MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Support Remains Exposed for EStoxx50

Price Signal Summary – Support Remains Exposed for EStoxx50

• In the equity space, medium-term E-Mini S&P technical conditions are bearish however price remains above last Thursday’s 4101.75 low. S/T technical signals highlight potential for a correction near-term. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above last week’s low of 3749.50. Price action is likely to remain volatile, however, from a trend perspective the outlook still appears bearish and support remains exposed.
• In FX, EURUSD recovered from yesterday’s low however the outlook remains bearish and the pair appears vulnerable. This follows the Feb 24 sell-off that breached support at 1.1280, the Feb 14 low and 1.1209, the 76.4% retracement of the recent Jan 28 - Feb 10 upleg. GBPUSD continues to trade above recent lows. A bearish threat remains intact following the move lower on Jan 24 and attention is on last week’s low of 1.3273. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of key support at 1.3358, the Jan 27 low.
• On the commodity front, volatile price action in Gold late last week saw the yellow metal reverse lower from the Feb 24 high of $1974.3. The outlook is bullish following recent gains. WTI futures remain in an uptrend. The contract traded higher Feb 24 and confirmed a resumption of its uptrend and an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• In the FI space, Bund futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The short term tone remains positive and price is back above its trendline resistance at 166.70. The trendline is drawn from the Dec 20 high. Gilt futures remain inside its recent range. The medium-term trend condition is bearish however the risk of a stronger short-term corrective bounce remains present.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 1.1608 High Nov 9, 2021
• RES 3: 1.1558 38.2% retracement of the May ‘21 - Jan 28 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1396/1.1495 High Feb 16 / High Feb 10
• RES 1: 1.1280/1313 Low Feb 14 / Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.1198 @ 06:05 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 1.1106 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1040 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Mar ‘21 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.0976 2.00 projection of the Jan - Jun - May ‘21 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.0871 Low May 25, 2020

EURUSD recovered from yesterday’s low however the outlook remains bearish and the pair appears vulnerable. This follows the Feb 24 sell-off that breached support at 1.1280, the Feb 14 low and 1.1209, the 76.4% retracement of the recent Jan 28 - Feb 10 upleg. The move lower has strengthened the bearish threat and also resulted in a probe of support at 1.1121, the Jan 28 low and a bear trigger. Resistance is seen at 1.1280.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 1.3670/49 200-dma / High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3662 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 1.3643/44 High Feb 18 / 10
• RES 1: 1.3487 Low Feb 15 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: 1.3416 @ 06:12 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 1.3273 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3240 Low Dec 22
• SUP 3: 1.3174 Low Dec 20
• SUP 4: 1.3163 Low Dec 8 and a key support

GBPUSD continues to trade above recent lows. A bearish threat remains intact following the move lower on Jan 24 and attention is on last week’s low of 1.3273. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of key support at 1.3358, the Jan 27 low. 1.3301, 76.4% of the Dec 8 - Jan 13 rally has also been probed. A clear break would strengthen bearish pressure and open 1.3163, Dec 8 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3487.

EURGBP TECHS: Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 0.8512 High Dec 22
• RES 3: 0.8480 61.8% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8432/78 High Feb 11 / High Feb 7
• RES 1: 0.8406 High Feb 25
• PRICE: 0.8345 @ 06:16 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 0.8306/8285 Low Feb 24 / Low Feb 3 and key support
• SUP 2: 0.8282/77 Low Feb’20 / Dec’19 and key bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8242 50% Fibonacci Retracement 2015-2020 Upleg
• SUP 4: 0.8238 0.764 proj of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 - 7 Price swing

EURGBP is trading below last week’s high of 0.8406 but remains above key support at 0.8285, the Feb 3 low. Last week’s recovery from 0.8306, Feb 24 low, suggests the short-term tone is bullish and if correct, highlights potential for a stronger recovery towards the Feb 7 high of 0.8478. This represents a key short-term resistance. Weakness below 0.8306 would undermine a bullish theme while a breach of 0.8285 would resume the downtrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 118.07 2.236 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 3: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 2: 116.34/35 High Feb 10 / High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.87 High Feb 15
• PRICE: 115.10 @ 06:23 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 114.41 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 114.16 Low Feb 02
• SUP 3: 113.47 Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 4: 113.14 Low Dec 17

USDJPY is consolidating and trading above the Feb 24 low of 114.41. A key support at 114.16 remains intact, the Feb 2 low. The underlying trend condition is bullish highlighted by a positive moving average set-up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the 116.34/35 key resistance. For bears, weakness below 114.41 and more importantly 114.16, would highlight a bearish threat and expose 113.47, Jan 24 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 133.48 High Oct 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 133.15 High Feb 10 and key resistance
• RES 2: 130.90/131.91 High Feb 21 / High Feb 16
• RES 1: 130.18 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 128.89 @ 06:28 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 127.92 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 127.52 Low Dec 20
• SUP 3: 127.39 Low Dec 3 / 6 and a key support
• SUP 4: 126.44 Low Feb 9 2021

