MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Downleg Triggers Bullish Signals Across G10 FX

Price Signal Summary – USD Downleg Triggers Bullish Signals Across G10 FX

• A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at 4498.00, the Jun 30 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to this week’s gains. The break higher has resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA at 4331.70 and price is through 4371.00, the Jul 6 high.
• GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. This week’s clearance of resistance at 1.2848, the Jun 16 high, confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. USDJPY cemented a bearish tone Wednesday, trading lower and extending the bear cycle that started Jun 30. The recent sell-off has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and price is again inside the bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. A strong rally in AUDUSD has resulted in the break of a number of key near-term retracement levels, including 0.6828 today, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jun 16 - 29.
• Gold traded higher again yesterday and in the process managed to trade through resistance at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at $1944.4 and the break signal scope for a continuation of the current corrective cycle. The current bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact. The contract has recently breached $72.72, the Jun 21 high and yesterday’s move higher resulted in a break of key resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high. This strengthens current bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards $78.03.
• Short-term gains in Bund futures are considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bearish. Price has recently cleared key support and the bear trigger at 132.12, the May 26 low. The break strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The Gilt futures trend needle continues to point south and yesterday’s gains are considered corrective. The recent break of key support at 93.88, the Jun 20 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Tops Key Medium-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 1.1274 61.8% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Sep ‘22 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.1211 1.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 22 - Jul 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 1: 1.1160 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 1.1146 @ 05:48 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 1.1012 High Jun 22
• SUP 3: 1.1004 Low Jul 12
• SUP 4: 1.0930 20-day EMA

EURUSD traded sharply higher yesterday and continues to appreciate. This week’s rally has resulted in a move above 1.1012, the Jun 22 high and 1.1095, the Apr 26 high and key resistance. The move above 1.1095 confirms a resumption of the M/T uptrend. MA studies are in bull-mode position reinforcing current trend conditions. The focus is on 1.1185, the Mar 31 2022 high. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 1.1012.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.3165 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 8 low
• RES 3: 1.3131 1.00 proj of the May 25 - Jun 16 - Jun 29 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3090 High Apr 21
• RES 1: 1.3035 High Apr 22 2022
• PRICE: 1.3009 @ 05:57 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 1.2904/2848 Low Jul 12 / High Jun 16
• SUP 2: 1.2751/2674 20-day EMA / Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: 1.2674 Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: 1.2625/13 50-day EMA / Channel base drawn from Mar 8 low

GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. This week’s clearance of resistance at 1.2848, the Jun 16 high, confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. The focus is on 1.3035 next, the Apr 22 2022 high. Initial firm support lies at 1.2751, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Theme Intact

• RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8623/58 50-day EMA / High Jun 28 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8584 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8567 @ 06:08 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 0.8504 Low Jul 11
• SUP 2: 0.8477 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2022

The primary trend direction in EURGBP is unchanged and remains down despite Wednesday’s rally. This week’s break of support at 0.8518, the Jun 19 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for a continuation lower. Moving average studies are in bear-mode position, highlighting current trend conditions. The focus is on 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8584, the Jul 10 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 144.20 High Jul 7
• RES 3: 1143.01 High Jul 10
• RES 2: 142.06 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 140.27 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 138.60 @ 06:40 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 138.08 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 137.36 50.0% retracement of the Mar 24 - Jun 30 bull leg
• SUP 3: 137.22 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

USDJPY cemented a bearish tone Wednesday, trading lower and extending the bear cycle that started Jun 30. The recent sell-off has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and price is again inside the bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. The move signals scope for an extension towards 137.36, a Fibonacci retracement and 137.22, the 4.0% 10-dma envelope. Initial firm resistance is at 140.27, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 157.12/158.00 High Jul 6 / High Jun 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 155.67 High Jul 11
• PRICE: 154.51 @ 06:50 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 153.33 Trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low
• SUP 2: 152.68 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 151.61 Low Jun 15
• SUP 4: 151.07 High May 29

