MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P Probes The 20-Day EMA

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Probes The 20-Day EMA

• In the equity space, the trend in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish. The contract however is trading higher. Attention is on the 20-day EMA that intersects at 4295.37. This has been probed, a clear break of it is required to suggest scope for a stronger short-term recovery. This would open the 50-day EMA at 4399.80. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are firmer too this morning. The move higher is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. Resistance to watch is at 3803.60, the 20-day EMA, that has also been breached today. A clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery and open the 50-day EMA at 3966.90.
• In FX, EURUSD is consolidating and remains below its key short-term resistance of 1.1121, the Jan 28 low, a recent breakout level plus last week’s high. The trend is down and a resumption of weakness would open 1.0767 next, the May 7 2020 low. Clearance of 1.1121 is needed to suggest scope for a stronger short-term correction. GBPUSD traded lower yesterday and touched 1.3000. A bearish theme remains intact and sights are on; 1.2954, the 1.764 projection of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing and 1.2933, the Nov 5 2020 low. Short-term gains are considered corrective. USDJPY remains in an uptrend. Last week’s key technical development was the break of resistance at 116.34/35, the Feb 10 / Jan 4 highs and a bull trigger. This confirmed a resumption of the broader uptrend and the rally has since accelerated. The next objective is 118.60/66, the Jan 3 ‘17 and Dec 15 ‘16 highs. This zone also represents a key resistance.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded lower yesterday and breached the 20-day EMA. This suggests scope for a deeper retracement. The next support is at $1901.5 next, the Mar 1 low. Oil markets continue to correct lower. The move down in WTI is still allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the 50-day EMA, currently at $93.46. This EMA highlights a key area of support. Initial firm resistance is at $110.29, the Mar 11 high.
• In the FI space, Bund futures maintain a bearish tone and have breached key support at 161.50, the Feb 10 low and a medium-term bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of this year’s downtrend and opens the 160.00 handle. Gilts remain weak and attention is on the key support at 121.10, Feb 16 low. This support has been probed. A clear break would open 120.00 and confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.1280 Low Feb 14
• RES 3: 1.1210/32 50-day EMA / 61.8% of Feb 10 - Mar 7 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1121 Low Jan 28, high Mar 10 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 1.1083 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 1.0974 @ 06:06 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 1.0890/06 Low Mar 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 3: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0654 2.50 proj of the Jan - Mar - May 2021 price swing

EURUSD is unchanged and is consolidating. The pair continues to trade below key short-term resistance at 1.1121 - the Jan 28 low, a recent breakout level plus the Mar 10 high. While this level holds, the outlook remains bearish and attention is on key support at 1.0806, Mar 7 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, a clear break of 1.1121 is required to signal scope for a stronger corrective rally that would open 1.1210, the 50-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Moving Average Studies Remain In A Bear Mode

• RES 4: 1.3386 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3358 Low Jan 27
• RES 2: 1.3261 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3195 High Mar 10
• PRICE: 1.3052 @ 06:13 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 1.3000 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933/07 Low Nov 5 2020 / 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD is trading near its recent lows. The outlook remains following last week’s move lower that confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend that started early Jan 2021. Moving average studies are in a bear mode, reinforcing the current condition. A break of the 1.3000 handle would open 1.2954, a 1.50 projection of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3195, the Mar 10 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 0.8553 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 0.8498/8504 High Dec 23 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8478 High Feb 7 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8456 Mar 15 High
• PRICE: 0.8406 @ 06:21 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 0.8360/17 20-day EMA / Low Mar 9
• SUP 2: 0.8278 Low Mar 7
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8131 Low Jun 27, 2016

EURGBP maintains a firmer tone and traded higher Tuesday but did pull back from the day high. The cross last week traded above the key resistance at the Feb 25 high of 0.8406. This has strengthened the short-term bullish condition and the move higher signals scope for an extension towards the next resistance at the early February highs of 0.8478. Initial firm support to watch is seen at 0.8317, the Mar 9 low. A break would be bearish.

USDJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 119.38 3.382 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
• RES 3: 119.18 3.236 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 118.60/66 High Jan 3 ‘17 / Dec 15 ‘16 and key resistance
• RES 1: 118.45 High Mar 15
• PRICE: 118.29 @ 06:28 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 117.28/116.35 Low Mar 14 / High Jan 4
• SUP 2: 116.04 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.34 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 114.65 Low Mar 4

USDJPY conditions remain bullish. This follows last week’s break of resistance at 116.34/35, the Feb 10 / Jan 4 highs and the impulsive rally that followed, highlighting an acceleration of the uptrend. The break higher last week confirmed a resumption of the broader uptrend that started early Jan 2021. Attention is on the 118.60/66 key resistance zone. On the downside, initial support is seen at 117.28, Monday’s low.

