MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S/T Equity Gains Considered Corrective For Now

Price Signal Summary – S/T Equity Gains Considered Corrective For Now

• S&P E-Minis trend signals remain bearish and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Short-term gains are considered corrective with resistance at 3926.25, the 50-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above the December lows. The contract has tested resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 3857.60 and marks a key short-term hurdle. A clear breach of this level would suggest potential for a stronger recovery.
• EURUSD has traded sharply lower and in the process has breached support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.0587. A continuation lower would open 1.0528, the Dec 133 low and expose a key short-term support at 1.0443, the Dec 7 low. EURGBP is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The outlook remains bullish and last month's break of 0.8829, the Nov 9 high, reinforced this theme. This paves the way for a move towards 0.8907, a Fibonacci retracement point. EURJPY has started the new year on a bearish note. Today’s move lower has resulted in a break of support at 138.81, the Dec 20 low and bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and paves the way for a test of key support at 137.40, the Sep 26 low.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal has started the year on a firm note, clearing resistance and resuming its uptrend. The break higher signals scope for gains towards $1857.6 next, the Jun 16 high and $1896.5, the 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg. The short-term trend conditions in WTI futures are bullish. The contract has traded above both the 20- and 50-day EMA points and this suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. The focus is on the next key resistance at $83.27, the Dec 1 high.
• Bund futures recovered Tuesday. Short-term gains are considered corrective and the cross remains in a downtrend - the current bear phase started Dec 7. Recent cycle lows confirm an extension of the trend and maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Gilt futures remain in a bear mode and the contract traded lower last week, extending the current bearish leg. Recent weakness resulted in a clear break of support at 103.54, the Nov 21 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.0851 High Apr 25
• RES 3: 1.0849 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.0787 High May 30 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0735 High Dec 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0574 @ 08:40 GMT Jan 3
• SUP 1: 1.0557 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0528 Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: 1.0443 Low Dec 7 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0411 50-day EMA

EURUSD has traded sharply lower and in the process has breached support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.0587. A continuation lower would open 1.0528, the Dec 133 low and expose a key short-term support at 1.0443, the Dec 7 low. The move lower is considered corrective - for now - and the uptrend remains intact. The bull trigger has been defined at 1.0735, the Dec 15 high, where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2242/2446 High Dec 19 / 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2148 High Dec 22
• PRICE: 1.1942 @ 08:46 GMT Jan 3
• SUP 1: 1.1936 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1901 Low Nov 30 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.1779 Low Nov 21
• SUP 4: 1.1645 38.2% retracement of the Sep - Dec rally

GBPUSD has traded lower today and cleared support to highlight the end of a recent period of consolidation. The short-term outlook remains bearish. This follows the sharp sell-off on Dec 15 and the subsequent follow through reinforced this theme. Attention is on the next key support at 1.1901, the Nov 30 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.2446, the Dec 14 high. Initial resistance is at 1.2148, the Dec 22 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 0.8992 61.8%retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8877 High Dec 30
• PRICE: 0.8835 @ 06:28 GMT Jan 3
• SUP 1: 0.8784/61 Low Dec 23 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8713 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8646 High Dec 8
• SUP 4: 0.8593 Low Dec 15

EURGBP is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The outlook remains bullish and last month's break of 0.8829, the Nov 9 high, reinforced this theme. This paves the way for a move towards 0.8907, a Fibonacci retracement point. Moving average studies have crossed to highlight a bullish backdrop, reinforcing the current trend direction. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8713, the 50-day EMA. A break would be bearish.

USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Trend Lows

• RES 4: 134.50 High Dec 28 and key resistance
• RES 3: 134.41 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 133.10 High Dec 30
• RES 1: 131.40 Intraday high
• PRICE: 129.87 @ 06:37 GMT Jan 3
• SUP 1: 129.51 Low Jun 2
• SUP 2: 128.44 1.236 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 127.53 Low May 31
• SUP 4: 126.36 Low May 24

USDJPY has traded lower today and in the process has breached support and the bear trigger at 130.58. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The pair has also traded through the 130.00 handle. This opens 129.51 next, the Jun 2 low, ahead of 128.44, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 134.50, the Dec 28 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 142.94 High Dec 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 142.26 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 140.02 Intraday high
• PRICE: 138.22 @ 08:49 GMT Jan 3
• SUP 1: 138.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 137.40 Low Sep 26 and a key support
• SUP 3: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 4: 136.09 Low Aug 26

