MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Extends Bounce, But Bear Threat Remains Present

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Extends Bounce, But Bear Threat Remains Present

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. Note too that price action continues to highlight the fact that corrections remain shallow. This is an important bullish signal, reflecting positive market sentiment. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this continues to highlight positive market sentiment.
• A bullish condition in GBPUSD remains intact and last week’s move lower appears to be a correction - for now. Initial support lies at 1.2726, the 20-day EMA with the 50-day average at 1.2682. A clear break of this support zone would threaten the bullish theme. USDJPY is trading higher today as the pair extends the bounce from 146.49, the Mar 8 / 11 low. The recovery appears to be a correction and a bear threat remains present following the recent sharp sell-off. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a move towards 145.90. AUDUSD remains below its recent highs. The latest pullback appears to be a correction. The pair has traded through support around the 50-day EMA - at 0.6571. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards the next key support at 0.6478.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The yellow metal recently cleared $2135.4, the Dec 4 high, to deliver a fresh all-time cycle high. The break reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for $2206.6 next. WTI futures traded higher last week and this resulted in a break of resistance at $80.85, the Mar 1 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since mid-December last year. Sights are on $81.70 next.
• Bund futures traded lower last week and remain soft. The move lower appears to be a correction, however, a continuation lower would expose key support and the bear trigger at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Gilt futures remain in a bull-mode position, however, last week’s move lower does suggest scope for a deeper retracement. A continuation of the latest sell-off would open 97.67, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would expose the key support and bear trigger at 96.83.

EURUSD TECHS: Support Lies At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1084 High Dec 29
• RES 3: 1.1034 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 14 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• RES 1: 1.055/981 High Mar 14 / 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0887 @ 05:43 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 1.0858 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0796 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 1.0762/0695 Low Feb 20 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0656 Low Nov 10

A bull theme in EURUSD remains intact and last week’s move lower is considered corrective - for now. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.0858. A clear break of this average would threaten the bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 1.0796, the Feb 29 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains and a break of 1.0981, the Mar 8 high, would resume the uptrend and open 1.0998, the Jan 5 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Short-Term Support Zone Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19 2023
• RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27 2023
• RES 2: 1.2946 2.00 projection of the Feb 14 - 22 - Mar 1 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2823/2894 High Mar 14 / 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2734 @ 05:56 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 1.2726 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2682 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2600 Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger

A bullish condition in GBPUSD remains intact and last week’s move lower appears to be a correction - for now. Initial support lies at 1.2726, the 20-day EMA with the 50-day average at 1.2682. A clear break of this support zone would threaten the bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance is at 1.2894, the Mar 8 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and open 1.2946, a Fibonacci projection.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8593 High Jan 19
• RES 1: 0.8578 High Feb 20 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.8550 @ 06:19 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 0.8504 Low Mar 08
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

The broader trend direction in EURGBP is unchanged and remains down. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bear cycle and sights are on key support at 0.8493, the Aug 23 low. Clearance of this level would resume the trend and signal scope for 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, key resistance is unchanged at 0.8578, the Feb 20 high. A breach of this level would signal a range break out and a reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
• RES 3: 151.43 High Nov 16
• RES 2: 150.89 High Feb 13 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 149.33/08 Intraday high / High Mar 6
• PRICE: 149.18 @ 06:39 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 147.44 Low Mar 14
• SUP 2: 146.49 Low Mar 08 / 11
• SUP 3: 145.90 Low Feb 1 and key support
• SUP 4: 145.57 50.0% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bull cycle

USDJPY is trading higher today as the pair extends the bounce from 146.49, the Mar 8 / 11 low. The recovery appears to be a correction and a bear threat remains present following the recent sharp sell-off. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a move towards 145.90, the Feb 1 low and a key support. A continuation higher would instead signal scope for gains towards 150.08, the Mar 6 high, ahead of the 150.89 key resistance, Feb 13 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 165.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 164.30 High Nov 16 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 163.72 High Feb 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 162.96 High Mar 6
• PRICE: 162.45 @ 06:49 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 160.86/22 Trendline drawn from Dec 7 low / Low Mar 11
• SUP 2: 159.47 Low Feb 8
• SUP 3: 158.92 Low Feb 7
• SUP 4: 158.08 Low Feb 1 and a key support

EURJPY maintains a former short-term tone. Key trendline support at 160.86, remains intact. The trendline is drawn from the Dec 7 low and has recently been pierced. A clear break of the line is required to strengthen a bearish theme and signal a reversal, paving the way initially for 158.92, the Feb 7 low. The trend remains up with the trendline intact. A continuation higher would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 163.72, the Feb 26 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Through Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6748 High Jan 5
• RES 3: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 2: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.6632/68 High Mar 14 / 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6562 @ 07:31 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 0.6552 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 0.6478/6443 Low Mar 5 / Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14

AUDUSD remains below its recent highs. The latest pullback appears to be a correction. The pair has traded through support around the 50-day EMA - at 0.6571. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards the next key support at 0.6478, the Mar 5 low. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high, is required to resume the bull cycle and this would open 0.6708, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDCAD TECHS: Directional Triggers Defined

• RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3606 High Feb 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3524@ 07:56 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 1.3420 Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5

USDCAD short-term conditions remain bearish, however, a continuation of the latest recovery would undermine this theme and expose key resistance at 1.3606, Feb 28 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend that has been in place since December 27. For bears, a move below 1.3420, Mar 8 low, would instead resume bearish activity and open 1.3359, Jan 31 low. 1.3606 and 1.3420 are seen as important directional triggers.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Bear Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 135.44 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 134.78 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 bear cycle
• RES 2: 134.48 High Feb 5
• RES 1: 133.16/134.15 50-day EMA / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 132.02 @ 05:24 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 131.71 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 131.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 129.88 Bear channel base drawn from the Dec 27 high