EURJPY TECHS: Eyeing The 130.00 Handle

• RES 4: 131.91 High Feb 16
• RES 3: 131.08 76.4% Retracement Feb - Mar Downleg
• RES 2: 130.71 High Feb 23
• RES 1: 130.21 Intraday high
• PRICE: 130.01 @ 09:27 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 128.63 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 127.42 Low Mar 10
• SUP 3: 126.01 Low Mar 9
• SUP 4: 124.40 Low Mar 7 and a key support

EURJPY remains in a short-term uptrend following last week’s gains and the cross pushed higher yesterday. The 61.8% retracement of the Feb - Mar downleg, at 129.81, has been probed and the 50-day EMA has been cleared. This strengthens the current bull theme and signals potential for a climb above the 130.00 handle towards 131.08, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm support is at 127.42, the Mar 10 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 0.7532 High Nov 2, 2021
• RES 3: 0.7441 High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.7368 High Mar 10
• RES 1: 0.7245/7301 Low Mar 8 / High Mar 14
• PRICE: 0.7232 @ 06:49 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 0.7149 61.8% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 7 upleg
• SUP 2: 0.7095 Low Feb 24 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.7080 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 7 upleg
• SUP 4: 0.7052 Low Feb 4

AUDUSD stabilised into the Tuesday close, but managed to print a new weekly low of 0.7165 in the process. Recent weakness suggests potential for a deeper correction. The price pattern on Mar 7 - a bearish shooting star candle - was an early sign of a top and is still in play. The 50-day EMA has been breached, reinforcing current bearish conditions. This has opened 0.7095, the Feb 24 low. Initial resistance is seen at 0.7245, the Mar 8 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 1.3024 38.2% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘21 bear cycle
• RES 3: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 1: 1.2871/2901 High Mar 15 / High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2735 @ 06:56 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 1.2720/2694 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11
• SUP 2: 1.2587 Low Mar 3
• SUP 3: 1.2552 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally
• SUP 4: 1.2499 Low Jan 21

USDCAD failed to hold onto yesterday’s gain and is trading lower today. Friday’s low of 1.2694 is seen as a key S/T support. Attention has been on resistance at 1.2901, Mar 8 high where a break would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend and open 1.2964, the Dec 20 high. Moving averages continue to suggest the trend is up. A break of 1.2694 would alter the short-term picture though and signal scope for a deeper pullback.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Clears Key Support

• RES 4: 165.29 High Mar 9
• RES 3: 164.43 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 163.96 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 163.20 High Mar 11
• PRICE: 161.09@ 09:15 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 160.86 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 160.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 159.81 123.6% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 rally
• SUP 4: 159.19 Low Nov 8 2018 (cont)

Bund futures remain vulnerable following recent weakness. The contract has cleared support at 161.50, the Feb 10 low. This has strengthened the bearish theme and importantly, confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend and the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 161.00 has also been probed, opening the psychological 160.00 handle. Initial resistance is at 163.20.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Eyeing The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 134.080 High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 133.390 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 132.590 High Mar 9
• RES 1: 131.787 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.950 @ 05:11 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 130.410 Low Feb 8 and a key support
• SUP 2: 130.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 129.554 123.6% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 upleg
• SUP 4: 128.820 Low Dec 4 2015 (cont)

Bobl futures remain in its current bear cycle following last week’s retracement from 134.080, Mar 7 high. Support at 132.130, the Mar 1 low and 131.726, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 rally, have been cleared. This suggests potential for a continuation lower and attention is on the key support at 130.410, the Feb 8 low and the bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is at 132.590, the Mar 9 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 112.300 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 112.210 High Mar 7 and short-term key resistance
• RES 2: 112.015 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 111.560/850 High Mar 11 / High Mar 9
• PRICE: 111.450 @ 05:11 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 111.245 Low Mar 14/15
• SUP 2: 111.240 Low Feb 23 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 111.145 Low Feb 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 111.100 Round number support

Schatz futures recovered yesterday but are still trading closer to their recent lows. It is still possible that last week’s move lower is a correction although the break of support at 111.655, Mar 3 low, suggests potential for a deeper pullback. This has opened 111.240, the Feb 23 low and a key short-term support. On the upside, a strong recovery would signal the end of the current bear leg and refocus attention on the key resistance at 112.210.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Key Support Probed