EURJPY has started the new year on a bearish note. Today’s move lower has resulted in a break of support at 138.81, the Dec 20 low and bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and paves the way for a test of key support at 137.40, the Sep 26 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 142.94, the Dec 28 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 2: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 0.6835/6893 Intraday high / High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6743 @ 08:20 GMT Jan 3
• SUP 1: 0.6687/29 50-day EMA / Low Dec 20 and key S/T support.
• SUP 2: 0.6585 Low Nov 21 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 0.6531 50.0% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 climb
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD has pulled back from its high earlier today. A bullish theme remains in place and the move lower is considered corrective. Support at the 50-day EMA - at 0.6687 - remains intact for now. A clear break of this EMA is required to suggest scope for a deeper pullback and 0.6629, the Dec 20 low, is seen as a key short-term bear trigger. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 0.6893, the Dec 13 high and bull trigger.

USDCAD TECHS: Outlook Is Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3855 High Oct 21 - Nov 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 1: 1.3619/3705 Intraday high / 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3593 @ 08:24 GMT Jan 3
• SUP 1: 1.3484 Low Dec 27
• SUP 2: 1.3385 Low Dec 5 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.3317/3226 Low Nov 24/25 / Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD remains below its recent highs. Despite the pullback from the mid-December highs, short-term conditions remain bullish. Last month's break of trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 13 high, strengthened the bullish case and this has opened 1.3751, the Nov 4 high. On the downside, the next key support to watch lies at 1.3385, the Dec 5 low. A break would be bearish and potentially expose 1.3226, the Nov 15 low and a bear trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 140.78 High Dec 15
• RES 3: 137.76 High Dec 19
• RES 2: 136.47 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 135.41/136.32 High Dec 23 / 19
• PRICE: 134.36 @ 05:15 GMT Jan 3
• SUP 1: 132.60 Low Jan 2
• SUP 2: 132.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 131.54 2.50 proj of the Dec 7 - Dec 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 131.08 2.618 proj of the Dec 7 - Dec 13 price swing

Bund futures recovered Tuesday. Short-term gains are considered corrective and the cross remains in a downtrend - the current bear phase started Dec 7. Recent cycle lows confirm an extension of the trend and maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The contract has breached support at 134.50, the Nov 8 low. Sights are on the 132.00 handle next. On the upside, resistance is seen at 135.41, the Dec 23 high.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 117.720 High Dec 16
• RES 3: 116.730 High Dec 23
• RES 2: 117.090/218 High Dec 21 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 116.730 High Dec 23
• PRICE: 116.380 @ 05:28 GMT Jan 1
• SUP 1: 115.640 2.50 proj of the Dec 7 - 12 - 13 price swing
• SUP 2: 115.458 2.618 proj of the Dec 7 - 12 - 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.233 2.764 proj of the Dec 7 - 12 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 152.000 Round number support

Bobl futures have recovered from recent lows. Gains are considered corrective and the outlook remains bearish. This follows the recent sharp sell-off that resulted in a break of support at 118.260, the Dec 13 low. Price traded lower last week and the extension signals scope for 115.458 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 117.090, the Dec 21 high. The 20-day EMA intersects at 117.479. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 106.005 High Dec 16
• RES 3: 105.907 20-Day EMA
• RES 2: 105.830 High Dec 21
• RES 1: 105.720 High Dec 23
• PRICE: 105.565 @ 05:44 GMT Jan 1
• SUP 1: 105.395 Low Dec 27
• SUP 2: 105.345 2.618 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 105.270 2.764 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.150 3.00 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing

Schatz futures remains in a downtrend following the contracts extension lower last month. This resulted in a break on Dec 15, of support at 106.335, the Nov 28 low. The continuation lower reinforces bearish conditions and signals scope for a deeper pullback that has opened 105.345 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, 105.907 is a firm resistance, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Trend Sequence Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 104.35 High Dec 16
• RES 3: 102.03/103.67 20-day EMA / High Dec 19
• RES 2: 101.95 High Dec 20
• RES 1: 100.44 High Dec 29
• PRICE: 99.90 @ Close Dec 30
• SUP 1: 99.18 Low Dec 28
• SUP 2: 98.15 Low Oct 24 (cont)
• SUP 3: 97.33 61.8% retracement of the Oct 12 - Nov 25 bull phase
• SUP 4: 95.82 Low Oct 21 (cont)