The current bear cycle in EURJPY remains in play and the cross traded lower Wednesday. Sights are on a trendline support at 153.33 and 152.68, the 50-day EMA. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 24 low. A break of the 153.33-152.68 support zone would strengthen bearish conditions and pave the way for a continuation lower. Initial resistance is seen at 155.67, Tuesday’s high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Clearing Resistance Levels

• RES 4: 0.6993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - May 31 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6936 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6857 High Jun 20
• PRICE: 0.6833 @ 08:04 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 0.6784 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6694 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6651 Low Jul 11
• SUP 4: 0.6596 Low Jun 29 and key support

A strong rally in AUDUSD has resulted in the break of a number of key near-term retracement levels, including 0.6828 today, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jun 16 - 29. This highlights a stronger short-term bullish theme and signals scope for a climb towards 0.6900, the Jun 16 high and a key resistance. Initial support lies at today’s intraday low of 0.6784. A firmer level lies at 0.6694, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 1.3386/87 50.0% of the May 26 - Jun 27 downleg / High Jul 7
• RES 3: 1.3370 50-dma
• RES 2: 1.3304 High Jul 10
• RES 1: 1.3266 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3156 @ 08:13 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 1.3144 Low Jul 12
• SUP 2: 1.3117 Low Jun 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3032 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing

USDCAD remains soft on the back of this week’s bearish price action. A bearish engulfing candle on Jul 7 continues to highlight a reversal and attention turns to key support at 1.3117, the Jun 27 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started on Oct 13 2022. This would pave the way for weakness towards 1.3084, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3266, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Bounce Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 134.14/135.00 High Jul 3 / High Jun 27
• RES 3: 133.68 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 132.71 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 132.18 Low Jun 16
• PRICE: 132.06 @ 05:07 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 130.60 Low Jul 10
• SUP 2: 130.46 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 16 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 129.93 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 16 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 129.49 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 16 - 27 price swing

Short-term gains in Bund futures are considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bearish. Price has recently cleared key support and the bear trigger at 132.12, the May 26 low. The break strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend. This opens 130.46, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in bear-mode position, reinforcing a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is at 132.18, the Jun 16 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 116.450 High Jun 26 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 116.280 High Jun 29
• RES 2: 115.910 High Jul 3
• RES 1: 115.519 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 115.300 @ 05:12 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 114.550 Low Jul 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 114.432 1.764 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 114.130 Low Mar 6 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 114.090 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bobl futures remain in a downtrend and recent gains are considered corrective. The break lower on Jul 6 confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. The focus is on 114.130, the Mar 6 low on the continuation chart. Initial firm resistance is at 115.519, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 105.185 High Jun 15
• RES 3: 105.130 High Jun 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 105.055 High Jun 28
• RES 1: 104.909 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 104.815 @ 05:46 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 104.570 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.335 Low Mar 9 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 104.264 2.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend following last week’s extension lower. Recent weakness confirms a resumption of the trend and a continuation of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, reinforcing current conditions. The focus is on 104.470 next, a Fibonacci projection (cont). Initial firm resistance is at 104.909, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Bearish Despite Yesterday’s Bounce

• RES 4: 96.19 High Jun 29
• RES 3: 96.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 95.48 High Jul 3
• RES 1: 94.53 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 93.96 @ Close Jul 12
• SUP 1: 92.82/09 Low Jul 12 / Low Jul 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 92.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 91.80 1.382 proj of the Jun 1 - 20 - 23 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 91.36 1.50 proj of the Jun 1 - 20 - 23 price swing (cont)

The Gilt futures trend needle continues to point south and yesterday’s gains are considered corrective. The recent break of key support at 93.88, the Jun 20 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This signals scope for a move to 91.80 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 94.53, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 116.52 High Jul 3
• RES 2: 115.66 High Jul 4 and 5
• RES 1: 114.95 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 114.29 @ Close Jul 12
• SUP 1: 112.95 Low Jul 11
• SUP 2: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support
• SUP 4: 111.00 Round number support

