MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Breaks to New High

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Breaks to New YTD High

• S&P E-Minis are trading lower again today, marking an extension of the current bear cycle. This reinforces the bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation with attention on 3902.01 next, a Fibonacci retracement. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bearish and yesterday’s move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The contract has cleared 3526.00, 61.8% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally.
• USDJPY short-term conditions are unchanged and remain bullish. The pair has traded higher today and in the process cleared resistance at 139.39, the Jul 14 high. The break of this level confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards the 140.00 handle. EURUSD remains vulnerable and recent gains are considered corrective. The is trading below 1.0090, Aug 26 high and a key near-term resistance. The downtrend is intact and moving average studies still highlight bearish sentiment. USDCAD continues to head north and is again firmer today. This reinforces a bull theme and confirms an extension of recent gains. This week’s move higher has exposed 1.3224, a key resistance and the Jul 14 high.
• Gold remains in a clear short-term downtrend and this week’s extension reinforces a bearish condition. Support at $1727.8, Aug 22 low has been breached to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. WTI futures reversed course Tuesday and the sharp sell-off threatens the recent bullish theme. A strong reversal pattern has appeared on the daily chart - a bearish engulfing candle on Tuesday.
• Bund futures remain in bear mode and the contract continues to weaken. Price is through 147.94, 61.8% of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 bull leg. The break reinforces bearish conditions and sets the scene for a move towards 146.50 next, the Jun 30 low. Gilt futures remain vulnerable and the bearish impulsive run that started early August, continued Wednesday. The breach of support on Tuesday at 108.94, the Aug 24 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.0327 High Aug 12
• RES 3: 1.0211 Channel top drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 2: 1.0193 High Aug 18
• RES 1: 1.0090 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.0009 @ 06:07 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 0.9972/9883 Low Aug 31 / 1.764 proj of Jun 9-15-27 swing
• SUP 2: 0.9800 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9672 Channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high

EURUSD remains vulnerable and recent gains are considered corrective. The is trading below 1.0090, Aug 26 high and a key near-term resistance. The downtrend is intact and moving average studies still highlight bearish sentiment. Recent weakness resulted in breach of former key support at 0.9952, Jul 14 low. This confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on 0.9883 next, a Fibonacci projection.

GBPUSD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 1.2039 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2004 Low Aug 5
• RES 2: 1.1880/ 1901 20-day EMA / High Aug 26 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1760 Low Jul 14 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: 1.1580 @ 06:24 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 1.1568 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1495 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1447 Low Mar 23 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1412 Low Mar 20 2020 and a major support

GBPUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading lower again today, retaining the bearish theme. This week’s sell-off has resulted in a break of 1.1718, Aug 23 low. This confirms a resumption of primary downtrend. Note that moving average studies are in a clear bear mode position too, highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on 1.1503 next, Mar 24 2020 low. 1.1901, Aug 26 high marks the first key short-term resistance.

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Rally Extends

• RES 4: 0.8811 1.236 proj of the Apr 14 - Jun 15 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 0.8721 High Jun 15 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8679 High Jul 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8666 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 0.8647 @ 06:36 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 0.8572 Low Aug 31
• SUP 2: 0.8512 High Aug 19 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 0.8487 20-day EMA
• SUP 4:0.8408 Low Aug 23

EURGBP traded higher again Wednesday as the impulsive bull run extends. The cross has cleared a number of short-term resistance points and attention is on 0.8666, a 2.0% 10-dma envelope value and 0.8679, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this latter level would expose the key resistance at 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and an important bull trigger. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.8572, yesterday’s low.

USDJPY TECHS: Fresh YTD High

• RES 4: 140.86 1.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 3: 140.11 1.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 2: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 139.68 Intraday high
• PRICE: 139.32 @ 06:44 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 138.05 Low Aug 30
• SUP 2: 136.54 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 135.21 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 133.91 Low Aug 17

USDJPY short-term conditions are unchanged and remain bullish. The pair has traded higher today and in the process cleared resistance at 139.39, the Jul 14 high. The break of this level confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards the 140.00 handle. On the downside, firm short-term support is seen at 136.54, the 20-day EMA. Dips would be considered corrective.