A EURJPY bearish threat remains present. The cross traded to a low of 127.92 last week, confirming a break of key support at 128.25, Jan 25 low. The breach of this support confirms a 100.0% retracement of the recent Jan 25 - Feb 10 bull phase and signals potential for a deeper pullback towards 127.52, Dec 20 low and 127.39, Dec 3 and 6 low. Gains are considered corrective - initial resistance is seen at 130.18, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 0.7371 High Nov 15, 2021
• RES 3: 0.7345 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.7314 High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.7284 High Feb 23
• PRICE: 0.7269 @ 06:36 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 0.7184 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.7095 Low Feb 24 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 0.7086/7052 Low Feb 14 / Low Feb 4
• SUP 4: 0.6968/6963 Low Jan 28 / Low Jul 16, 2020

AUDUSD traded higher Monday and is approaching the first resistance at 0.7284, the Feb 23 high. A key resistance intersects just above at 0.7314, Jan 13 high. Clearance of the 0.7284 to 0.7314 zone would strengthen the case for bulls and open 0.7371, Nov 15 high. A key short-term support has been defined at 0.7095, the Feb 24 low where a break would instead highlight a bearish threat and expose 0.6968, the Feb 14 low and a key support.

USDCAD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 1.3009 High Dec 1 2020
• RES 3: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 1: 1.2878 High Feb 24
• PRICE: 1.2670 @ 06:48 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 1.2660/36 Low Feb 28 / Low Feb 10 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.2560 Low Jan 26
• SUP 3: 1.2451/48 Low Jan 19 / 76.4% of the Oct - Dec rally
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10

USDCAD has failed to hold onto recent highs and traded lower Monday. The pullback refocuses attention on near-term support at 1.2636, the Feb 10 and a key short-term level. A break would signal potential for a deeper sell-off. The recent focus has been a bullish one and an ability to remain above 1.2636 and resume gains, would again open the key resistance at 1.2964, the Dec 22 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H2) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 170.42 High Jan 27
• RES 3: 169.68 50.0% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 16 downleg
• RES 2: 168.44 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 168.01 High Feb 24
• PRICE: 167.45 @ 05:09 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 165.87/16 Low Feb 25 / Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 164.34 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 164.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 163.63 Low Mar, 2019 (cont)

Bund futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The short term tone remains positive and price is back above its trendline resistance at 166.70. The trendline is drawn from the Dec 20 high. Price action signals scope for a move towards the 50-day EMA at 168.44. This EMA represents a key resistance area and note that the broader trend direction remains down. Initial firm support to watch is at 165.16, the Feb 22 low.

BOBL TECHS: (H2) Trades Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 133.250 High Jan 24
• RES 3: 133.830 61.8% retracement of the Nov 30 - Feb 10 bear cycle
• RES 2: 132.680 High Jan 31
• RES 1: 132.480 High Feb 24
• PRICE: 132.210 @ 05:15 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 131.362/130.730 20-day EMA / Low Feb 22 / 23
• SUP 2: 130.510 Low Feb 15
• SUP 3: 130.080 Low Feb 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 130.000 Psychological round number

Bobl futures traded higher Monday and breached last week’s high to maintain a firmer short-term tone. Recent gains signal scope for a continuation higher and note that price has traded above the 50-day EMA at 132.078. The EMA represents a key resistance area and a clear break would further strengthen the case for short-term bulls. Initial firm support to watch is at 130.710, the Feb 22/23 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H2) Probes A Key Resistance

• RES 4: 112.305 High Nov 26
• RES 3: 112.285 High Nov 30
• RES 2: 112.265, High Dec 20
• RES 1: 112.165 High Feb 28
• PRICE: 112.095 @ 05:22 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 111.815/635 Low Feb 28 / Low Feb 23
• SUP 2: 111.545/420 Low Feb 15 / Low Feb 11
• SUP 3: 111.250 Low Feb 7
• SUP 4: 111.185 Low Jun 26, 2015 (cont)

Schatz futures remain in a bullish short-term cycle. The move higher is still considered a correction, however, price has cleared a number of resistance levels. The 50-day EMA has been breached and price has probed the 112.145 key resistance point, the Jan 24 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would further strengthen bullish conditions and open 112.265, the Dec 20 high. Initial support is seen at yesterday’s low of 111.815.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Still Inside Its Range

• RES 4: 125.04 1.236 proj of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 124.47 1.00 proj of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 124.00 Round number support
• RES 1: 123.53/54 High Feb 18/28 and the near-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 123.08 @ Close Feb 28
• SUP 1: 122.04 Low Feb 23 and a key intraday support
• SUP 2: 121.10 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 121.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 120.00 Psychological handle

Gilt futures remain inside its recent range. The medium-term trend condition is bearish however the risk of a stronger short-term corrective bounce remains present. Initial resistance to watch is at 123.54, the Feb 28 high where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the recent recovery from the 121.10 low of Feb 16. This 121.10 level represents a key short-term handle and is the trigger for a resumption of the primary downtrend.

