MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Short-Term Bond Gains Deemed Corrective in Nature

Price Signal Summary – Short-Term Bond Gains Deemed Corrective in Nature

• A bear cycle in S&P E-minis remains in play. The contract traded lower yesterday, confirming a resumption of the bear leg once again and maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Eurostoxx 50 futures trend conditions remain bearish and short-term gains appear to be corrective. The contract has traded below 4128.00, the Sep 27 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late July and signals scope for a move towards 4055.40.
• GBPUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforces bearish conditions. The extension lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. USDJPY remains above Tuesday’s low of 147.43. The recovery from this level is bullish and - for now - the uptrend remains intact. A clear break of the 150.00 handle would reinforce bullish conditions - the bull trigger is 150.16, the Oct 3 high. The AUDUSD remains bearish following this week’s breach of support at 0.6331, the Sep 27 low and a bear trigger. The move confirmed a range breakout and a resumption of the downtrend that started early February.
• A bearish theme in Gold remains intact and the metal is trading just above this week’s low. The recent sell-off resulted in a break of support at $1901.1 and this was followed by a breach of $1884.9, the Aug 21 low. WTI futures traded sharply lower yesterday. This week’s bearish price action has resulted in a break of support at $88.19, the Sep 26 low. The contract has also pierced support at the 50-day EMA, at $84.55.
• Bund futures remain in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low yesterday. The break lower confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Gilt futures remain bearish and this week’s move lower reinforces this condition. The recovery from yesterday’s low appears to be a correction. The contract has recently breached 93.36, the Sep 6 low and a key support.

EURUSD TECHS: Gains Are Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.0769 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 1.0740 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0674 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 1.0618 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0523 @ 05:42 BST Oct 5
• SUP 1: 1.0448 Low Oct 03
• SUP 2: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0361 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0291 Low Nov 30 2022

EURUSD remains in a downtrend and traded to a fresh trend low Tuesday, confirming a resumption of the trend. The move lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in bear mode position. Attention is on 1.0406, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0618, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal the start of a correction. Gains are considered corrective.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence Intact

• RES 4: 1.2462 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2351 High Sep 21
• RES 2: 1.2288 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2220 High Oct 2
• PRICE: 1.2157 @ 05:56 BST Oct 5
• SUP 1: 1.2037 Low Oct 04
• SUP 2: 1.2028 Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1964 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

GBPUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforces bearish conditions. The extension lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, reflecting the markets bearish sentiment. The focus is on 1.2028, the Mar 16 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2288, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a possible short-term base.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8736 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 1: 0.8706 High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8655 @ 06:42 BST Oct 5
• SUP 1: 0.8641 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8618/8569 50-day EMA / Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8558 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 06

A bull cycle in EURGBP is in play and support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.8641, remains intact. The cross is also trading closer to its recent highs. Recent gains resulted in a break of 0.8611, the Aug 30 high. Trendline resistance, drawn from the Feb 3 high, has also been breached - the trendline intersects at 0.8663. A clear break of the line would strengthen bullish conditions. Clearance of the 20-day EMA would highlight a top.

USDJPY TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 151.95 High Oct 21 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 151.09 2.764 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 150.40 2.618 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 1: 150.16 High Oct 3
• PRICE: 148.62 @ 07:02 BST Oct 5
• SUP 1: 147.43 Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: 146.36 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 145.91 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 144.45 Low Sep 1

USDJPY remains above Tuesday’s low of 147.43. The recovery from this level is bullish and - for now - the uptrend remains intact. A clear break of the 150.00 handle would reinforce bullish conditions - the bull trigger is 150.16, the Oct 3 high. A break would open 150.40, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, clearance of 147.43 would be a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement.

EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 3: 159.76 High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 158.65 High Sep 13
• RES 1: 157.14 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 156.29 @ 07:14 BST Oct 5
• SUP 1: 154.46 Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: 154.17 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 153.39 76.4% of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 bull run
• SUP 4: 151.42 Late July Low and Bear Trigger

EURJPY traded sharply lower Tuesday and a short-term bear threat remains present. The cross has cleared support at the 50-day EMA and breached 156.59, the Sep 11 low. The break lower highlights a possible short-term reversal. Tuesday’s low of 1254.46 represents a key short-term support where a breach would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA, at 157.14.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 0.6630 High Aug 2
• RES 3: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6402/6501 20-day EMA / High Sep 29
• PRICE: 0.6356 @ 07:26 BST Oct 5
• SUP 1: 0.6287 2.00 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 2: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support

The AUDUSD remains bearish following this week’s breach of support at 0.6331, the Sep 27 low and a bear trigger. The move confirmed a range breakout and a resumption of the downtrend that started early February. This signals scope for 0.6215 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key trend resistance is at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. Initial resistance is at 0.6402, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Trendline Resistance Gives Way

• RES 4: 1.3862 High Mar 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3834 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 1: 1.3780 High Oct 4
• PRICE: 1.3737 @ 07:59 BST Oct 5
• SUP 1: 1.3567 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3506 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support

USDCAD traded higher again Wednesday and remains bullish. The pair has this week breached key resistance at 1.3695, the Sep 7 high. This highlights a bullish theme and reverses the recent bearish phase. The break also confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started mid-July. Trendline resistance - at 1.3700 and drawn from the Oct 13 ‘22 high - has also been cleared and is a bullish development. Support is at 1.3567, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 130.19 High Sep 22 and key resistance
• RES 3: 129.11 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 128.79 High Sep 29
• RES 1: 127.95 High Oct 3
• PRICE: 127.74 @ 05:11 BST Oct 5
• SUP 1: 126.54 1.764 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
• SUP 2: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 125.69 2.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 124.84 2.236 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures remain in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low yesterday. The break lower confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 126.54 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is at 129.11, the 20-day EMA. A break of the average would signal a possible short-term base.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 116.210 High Sep 18
• RES 3: 116.150 High Sep 22 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 115.862 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 115.790 High Sep 29
• PRICE: 115.550 @ 05:16 BST Oct 5
• SUP 1: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 114.817 2.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.691 2.382 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.590 2.50 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing

Bobl futures remain in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent break of 116.00, Aug 15 low and a key support, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and the subsequent extension lower strengthened the case for bears. The focus is on 114.817, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term resistance has been defined at 116.150, the Sep 22 high. The bear trigger is 114.880, the Sep 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 105.256 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - 21 bear leg
• RES 3: 105.170 High Sep 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 105.115 High Sep 15
• RES 1: 105.069 38.2% retracement of the Sep 1 - 21 bear leg
• PRICE: 105.050 @ 05:46 BST Oct 5
• SUP 1: 104.905 Low Oct 4
• SUP 2: 104.830/765 Low Sep 29 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.645 Low Jul 12 (cont)

Schatz futures maintain a bearish tone despite the latest recovery - gains are considered corrective. The recent break of support at 105.130, the Sep 7 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has maintained the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A continuation lower would open 104.720, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance has been defined at 105.170, the Sep 14 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 95.67 High Sep 26
• RES 3: 94.74 High Sep 28
• RES 2: 94.21 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 93.18 High Oct 3
• PRICE: 92.17 @ Close Oct 4
• SUP 1: 91.47 Low Aug 17 and key support
• SUP 2: 91.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 90.06 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 17 - Sep 20 price swing
• SUP 4: 90.00 Psychological round number

Gilt futures remain bearish and this week’s move lower reinforces this condition. The recovery from yesterday’s low appears to be a correction. The contract has recently breached 93.36, the Sep 6 low and a key support. Furthermore, 92.71, 76.4% of Aug 17 - Sep 20 bull run, has been breached. Sights are on 91.47, the Aug 17 low, and the next key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 94.21, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Trades Through A Key Support

• RES 4: 113.84 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 112.52 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 110.86 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 109.98 High Sep 29
• PRICE: 108.38 @ Close Oct 4
• SUP 1: 107.62 Low Oct 4
• SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

