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MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis Trend Signal Remains Bullish
- In the equity space, the uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce this set-up. The contract has traded above 5368.25, the May 23 high and bull trigger. The move confirms a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards the 5400.00 handle next. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 5205.50, the May 31 low. Recent weakness in EUROSTOXX 50 futures appears to have been a correction. The recovery from 4947.00, the Jun 4 low, signals the end of the corrective cycle and attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5110.00, the May 16 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support is 4947.00.
- In FX, a bull cycle in EURUSD remains in play and the pair continues to trade closer to its latest highs. Recent gains have resulted in a break of 1.0895, the May 16 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 1.0933, 61.8% of the Dec 28 - Apr 16 bear leg. Support to watch lies at 1.0788, the May 30 low. The GBPUSD trend condition remains bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs and a print above 1.2801, the May 29 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.2859, 1.236 projection of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing. Initial support to watch is 1.2710, the 20-day EMA. The trend outlook in USDJPY is bullish and Wednesday's rally signals the potential end of the recent corrective pullback. The move higher means that for now, the key support zone, between 154.76, the 50-day EMA, and 154.17, a trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low, remains in place. A clear break of this key zone would be bearish and highlight a stronger reversal. For bulls, a move above 157.71, the May 29 high, would resume a short-term uptrend.
- On the commodity front, a short-term bear cycle in Gold remains in play for now. Note that the medium-term trend structure is bullish and the recent move down appears to be a correction that is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Key resistance and the bull trigger is $2450.1,the May 20 high. The 50-day EMA, at $2314.4, represents a key support. In the oil space, despite the latest recovery in WTI futures, a bearish theme remains in play. Price has recently cleared $73.24, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull leg. This reinforces the current bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation. Sights are on $71.33 next, the Feb 5 low. Initial resistance is at $76.15, the May 24 low and a recent breakout level.
- In the FI space, the latest recovery in Bund futures from 129.37, the May 31 low, appears to be a correction - for now. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and the next resistance to watch is 131.73, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a reversal lower would expose 129.37, the May 31 low, and a break of this level would resume the downtrend and open the 129.00 handle. Gilt futures have traded higher this week and the contract is holding on to its gains. For now, the recent climb is considered corrective. The next resistance to watch is 98.04, 76.4% of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle. A clear break of this handle would strengthen the current bull phase and open 98.89, the May 16 high. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 95.33, the May 29 low.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.0981 High Mar 08 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0964 High Mar 13
- RES 2: 1.0933 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0916 High Jun 04
- PRICE: 1.0894 @ 05:54 BST Jun 7
- SUP 1: 1.0840 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0788 Low May 30 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 1.0766 Low May 13
- SUP 4: 1.0724 Low May 90
A bull cycle in EURUSD remains in play and the pair continues to trade closer to its latest highs. Recent gains have resulted in a break of 1.0895, the May 16 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and highlight an uptrend. Sights are on 1.0933, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at 1.0788, the May 30 low.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Set-Up Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.2859 1.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 1: 1.2817 High June 4
- PRICE: 1.2791 @ 06:06 BST Jun 7
- SUP 1: 1.2710/1.2651 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.2584 Low May 15
- SUP 3: 1.2510 Low May 14
- SUP 4: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support
The GBPUSD trend condition remains bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs and a print above 1.2801, the May 29 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on 1.2859, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 1.2710, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 0.8621 High May 9 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 0.8595 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 0.8547 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8541 High May 31
- PRICE: 0.8517 @ 06:19 BST Jun 7
- SUP 1: 0.8484 Low May 29 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
- SUP 3: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2023
- SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
EURGBP is trading in a range and above its recent lows. The trend condition is bearish with sights on 0.8484, the May 29 low and the bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and confirm a clear break of key supports at the 0.8500 pivot level, and the zone between 0.8498, the Feb 14 low, and 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low, strengthening a bearish theme. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8541, the May 31 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Key Support Zone Is Intact
- RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 158.12 76.4% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off
- RES 2: 157.99 High May 1
- RES 1: 156.49/157.71 High Jun 4 / High May 29 and a key resistance
- PRICE: 155.64 @ 06:43 BST Jun 7
- SUP 1: 154.76/55 50-day EMA / Low Jun 4
- SUP 2: 154.17 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
- SUP 3: 151.86 Low May 3 and a pivot level
- SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5
The trend outlook in USDJPY is bullish and Wednesday's rally signals the potential end of the recent corrective pullback. The move higher means that for now, the key support zone, between 154.76, the 50-day EMA, and 154.17, a trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low, remains in place. A clear break of this key zone would be bearish and highlight a stronger reversal. For bulls, a move above 157.71, the May 29 high, would resume a short-term uptrend.
EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 173.41 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 172.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 171.56 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 170.89 High Jun 3
- PRICE: 169.34 @ 06:54 BST Jun 7
- SUP 1: 168.09 Low Jun 4
- SUP 2: 167.38 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low
- SUP 3: 165.64 Low May 7
- SUP 4: 164.02 Low May 3 and a pivot support
The recent move down in EURJPY appears to be a correction. The medium-term trend structure is bullish and sights are on 171.56, the Apr 29 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Support to watch is at a key trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low, at 167.38. A clear breach of this line would highlight a potential reversal.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
- RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
- RES 1: 0.6714 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6675 @ 07:52 BST Jun 7
- SUP 1: 0.6598 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6558 Low May 8
- SUP 3: 0.6465 Low May 1 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6407 Low Apr 22
A bull cycle that started Apr 19 in AUDUSD remains intact and short-term pullbacks appear to be corrective in nature. A key support to watch is 0.6600, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement to 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low. For bulls, a continuation higher would pave the way for 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. The bull trigger is 0.6714, May 16 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Trading In A Range But Above Support
- RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
- RES 1: 1.3748/85 61.8% of the Apr 16 - Mar 16 bear leg / High Apr 30
- PRICE: 1.3669 @ 07:55 BST Jun 7
- SUP 1: 1.3590 Low May 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
USDCAD is trading within a range. Key support has been defined at 1.3590, May 16 low. A clear break of it would threaten a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would also confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 1.3649, and 1.3610, the May 3 low. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (U4) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 132.83 High May 16 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 132.18 High May 17
- RES 2: 131.73 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 131.58 High Jun 5
- PRICE: 130.89 @ 05:34 BST Jun 7
- SUP 1: 130.50 Low Jun 4
- SUP 2: 129.83 Low Jun 1
- SUP 3: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 129.00 round number support
The latest recovery in Bund futures from 129.37, the May 31 low, appears to be a correction - for now. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and the next resistance to watch is 131.73, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a reversal lower would expose 129.37, the May 31 low, and a break of this level would resume the downtrend and open the 129.00 handle.
BOBL TECHS: (U4) Recent Gains Appear To Have Been A Correction
- RES 4: 116.750 High May 16 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 116.420 High May 17
- RES 3: 116.351 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - 31 bear leg
- RES 1: 116.160 High Jun 4
- PRICE: 115.760 @ 05:38 BST Jun 7
- SUP 1: 115.620 Low Jun 6
- SUP 2: 115.320 Low Jun 3
- SUP 3: 115.060 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 115.000 Round number support
A primary downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and the next resistance to watch is 116.351, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break of this level would signal scope for a stronger extension, towards key resistance at 116.750, the May 16 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key short-term support at 115.060, the May 31 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 105.625 High May 17
- RES 3: 105.572 76.4% retracement of the May 15 - 24 bear leg
- RES 2: 105.484 61.8% retracement of the May 15 - 24 bear leg
- RES 1: 105.460 High Jun 4
- PRICE: 105.330 @ 05:47 BST Jun 7
- SUP 1: 105.285 Low Jun 6
- SUP 2: 105.195 Low Jun 3
- SUP 3: 105.110 Low May 24 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 105.00 Round number support
The trend condition in Schatz futures remains bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting bearish market sentiment. The next resistance to watch is 105.484, a Fibonacci retracement point. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 105.110, the May 24 low. A break would resume the downtrend.
GILT TECHS: (U4) Holding On To Recent Gains
- RES 4: 98.89 High May 16 a key resistance
- RES 3: 98.25 High May 21
- RES 2: 98.04 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle
- RES 1: 97.86 High Jun 4
- PRICE: 97.71 @ Close Jun 6
- SUP 1: 97.08 Low Jun 4
- SUP 2: 96.26 Low Jun 3
- SUP 3: 95.33 Low May 29 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 95.00 Round number support
Gilt futures have traded higher this week and the contract is holding on to its gains. For now, the recent climb is considered corrective. The next resistance to watch is 98.04, a Fibonacci retracement point. A clear break of this handle would strengthen the current bull phase and signal scope for a climb towards 98.89, the May 16 high. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 95.33, the May 29 low.
