break higher has also resulted in a bear channel breakout - drawn from the Dec 27 high. Clearance of 134.18 would open 134.78, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the bear trigger lies at 131.23 the Feb 29 low.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 119.220 High May 5
• RES 3: 119.050 High Feb 8
• RES 2: 119.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8
• PRICE: 118.370 @ 05:21 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: 117.960/680 Low Mar 7 / 4
• SUP 2: 117.440 Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: 117.200 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 117.000 Round number support

A broader bearish cycle in Bobl futures is intact, however, a correction remains in play and this signals scope for an extension higher near-term. The contract has breached resistance at 118.270, the Feb 26 high. Sights are on 118.790, the Feb 15 high. A break would open the 119.000 handle. On the downside, key support has been defined at 117.200, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Bullish Short-Term Outlook

• RES 4: 106.315 High Feb 8
• RES 3: 106.145 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 1: 106.010 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 105.860 @ 05:36 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: 105.705 Low Mar 7
• SUP 2: 105.640 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 105.575 Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: 105.490 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger

The downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact, however, for now a corrective cycle remains in play and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 105.850, the Feb 26 high, has been cleared signalling scope for a climb towards 106.145, the Feb 15 high. For bears, recent fresh cycle lows reinforce bearish conditions and maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The bear trigger lies at 105.490, the Feb 29 low.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Short-Term Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 100.73 1.764 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 3: 100.31 1.50 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 100.12 1.382 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 1: 100.03 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 99.61 @ Close Mar 11
• SUP 1: 98.33/97.91 Low Mar 5 / 4
• SUP 2: 97.42 Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: 96.83 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 96.00 Round number support

Gilt futures remain in a bull-mode set-up. The contract traded higher last week, extending the recovery from the Feb 29 low. Resistance at 98.53, Feb 26 high, has recently been cleared. The break eases recent bearish pressure and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. 99.00 has also been cleared and sights are on 100.12 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support and bear trigger is at 96.83, Feb 29 low. Initial support is 98.33, Mar 5 low.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Bull Cycle Intact

• RES 4: 121.65 2.618 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 2: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.05 High Mar 7
• PRICE: 119.35 @ Close Mar 12
• SUP 1: 118.08 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 116.52 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support

BTP futures traded higher last week resulting in a break of key short-term resistance at 118.81, the Jan 30 high. The clear break of this hurdle highlights a bullish reversal and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. This has opened 120.65, the Dec 27 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 118.08, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 5035.50 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 27 low
• RES 3: 5030.60 2.764 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 5000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 4996.00 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 4962.00 @ 06:01 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: 4861.00 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4757.00 Low Feb 19
• SUP 3: 4729.10 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4662.90 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 27 low

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle high reinforces this theme. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position - this continues to highlight positive market sentiment. Sights are on the psychological 5000.00 handle next. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards a bull channel top at 5035.50. The channel is drawn from the Oct 27 low. Initial firm support lies at 4861.00, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 5303.38 3.0% Bollinger Band
• RES 3: 5300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5282.68 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 5257.25 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 5203.75 @ 06:58 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: 5137.36 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5022.53 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4994.25 Low Feb 13
• SUP 4: 4921.00 Low Jan 31

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s fresh highs reinforce current conditions. Note that price action continues to highlight the fact that corrections are shallow. This is a bullish signal highlighting positive market sentiment. Support to watch is 5137.36 the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would open 5022.53, the 50-day EMA. Sights are on 5300.00 next.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K4) Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $88.31 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $86.52 - High Oct 27
• RES 2: $85.47 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 15 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $84.34 - High Mar 1
• PRICE: $82.58 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: $80.94/76.41 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: $74.84 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 3: $73.22 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.80 - Low Jun 23 ‘23

The latest pullback in Brent futures is considered corrective. A bullish structure remains intact and attention is on the $83.65 key resistance, the Jan 29 high. It has recently been pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would signal a resumption of the bull cycle that has been in place since Dec 13. This would open $85.47, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial pivot support to watch lies at $80.94, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (J4) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $85.75 - High Sep 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $84.66 - High Oct 20
• RES 2: $81.70 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $80.85 - High Mar 1
• PRICE: $78.23 @ 07:04 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: $76.57/71.49 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: $69.79 - Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: $68.57 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $65.41 - Low Jun 12

The WTI futures trend condition remains bullish despite the latest pullback - a correction. The recent breach of key resistance at $79.09, the Jan 29 high, reinforces a bullish theme. The clear break highlights potential for a continuation towards $81.70, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch is $76.57, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would instead signal a possible top.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $2253.6 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2230.1 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2206.6 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2195.2 - High Mar 8
• PRICE: $2175.6 @ 07:20 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: $2123.8 - Low Mar 6
• SUP 2: $2088.50 - High Dec 28 and 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2053.1 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1984.3 Low Feb 14

Gold remains firm on the back of its latest rally and price is trading just below its recent highs. The yellow metal last week traded above $2135.4, the Dec 4 high, to deliver a fresh all-time cycle high. The break reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for $2206.6 next, a Fibonacci projection. S/T conditions are overbought, however, this does not appear to be a concern for bulls - for now. Firm support is at $2088.5, the Dec 28 high and 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Remains Firm

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.856 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - Jan 22 bear leg
• RES 1: $24.633 - High Mar 8
• PRICE: $24.426 @ 08:01 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: $23.189/21.883 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 2: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 2023

Silver rallied higher last week and the metal remains firm. Price has cleared resistance at $23.534, the Jan 12 high. This cancels a recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger rally above $24.00. Resistance at $24.606, the Dec 22 high, has been pierced. A clear break would open $24.856, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch lies at $23.189, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would signal a reversal.