BTP TECHS: (H2) Clears The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 144.94 76.4% retracement of the Jan 31 - Feb 16 downleg
• RES 3: 144.54 Low Jan 27
• RES 2: 143.37 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 142.62 High Feb 28
• PRICE: 141.15 @ Close Feb 28
• SUP 1: 138.63/06 Low Feb 22 / 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 137.52 Low May 18, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 136.86 Low May 13, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 136.60 2.0% 10-dma envelope

BTP futures remain in a downtrend however, a short-term corrective cycle dominates following last week’s gains and yesterday's bullish start to the week. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 143.37. This average represents a key short-term resistance level and a clear break would strengthen the current bullish theme. On the downside, the key bear trigger is unchanged at 138.06, Feb 16 low.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (H2): Technical Signals Suggest Scope For Corrective Gains

• RES 4: 4671.75 High Jan 18
• RES 3: 4586.00 High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4494.61 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4408.26 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4377.75 @ 06:53 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 4101.75 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3990.50 0.764 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing

Medium-term E-Mini S&P technical conditions are bearish however price remains above last Thursday’s 4101.75 low. S/T technical signals highlight potential for a correction near-term. Bullish divergence between price and momentum signals scope for some unwinding of recent weakness or at the very least, a period of consolidation. Note that last Thursday’s candle pattern is a hammer - a reversal signal. Initial resistance is seen at 4408.26.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Bearish Risk Remains Present

• RES 4: 4381.50 High Jan 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4324.50 High Jan 13
• RES 2: 4125.20/4250.00 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• RES 1: 4049.50 High Feb 23
• PRICE: 3886.50 @ 05:43 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: 3749.50 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3727.00 Low Mar 25 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 3709.60 1.382 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 3663.50 1.50 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above last week’s low of 3749.50. Price action is likely to remain volatile, however, from a trend perspective the outlook still appears bearish and support remains exposed. Attention is on 3749.50, the Feb 24 low where a break would confirm a resumption of weakness and this year’s downtrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 4049.50, Feb 23 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Trend Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: $106.02 - 3.50 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $104.77 - 3.382 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: $103.22 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $102.26 - High Feb 24
• PRICE: $99.91 @ 07:04 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: $92.75 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 2: $91.94 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $88.25 - Low Feb 18
• SUP 4: $87.12 - 50-day EMA

Brent futures remain in an uptrend and attention is on the Feb 24 high of $102.26. Last week’s key technical development was the breach of the psychological barrier at $100.00. This marks an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and paves the way for a climb towards $103.22 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is seen at $92.75, Friday’s low.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Looking To Retest The $100.00 Handle

• RES 4: $105.25 - High Jul 22, 2014 (cont)
• RES 3: $103.28 - 3.50 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: $102.01 - 3.382 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $100.54 - High Feb 24
• PRICE: $97.40 @ 07:10 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: $90.06 - Low Feb 23 and a key support
• SUP 2: $87.46 - Low Feb 18
• SUP 3: $84.92 - Low Feb 1
• SUP 4: $84.83 - 50-day EMA

WTI futures remain in an uptrend. The contract traded higher Feb 24 and confirmed a resumption of its uptrend and an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The $100.00 level has been probed and a clear breach of this psychological barrier would strengthen current trend conditions. This would open 102.01 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support is seen at $90.06, Friday’s low.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Inside Its Channel

• RES 4: $1992.5 - High Sep 1 2020
• RES 3: $1980.8 - 2.00 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: $1974.3 - High Feb 24
• RES 1: $1940.9 - Bull channel top drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low
• PRICE: $1907.2 @ 07:18 GMT MAr 1
• SUP 1: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $1853.9 - High Jan 25
• SUP 3: $1844.7 - Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11

Volatile price action in Gold late last week saw the yellow metal reverse lower from the Feb 24 high of $1974.3. The outlook is bullish following recent gains. Gold however is back inside its bull channel, drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low. The channel top intersects at $1940.9 today and represents a key S/T resistance. For bears, a breach of last Thursday’s $1878.4 low would suggest the tide has turned and signal scope for a pullback within the channel.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook Intact

• RES 4: $26.775 - High Jul 6 2021
• RES 3: $26.467 - High Jul 14, 2021
• RES 2: $26.002 - High Aug 4, 2021
• RES 1: $25.692/625 - High Feb 28 / High Feb 24
• PRICE: $24.459 @ 07:59 GMT Mar 1
• SUP 1: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: $23.443 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.863/008 - Low Feb 11 / Low Feb 3 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: $21.949 - Low Jan 7

Silver traded in an extremely volatile manner on Feb 24, rallying to a high of $25.625 before reversing lower. Despite the pullback, the outlook remains bullish and scope is seen for a continuation higher to retest $25.406, the Nov 16 2021 high. This level was probed last week, a clear break would strengthen the case for bulls. On the downside, initial support lies at $23.850, the Feb 24 low. Dips would be considered corrective.