A sharp sell-off in BTP futures recently reinforced a bearish theme and confirmed an extension of the reversal from 117.60, the Jun 26 high. The trend condition remains bearish and yesterday’s gains are considered corrective. Scope is seen for a move towards 111.78, the May 26 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 114.95, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this average would ease the current bearish threat.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4501.60 1.618 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4472.24 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4447.00 High Jul 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4413.00 High Jul 5
• PRICE: 4392.00 @ 06:44 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 4321.00/4220.00 Low Jul 12 / 7 and key support
• SUP 2: 4208.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4152.20 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle

Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to this week’s gains. The break higher has resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA at 4331.70 and price is through 4371.00, the Jul 6 high. Clearance of this latter level highlights a potentially stronger bull cycle and attention turns to key resistance and the bull trigger at 4447.00, the Jul 3 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4220.00, the Jul 7 low.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Clears Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 4579.04 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 13 low
• RES 3: 4576.62 2.50projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 4556.71 2.382 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 4532.08 2.236 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• PRICE: 4517.00 @ 07:09 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 4428.89/4368.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 26 and a key support
• SUP 2: 4336.46 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4343.16 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low
• SUP 4: 4269.50 Low Jun 2

A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at 4498.00, the Jun 30 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The contract has also traded through 4500.00 and this opens 4532.08, a Fibonacci projection. First support lies at 4428.89, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would be a short-term bearish development.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U3) Bullish Extension

• RES 4: $85.47 - High Apr 12 and 13
• RES 3: $83.77 - High Apr 19
• RES 2: $82.06 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 12 - May 4 downleg
• RES 1: $80.55 - High Jul 12
• PRICE: $80.36 @ 06:56 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: $76.52 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $75.03/71.43 - Low May 31
• SUP 3: $71.00 - Low Jul 6 / May 4
• SUP 4: $69.95 - Low Mar 20 and a key support

Bullish conditions in Brent futures remain intact and the contract traded higher again yesterday. This week’s gains have resulted in a move above resistance at $78.47, the Jun 5 high. The continuation higher signals scope for a climb towards $82.06, a Fibonacci retracement. Key near-term support has been defined at $75.03, the Jul 6 low. A break of this level is required to signal a possible top.

WTI TECHS: (Q3) Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: $80.39 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $78.62 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $78.03 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 12 - May 4 bear leg
• RES 1: $76.15 - High Jul 5
• PRICE: $75.94 @ 07:04 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: $71.83 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $69.69/66.96 - Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 12 and key support
• SUP 3: $64.41 - Low May 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

The current bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact. The contract has recently breached $72.72, the Jun 21 high and yesterday’s move higher resulted in a break of key resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high. This strengthens current bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards $78.03, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key short-term support has been defined at $66.96, the Jun 12 low. Initial support is at $71.83, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Has Cleared Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 3: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 2: $1985.3 - High May 24 and key resistance
• RES 1: $1968.0 - High Jun 16
• PRICE: $1960.6 @ 07:23 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: $1931.70 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1902.8/1893.1 - Low Jul 6 / Jun 29
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

Gold traded higher again yesterday and in the process managed to trade through resistance at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at $1944.4 and the break signal scope for a continuation of the current corrective cycle. This opens $1968.00, the Jun 16 high. Key resistance has been defined at $1985.3, the May 24 high where a break would highlight a stronger reversal. Key support and the bear is at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low.

SILVER TECHS: Break Higher Exposes Key Resistance

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $24.530 - High Jun 9 and key resistance
• PRICE: $23.240 @ 08:20 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: $23.192 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $22.527/111 - Low Jul 6 / Low Jun 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 4: $20.591 - Low Mar 13

Silver maintains a firmer short-term tone and the metal traded higher yesterday. Resistance at $23.440, the 50-day EMA, has been cleared. The break signals scope for a climb towards the next important resistance at $24.530, the Jun 9 high. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a stronger short-term reversal. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention $22.111, the Jun 23 low and bear trigger.