• RES 4: 126.81 High Mar 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 125.85 High Mar 4
• RES 2: 124.60 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 123.52 High Mar 9
• PRICE: 121.30 @ Close Mar 15
• SUP 1: 121.10/ 08 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 120.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 119.75 123.6% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb
• SUP 4: 118.92 138.2% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb

Gilt futures started the week on a softer note, trading lower Monday. This marks an extension of the recent pullback from the Mar 1 high of 126.81. The contract has breached support at 123.50, Mar 1 low and 122.04, the Feb 23 low. This has exposed the key support at 121.10, Feb 16 low and the bear trigger (probed this morning). On the upside, a strong rebound would ease the bearish threat. Initial firm resistance is seen at $123.52, the Mar 9 high.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 147.93 High Jan 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 146.74 High Mar 1
• RES 2: 145.06 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 141.79/43.85 20-day EMA / High Mar 10
• PRICE: 140.02 @ Close Mar 15
• SUP 1: 138.99 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 138.60 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 138.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 137.52 Low May 18 2020 (cont)

BTP futures traded remain vulnerable The recent break of support at 142.51, Mar 1 low, signalled an important intraday breach that led to a move below 140.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 16 - Mar 1 rally. This, together with the recent follow through, suggests scope for a continuation lower and has exposed key support at 138.60, Feb 16 low and the bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 143.85, Mar 10 high.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (M2): Challenging The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 3: 4578.50 High Feb 9 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4399.80 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4326.75 High Mar 11
• PRICE: 4301.75 @ 09:26 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 4094.25 Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3983.25 1.00 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 9 price swing

The trend in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish however, the contract is trading higher this morning. Attention is on the 20-day EMA that intersects at 4295.37. This has been probed, a clear break of it is required to suggest scope for a stronger short-term recovery. This would open the 50-day EMA at 4399.80. On the downside, the bear trigger is unchanged at 4094.25, the Feb 24 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 4119.50 High Feb 21
• RES 2: 3966.90 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3922.50 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 3845.00 @ 09:20 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 3546.00/3380.00 Low Mar 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 3318.60 2.382 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 3246.30 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a downtrend, however, a corrective cycle is still in play following last week’s recovery. The move higher is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. Resistance to watch is at 3803.60, the 20-day EMA, that has been breached today. A clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery and open the 50-day EMA at 3966.90. The latter EMA is a key resistance. The bear trigger is unchanged at 3380.00.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Support Lies At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $139.13 - High Mar 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $131.64 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $118.36 - High Mar 10
• RES 1: $113.91 - High Mar 11
• PRICE: $102.40 @ 07:00 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: $97.44 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: $96.05 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $92.75 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $88.25 - Low Feb 18

Brent futures remain vulnerable having started the week on a softer note and the contract traded lower again Tuesday. Price is through the 20-day EMA and this signals potential for an extension lower with the focus on the 50-day EMA at $96.05 - this EMA represents a key area of support. The current pullback is likely a correction. Initial resistance is at 113.91, the Mar 11 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $130.50 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $126.84 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $114.88 - High Mar 10
• RES 1: $110-29 - High Mar 11
• PRICE: $97.85 @ 07:13 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: $93.34 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $90.06 - Low Feb 23 and a key support
• SUP 3: $87.46 - Low Feb 18
• SUP 4: $85.24 - Low Feb 3

WTI futures traded lower Tuesday, extending the pullback from 130.50, the Mar 7 high. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this has exposed the 50-day EMA, currently at $93.46. This EMA highlights a key area of support. The recent move lower is still considered corrective with trend signals continuing to highlight an uptrend. Initial resistance is at $110.29, the Mar 11 high. A break would ease the bearish threat.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: $2119.3 - 3.382 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2104.6 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and the all-time high
• RES 1: $2009.2/2070.4 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8
• PRICE: $1914.9 @ 07:16 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: $1901.5 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: $1886.5 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally

Gold traded low Tuesday, extending the pullback from last week’s Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The broader trend condition remains bullish though and the pullback is considered corrective. The move lower is also allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this opens $1901.5 next, the Mar 1 low. On the upside, an initial firm short-term resistance is seen at $2009.2, the Mar 10 high.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends Below The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $27.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $26.063/943 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $24.852 @ 07:58 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: $24.535 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: $24.194 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $22.863 - Low Feb 11

Silver remains in an uptrend however the recent pullback - a correction - is still in play and signals potential for a deeper short-term pullback. The metal has breached the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA at 24.194. This EMA marks an important support. A reversal higher and move above $26.00 would refocus attention on the key resistance at 26.943, the Mar 8 high.