Bund futures traded lower last week and remain soft. The move lower appears to be a correction, however, a continuation lower would expose key support and the bear trigger at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 133.16, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would be seen as a bullish development.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Watching Support

• RES 4: 119.050 High Feb 8
• RES 2: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 119.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 118.079 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.570 @ 05:26 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 117.410 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 117.200 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)

Bobl futures are trading closer to last week’s lows. A broader bearish cycle is intact and a continuation lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 117.200, Feb 29 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started early December last year. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on resistance at 118.790, the Feb 15 / Mar 8 high. A break would resume the recent bullish corrective phase.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 106.315 High Feb 8
• RES 3: 106.145 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 1: 105.805/106.010 20-day EMA / High Mar 8
• PRICE: 105.580 @ 05:44 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 105.535 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 105.490 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.430 High Feb 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.310 High Feb 26 (cont)

The downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and last week’s pullback reinforces this theme. The move lower refocuses attention on key short-term support and the bear trigger at 105.490, the Feb 29 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started in December last year. A reversal higher would open 106.010, the Mar 8 high where a break is required to resume a bullish corrective phase.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Retracement Mode

• RES 4: 101.00 Round number support
• RES 3: 100.73 1.764 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 100.50 1.618 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 1: 99.35/100.37 High Mar 14 / 12 and a key S/T resistance
• PRICE: 98.32 @ Close Mar 15
• SUP 1: 98.05 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 97.67 76.4% retracement of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally
• SUP 3: 97.42 Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: 96.83 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures remain in a bull-mode position, however, last week’s move lower does suggest scope for a deeper retracement. A continuation of the latest sell-off would open 97.67, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would expose the key support and bear trigger at 96.83, Feb 29 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 100.37, the Mar 13 high. A move through this level would confirm a resumption of the recent bull cycle.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Watching Support

• RES 4: 121.65 2.618 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 2: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.28 High Mar 14
• PRICE: 118.55 @ Close Mar 15
• SUP 1: 118.43/33 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 117.63 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support

BTP futures traded in a volatile manner last Thursday and the contract has pulled back from its recent high. A short-term bullish theme remains intact following the recovery that started on Feb 22, however, a clear break of support at the 20-day EMA - at 118.43 - would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 117.63, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 120.65, the Dec 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5074.70 1.236 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 4988.00 High Mar 14
• PRICE: 4989.00 @ 06:09 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 4859.40 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4771.00 Low Feb 22
• SUP 3: 4711.00 Low Feb 19
• SUP 4: 4626.00 Low Feb 13

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this continues to highlight positive market sentiment. Price is approaching the psychological 5000.00 handle. A break of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 4859.40, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Bullish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 5324.14 3.0% Bollinger Band
• RES 3: 5303.92 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 5300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5257.25 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 5196.25 @ 07:17 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 5163.37 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5051.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4994.25 Low Feb 13
• SUP 4: 4921.00 Low Jan 31

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. Note too that price action continues to highlight the fact that corrections remain shallow. This is an important bullish signal, reflecting positive market sentiment. Support to watch is 5163.37 the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would open 5051.40, the 50-day EMA. Sights are on 5300.00 next.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $89.26 - High Sep 15 ‘23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $88.31 - High Oct 20
• RES 2: $86.52 - High Oct 27
• RES 1: $85.79 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $85.76 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: $81.43/76.41 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: $74.84 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 3: $73.22 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.80 - Low Jun 23 ‘23

Brent futures have started this week on a firm note. Price is trading higher and a bull phase remains intact. The contract has recently cleared resistance at $84.34, Mar 1 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that has started Dec 13. $85.47, 76.4% of the Sep 15 - Dec 13 bear cycle, has been pierced. Clearance of this level would open $88.31, the Oct 20 ‘23 high. On the downside, initial pivot support to watch lies at $81.43, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (J4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $85.75 - High Sep 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $85.08 - High Sep 28
• RES 2: $82.61/84.66 - High Oct 27 / 20
• RES 1: $81.70 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• PRICE: $81.46 @ 07:10 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: $77.07/71.49 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: $69.79 - Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: $68.57 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $65.41 - Low Jun 12

WTI futures traded higher last week and this resulted in a break of resistance at $80.85, the Mar 1 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since mid-December last year. Sights are on $81.70 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break of this level would open $84.66, the Oct 20 ‘23 high. On the downside, support to watch is $77.07, the 50-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $2253.6 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2230.1 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2206.6 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2195.2 - High Mar 8
• PRICE: $2148.8 @ 07:17 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: $2123.8 - Low Mar 6
• SUP 2: $2112.9/2088.5 - 20-day EMA / High Dec 28
• SUP 3: $2069.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $2016.1 - Low Feb 23

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The yellow metal recently cleared $2135.4, the Dec 4 high, to deliver a fresh all-time cycle high. The break reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for $2206.6 next, a Fibonacci projection. Short-term conditions are overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm support is at $2112.9, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 ‘22
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 2: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.448 - High Mar 15
• PRICE: $25.071@ 08:04 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: $23.873 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.428 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

A bullish condition in Silver remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The metal has traded through $24.856, 76.4% of the Dec 4 - Jan 22 bear leg. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $25.761, the Dec 4 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $23.873, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.