EURJPY TECHS: Is Through Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 141.49 1.236 pro of the Aug 2 - 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 140.69 High Jul 22
• RES 2: 140.26 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 140.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 139.59 @ 07:02 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 137.96 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 3: 136.02 Low Aug 25
• SUP 4: 135.52 Low Aug 24

EURJPY traded higher Wednesday. The climb resulted in the break of a key resistance at 138.98, a trendline drawn from the Jun 28 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and highlights a stronger reversal from the Aug 2 low. The break opens 140.26, 2.0% 10-dma envelope. Further out, potential is seen for a climb towards 142.32, the Jul 21 high. Initial support is seen at 137.7.96, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 0.7137 High Aug 11
• RES 3: 0.7040 High Aug 16
• RES 2: 0.7009 High Aug 26 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6927 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6832 @ 08:13 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 0.6789 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 11 upleg
• SUP 2: 0.6719 Low Jul 15
• SUP 3: 0.6682 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

A bearish threat in AUDUSD remains present and the pair has traded lower again today. The break of Monday’s low strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the bear leg that started Aug 11. Sights are on 0.6789, a Fibonacci retracement where a break would highlight potential for a move towards 0.6682, the Jul 14 low and a key support. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.7009, Aug 26 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
• RES 3: 1.3271 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3175 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3160 @ 08:17 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 1.3063/1.2965 High Aug 23 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2895 Low Aug 25 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2828 Low Aug 17
• SUP 4: 1.2770 Low Aug 15

USDCAD continues to head north and is again firmer today. This reinforces a bull theme and confirms an extension of recent gains. This week’s move higher has exposed 1.3224, a key resistance and the Jul 14 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up, highlighting a broader uptrend. Initial firm support is at 1.2895. A break would alter the picture. Initial support lies at .3063, the Aug 23 high and a recent breakout level.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Bears Still In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 154.47 High Aug 18
• RES 3: 153.66 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 152.67 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 149.32/151.42 High Aug 30 / High Aug 25
• PRICE: 147.38 @ 05:10 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 146.50 Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 145.14 Low Jun 29
• SUP 3: 144.72 Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 143.05 Low Jun 121

Bund futures remain in bear mode and the contract continues to weaken. Price is through 147.94, 61.8% of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 bull leg. The break reinforces bearish conditions and sets the scene for a move towards 146.50 next, the Jun 30 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 151.42, Aug 25 high. A break of this level is required to ease the current bearish threat.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Bearish Outlook Remains Intact

• RES 4: 126.930 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 126.070 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 125.506 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 123.980/124.930 High Aug 30 / High Aug 25
• PRICE: 122.860 @ 05:06 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 122.750 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 122.022 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 rally
• SUP 3: 120.990 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 119.940 Low Jun 16

Bobl futures remain bearish and the contract continues to trade lower. Price has cleared the 61.8% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 rally, at 123.309. This has strengthened bearish conditions and a continuation of the bear leg is likely. The focus is on 122.022 next, the 76.4% retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 124.930, the Aug 25 high. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 109.830 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 109.446 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 109.330 High Aug 25 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 108.965 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 108.545 @ 05:19 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 108.425 Low Jun 28
• SUP 2: 108.336 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg
• SUP 3: 108.105 Low Jun 22
• SUP 4: 108.025 Low Jun 21

Schatz futures have traded lower once again today, maintaining the current downward path. The contract remains vulnerable and further weakness is likely. The 50-day EMA has recently been cleared and this has resulted in the breach of a number of Fibonacci retracement levels as the downtrend extends. The focus is on 108.425, the Jun 28 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 109.330, the Aug 25 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Impulsive Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: 113.32 High Aug 18
• RES 3: 112.43 High Aug 22
• RES 2: 111.54 High Aug 23
• RES 1: 109.47/110.85 High Aug 31 / 26 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 107.93 @ Close Aug 31
• SUP 1: 107.25 Low Aug 31
• SUP 2: 107.00 round number support
• SUP 3: 106.54 1.236 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.03 1.382 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures remain vulnerable and the bearish impulsive run that started early August, continued Wednesday. The breach of support on Tuesday at 108.94, the Aug 24 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and yesterday’s move lower delivered a print below the 108.00 handle. Attention is on 107.00 next and 106.54 further out. The latter is a Fibonacci extension. Firm short-term resistance has been defined at 110.85, the Aug 26 high.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Breaches Key Support

• RES 4: 127.15 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 126.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 124.31 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 121.28/123.16 High Aug 30/25 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 119.51 @ Close Aug 31
• SUP 1: 118.92 Low Aug 31
• SUP 2: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 3: 117.88 Low Jun 17
• SUP 4: 115.72 Low Jun 16

Bearish conditions in BTP futures remain intact - this week's fresh lows reinforce the current bear cycle. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs and confirmed a break of trendline support drawn from the Jun 14 low. Yesterday’s move through support at 119.57, the Jul 21 low, reinforces the current bearish theme. The focus is on 118.60, the Jun 22 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 123.16, Aug 25 high.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Southbound