BTP TECHS: (U4) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 117.89 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - 29 bear leg
- RES 1: 117.62 High Jun 5
- PRICE: 117.01 @ Close Jun 6
- SUP 1: 116.13 Low Jun 3
- SUP 2: 115.67 Low May 29
- SUP 3: 115.54 Low Apr 25 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 114.88 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 27 price swing
BTP futures have pulled back from their recent highs. Following the latest recovery from 115.67, the May 29 low, the contract breached 117.47, 61.8% of the May 16 - 29 bear leg. A resumption of gains would open 117.89, the 76.4% retracement. For now, even though the recent rally has been an impulsive wave, gains appear to be a correction. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 115.54, the Apr 25 low.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 111-09 High Apr 1
- RES 3: 110-27+ 1.00 proj of the Apr 25 - May 16 - 29 price swing
- RES 2: 110-17 High Apr 4
- RES 1: 110-12+ High Jun 5
- PRICE: 110-08+ @ 16:08 BST Jun 6
- SUP 1: 109-14 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 109-07 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 108-27+ Low Jun 3
- SUP 4: 107-31 Low May 29 and a key support
Treasuries maintain a firmer short-term tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. This week’s move higher has reinforced the current bullish theme. The contract has traded through resistance and a bull trigger at 110-09, the May 16 high. The break higher opens 110-17, the Apr 4 high, and 110-27+, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 109-14+, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA, lies at 109-07.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Bull Trend Remains Intact
- RES 4: 5162.00 High Nov 2000
- RES 3: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5110.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 5088.00 High Jun 6
- PRICE: 5073.00 @ 06:10 BST Jun 7
- SUP 1: 4947.00 Low Jun 4
- SUP 2: 4936.00 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4894.90 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4862.00 Low Apr 25
Recent weakness in Eurostoxx 50 futures appears to have been a correction. The recovery from 4947.00, the Jun 4 low, signals the end of the corrective cycle and attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5110.00, the May 16 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, a break of 4947.00 would instead expose 4894.90, a Fibonacci retracement.
E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Northbound
- RES 4: 5462.77 2.236 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: 5417.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 2: 5400.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5372.75 High Jun 6
- PRICE: 5369.25 @ 07:20 BST Jun 7
- SUP 1: 5290.83/5205.50 20-day EMA / Low May 31 and key support
- SUP 2: 5155.75 Low May 6
- SUP 3: 5099.25 Low May 3
- SUP 4: 5036.25 Low May 2
The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce this set-up. The contract has traded above 5368.25, the May 23 high and bull trigger. The move confirms a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards the 5400.00 handle next. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 5205.50, the May 31 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term reversal.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Q4) Gains Appear To Be A Correction
- RES 4: $91.11 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 3: $90.22 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $84.72/87.77 - High May 29 / High Apr 26
- RES 1: $81.47 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: $79.96 @ 07:00 BST Jun 7
- SUP 1: $76.76 - Low Jun 4
- SUP 2: $75.63 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: $73.47 - Low Dec 13 and a key support
- SUP 4: $71.20 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - May 24 - 29 price swing
Brent futures have recovered from their recent lows. For now, gains are considered corrective and a bearish theme remains in play. Recent weakness resulted in the breach of a number of important short-term supports. Price is through $80.44, the May 24 low, and $77.42, 76.4% of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle. The break lower signals potential for an extension to $75.63, the Feb 5 low. Initial firm resistance is $84.72, the May 29 high.
WTI TECHS: (N4) Outlook Remains Bearish Despite Recent Gains
- RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $86.93 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 2: $83.63/86.16 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $76.15/80.62 - Low May 24 / High May 1
- PRICE: $75.65 @ 07:12 BST Jun 7
- SUP 1: $72.48 - Low Jun 4
- SUP 2: $71.33 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: $66.79 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - May 24 - 29 price swing
Despite the latest recovery in WTI futures, a bearish theme remains in play. Price has recently cleared $73.24, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull leg. This reinforces the current bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a downtrend. Sights are on $71.33 next, the Feb 5 low. Initial resistance is at $76.15, the May 24 low and a recent breakout level.
GOLD TECHS: Key Support Lies At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 3: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 1: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2376.9 @ 07:16 BST Jun 7
- SUP 1: $2314.4 - 50- day EMA
- SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
- SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
- SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
A short-term bear cycle in Gold remains in play for now, despite that latest recovery. Note that the medium-term trend structure is bullish and the recent move down appears to be a correction that is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Key resistance and the bull trigger is $2450.1,the May 20 high. The 50-day EMA, at $2314.4, represents a key support.
SILVER TECHS: Recovers From Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
- RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $31.222 @ 08:00 BST Jun 7
- SUP 1: $29.381 - Low Jun 4
- SUP 2: $28.550 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2
- SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
Silver has recovered from its recent lows. The trend remains bullish and the latest move down appears to be a correction that has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a break of resistance at $29.797, Apr 12 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has opened $33.880 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support at the 20-day EMA has been breached. The next level to monitor is $28.657, the 50-day EMA.
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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.