Gilt futures remain in a bear mode and the contract traded lower last week, extending the current bearish leg. Recent weakness resulted in a clear break of support at 103.54, the Nov 21 low. This strengthened the downtrend and signals scope for a deeper pullback. The psychological 100.00 handle has been breached. The focus is on 98.15, the Oct 4 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is seen at 102.25, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Bearish Trend Sequence

• RES 4: 116.43 High Dec 15
• RES 3: 113.23/115.01 High Dec 16 / Low Nov 28
• RES 2: 112.08 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 110.47/111.81 High Dec 29 / 22
• PRICE: 109.97 @ Close Jan 2
• SUP 1: 108.36 Low Dec 30 low and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 108.13 Low Sep 28 (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: 107.71 3.50 proj of the Dec 7 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.94 3.764 proj of the Dec 7 - 13 price swing

BTP futures remain soft following the December bearish price action and short-term gains are considered corrective. Attention is on 108.13, the Sep 28 low (cont) and a key support. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, reinforcing the current trend direction. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 112.08, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger is 108.36, the Dec 30 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Testing Resistance At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Oct ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 3: 4049.50 High Feb 23 (cont)
• RES 2: 4043.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 3857.60/3908.00 20-day EMA / Low Dec 9
• PRICE: 3849.00 @ 05:39 GMT Jan 3
• SUP 1: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3646.50 50% retracement of the Sep - Dec bull cycle
• SUP 3: 3580.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3552.90 61.8% retracement of the Sep - Dec bull cycle

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above the December lows. The contract has tested resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 3857.60 and marks a key short-term hurdle. A clear breach of this level would suggest potential for a stronger recovery. Gains are considered corrective - for now. A resumption of weakness and a break of 3753.00, the Dec 20 low, would resume the recent downtrend. The key bull trigger is 4043.00, Dec 13 high.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Bearish Trend Outlook

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Aug 26
• RES 3: 4194.25 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4043.00/4180.00 High Dec 15 / 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 3926.25 50-day EMA and a key resistance
• PRICE: 3869.50 @ 06:59 GMT Jan 3
• SUP 1: 3778.45 61.8% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 2: 3735.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 3670.00 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 4: 3735.00 Low Oct 21

S&P E-Minis trend signals remain bearish and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Short-term gains are considered corrective with resistance at 3926.25, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle is required to suggest potential for a stronger recovery. On the downside, a break lower would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 3778.45, a Fibonacci retracement.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H3) Clears The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $91.39 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 low
• RES 3: $90.49 - High Nov 17
• RES 2: $89.18 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $86.28 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $86.15 @ 07:11 GMT Jan 3
• SUP 1: $81.85 - Low Dec 29 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $78.76/75.64 - Low Dec 16 / Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $73.73 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures maintain a bullish short-term tone and the contract is trading at its recent highs. The current bull cycle has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMA values. This signals scope for a stronger recovery and has opened $89.18, the Dec 1 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at $81.85, the Dec 29 low. A break would signal a potential top.

WTI TECHS: (G3) Holding On To Recent Gains

• RES 4: $86.26 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 11 - Dec 9 low
• RES 3: $84.10 - High Nov 17
• RES 2: $83.27 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $81.18 - High Dec 27
• PRICE: $80.70 @ 07:49 GMT Jan 3
• SUP 1: $76.79 - Low Dec 29 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $73.40/70.31 - Low Dec 16 / 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $68.19 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $65.47 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

The short-term trend conditions in WTI futures are bullish. The contract has traded above both the 20- and 50-day EMA points and this suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. The focus is on the next key resistance at $83.27, the Dec 1 high. Clearance of this level, if seen, would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $76.79, the Dec 29 low where a break would signal a top.

GOLD TECHS: Fresh Trend Highs

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1896.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $1857.6 - High Jun 16
• RES 1: $1850.0 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $1844.1@ 08:12 GMT Jan 3
• SUP 1: $1795.0/74.0 - 20-day EMA / Low Dec 15
• SUP 2: $1763.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1729.0 - Low Nov 23 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $1702.3 - Low Nov 9

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the yellow metal has started the year on a firm note, clearing resistance and resuming its uptrend. The break higher signals scope for gains towards $1857.6 next, the Jun 16 high and $1896.5, the 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting current sentiment. Initial firm support is seen at $1795.00, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.548 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $24.310 @ 08:28 GMT Jan 3
• SUP 1: $22.557 - Low Dec 16 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $22.152 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

The trend outlook in Silver remains bullish and moving average studies are in a bull mode position. Furthermore, fresh trend highs in December and today, highlight a continuation of the bull cycle and this maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at $22.557, the Dec 16 low.