BTP futures have traded lower this week and yesterday, price breached support at 108.08, the Sep 28 low. This confirms a clear break of the Sep 28 ‘22 low of 108.13 - a major support. The move lower reinforces bearish conditions and opens 107.08 next, a Fibonacci projection on the continuation chart. On the upside, resistance is at 109.98, the Sep 29 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 4388.00 High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
• RES 3: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 2: 4276.80 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4216.30 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4141.00 @ 06:51 BST Oct 5
• SUP 1: 4082.00 Low Oct 4
• SUP 2: 4055.40 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 4000.00 Psychological round number

Eurostoxx 50 futures trend conditions remain bearish and short-term gains appear to be corrective. The contract has traded below 4128.00, the Sep 27 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late July and signals scope for a move towards 4055.40, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 4216.30, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal a possible short-term base.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Bears Remains In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 4566.00 High Sep 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4514.50 High Sep 18
• RES 2: 4447.76 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4391.25 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4292.75 @ 07:12 BST Oct 5
• SUP 1: 4235.50 Low Oct 4
• SUP 2: 4194.75 Low May 24
• SUP 3: 4166.25 1.50 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 4134.00 Low May 4

A bear cycle in S&P E-minis remains in play. The contract traded lower yesterday, confirming a resumption of the bear leg once again and maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This signals scope for weakness towards 4194.75, the May 24 low. Pivot resistance is 4447.76, the 50-day EMA. Ahead of the 50-day average is resistance at 4391.25, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z3) Sharp Sell-Off

• RES 4: $99.73 - 1.236 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 3: $96.22 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 2: $95.35 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $90.58 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $86.38 @ 05:41 BST Oct 5
• SUP 1: $85.00 - Round number support
• SUP 2: $82.80 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $81.33 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $79.84 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

A sharp sell-off in Brent futures yesterday, has resulted in a break of support around the 50-day EMA - at $87.57. Note too that a short-term trendline support at $88.10, drawn from the Jun 28 low, has also been cleared. This confirms the current bearish cycle and signals scope for a deeper retracement. A continuation would open $85.00 and $82.80, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is at $90.58, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (X3) Impulsive Sell-Off

• RES 4: $99.42 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: $97.08 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: $95.03 - High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $88.28 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $84.68 @ 06:16 BST Oct 5
• SUP 1: $83.22 - 38.2% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 2: $80.00 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $77.32 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $75.92 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

WTI futures traded sharply lower yesterday. This week’s bearish price action has resulted in a break of support at $88.19, the Sep 26 low. The contract has also pierced support at the 50-day EMA, at $84.55. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $83.22, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would expose the $80.00 handle. Initial firm resistance is at $88.28, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: $1953.0 - High Sep 1 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1908.4 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $1884.3 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $1849.0 - High Oct 2
• PRICE: $1824.1 @ 07:19 BST Oct 5
• SUP 1: $1815.3 - Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: $1804.9- Low Feb 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1786.1 - 61.8% of the Sep 28 ‘22 - May 4 bull leg
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15 2022

A bearish theme in Gold remains intact and the metal is trading just above this week’s low. The recent sell-off resulted in a break of support at $1901.1 and this was followed by a breach of $1884.9, the Aug 21 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started early May. The focus is on $1804.9, the Feb 28 low and a key support. On the upside, firm resistance is at $1884.3, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Theme

• RES 4: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 3: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 2: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $22.176/22.547 - High Oct 2 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $21.140 @ 08:01 BST Oct 5
• SUP 1: $20.689 - Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: $20.000 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.585 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - May ‘23 upleg

Silver trend conditions are bearish and this week’s move lower has reinforced this theme. The metal has breached support at $22.111, the Jun 23 low and a bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started early May. Sights are on the $20.00 handle next. On the upside, firm resistance has been defined at $23.774, the Sep 22 high. A break of this level is required to signal a short-term reversal.