• RES 4: 120-02+ High Aug 15
• RES 3: 119-18 High Aug 17
• RES 2: 118-23 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 118-00/13 High Aug 26 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117-01 @ 15:29 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 116-22+ Low Aug 30
• SUP 2: 116-08 Low Jun 28
• SUP 3: 116-01+ 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Aug 2 bull run
• SUP 4: 114-26 Low Jun 16

A bearish Treasuries theme remains intact and the contract printed a lower low Wednesday. The recent breach of 117-11+, Jul 21 low, strengthened the case for bears. Potential is seen for weakness towards 116-08 next, the Jun 28 low. Further out, attention is on 116-01+, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 118-00, Friday’s high, ahead of the 50-day EMA at 118-23.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 3822/40.00 High Aug 17 / High Jun 6 and key resistance zone
• RES 3: 3782.00 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 3705.00 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 3629.00 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 3487.00@ 05:30 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 3456.00 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally
• SUP 2: 3386.00 Low Jul 15
• SUP 3: 3362.00 Low Jul 14
• SUP 4: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and a key bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bearish and yesterday’s move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The contract has cleared 3526.00, 61.8% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally. This sets the scene for a move towards 3456.00 next, the 76.4% retracement. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and expose key support at 3343.00, the Jul 5 low. On the upside, a firm short-term resistance has been defined at 3629.00.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Bear Trend Extension

• RES 4: 4327.50 High Aug 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4288.00 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 4217.25 High Aug 26 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4077.44 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3934.25 @ 07:55 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 3902.01 61.8% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg
• SUP 2: 3834.00 Low Jul 19
• SUP 3: 3801.49 76.4% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg
• SUP 4: 3723.75 Low Jul 14

S&P E-Minis are trading lower again today, marking an extension of the current bear cycle. This reinforces the bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation with attention on 3902.01 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions as the contract moves further away from the 50–day EMA. Initial firm resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 4077.44.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X2) Bearish Reversal

• RES 4: $110.17 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $107.30 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $103.86 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 1: $98.67 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $95.07 @ 07:00 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: $94.40 - Low Aug 31
• SUP 2: $90.95 - Low Aug 17
• SUP 3: $89.06 - Low Jul 14 and the key bear trigger
• SUP 4: $87.50 - Low Mar 15

Brent futures reversed course Wednesday and the sharp pullback undermines a recent bullish theme. A continuation lower would expose the next important support at $90.95, the Aug 17 low, ahead of $89.06, the Jul 14 low and a key bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a broader bear cycle. Key resistance is at $103.86, the Jul 29 high, where a break is needed to reinstate a bull theme.

WTI TECHS: (V2) Bearish Engulfing Candle Still In Play

• RES 4: $108.07 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $105.00 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $99.75 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 1: $94.22/97.66 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 30
• PRICE: $88.98 @ 07:05 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: $88.27 - Low Aug 31
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Aug 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $84.10/00 - Low Mar 15 / Round number support
• SUP 4: $81.88 - Low Feb 25

WTI futures reversed course Tuesday and the sharp sell-off threatens the recent bullish theme. A strong reversal pattern has appeared on the daily chart - a bearish engulfing candle on Tuesday. If correct, this pattern suggests potential for a strong sell-off near-term that exposes key support at $85.37, the Aug 16 low. Firm resistance has been defined at $97.66, Tuesday’s high, where a break is required to resume bullish activity.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and bull trigger
• RES 3: $1783.2 - High Aug 16
• RES 2: $1769.2 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1727.8/1765.5 - Low Aug 22 / High Aug 25
• PRICE: $1705.0 @ 07:22 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: $1700.0 - Round number support
• SUP 2: $1681.0 - Low Jul 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021
• SUP 4: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5 2020

Gold remains in a clear short-term downtrend and this week’s extension reinforces a bearish condition. Support at $1727.8, Aug 22 low has been breached to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. The break lower paves the way for weakness towards $1700.0 next ahead of $1681.0, the Jul 21 low and a key bear trigger. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $1765.53, high Aug 25.

SILVER TECHS: Key Support Cleared

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $20.876 - High Aug 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $19.261/853- 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: $18.544 - High Aug 31
• PRICE: $17.799 @ 08:28 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: $17.649 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 3: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing
• SUP 4: $15.998 - 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull leg

The Silver outlook remains bearish. This week’s sell-off confirms a resumption of the bear leg that started Aug 15 - the metal has cleared support at $18.146, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger. The break lower also maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $16.955 next, the Jun 15 2020 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $18.544, yesterday’s high.