MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Hitting Fresh Trend Highs

Tech Focus: USD/JPY Hits Fresh Trend Highs
- USDJPY is on the move again and the pair is trading above last week's high of 109.23.
- Trend conditions are bullish and Monday's strength confirms a resumption of this uptrend.
- Attention is on 109.56, a key retracement level.
- Momentum studies remain in overbought territory however this is still not having an impact on the trend and instead, the set-up continues to reinforce the current bullish mood.
- Support is at 108.34, Mar 10 low.
- Resistance level to watch:
* RES 1: 109.56 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Jan downleg
* RES 2: 109.70 High Jun 8, 2020
* RES 3: 109.85 High Jun 5, 2020
* RES 4: 110.63 0.764 proj of Mar - Apr 2020 rally from Jan 6 low

Price Signal Summary - Equity Bulls Still In Charge

• In the FX space:
  • EURUSD, has found support at 1.1836, Tuesday's low. Gains are considered corrective however, the move above 1.1952, Feb 5 low does signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery with attention on 1.2024, the 20-day EMA. Monday's move lower though also highlights support at 1.1836, a break would resume the downtrend.
• On the commodity front, a bullish engulfing candle in Gold last week suggests a potential short-term base at $1676.9, last Monday's low. The focus is on the 20-day EMA at $1750.4. A break of $1676.9 is needed to resume the downtrend instead. Oil contracts have erased the mid-week losses and look firmer to start the week. A resumption of Brent (K1) weakness would open $65.04, the 20-day EMA. The bull trigger is at $71.38, Mar 8 high. In WTI (J1) a deeper pullback would open $61.92, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is at $67.98, Mar 8 high.
• In the FI space, BTP futures (M1) rallied at the tail-end of last week. A break of 150.69, 76.4% retracement of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off is needed to further strengthen a bullish argument. In Bunds (M1), the resistance to watch is 172.30, last week's high and in Gilts (M1), 129.27, Mar 2 high remains the key near-term resistance. A breach of these hurdles would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery.
• In the equity space, bulls managed to deliver fresh trend highs in the E-mini S&P futures last week. The bull trigger is at last week's 3949.00. A break would open the psychological 4000.00 level.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Short-Term Pivot Resistance At 1.1990

• RES 4: 1.2113 High Mar 3
• RES 3: 1.2067 High Mar 4
• RES 2: 1.2018 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1990 High Mar 11
• PRICE: 1.1932 @ 05:51 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 1.1910 Low Mar 12
• SUP 2: 1.1839/36 200-DMA / Low Mar 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1800 Low Nov 23
• SUP 4: 1.1752 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Feb 5 - Feb 25 price swing

EURUSD stalled last week at 1.1990 and for now remains under pressure. Last week's gains however resulted in a break of 1.1952 resistance, Feb 25 high suggesting scope for an extension higher near-term. A breach of 1.1990 would signal scope for a recovery and expose the 20-day EMA at 1.2018. From a broader trend perspective, a bear trend remains intact. An extension lower and a breach of 1.1836, Mar 9 low would resume this downtrend.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 1.4205 Bull channel top drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low
• RES 3: 1.4182 High Feb 25
• RES 2: 1.4062 61.8% retracement of the Feb 24 - Mar 5 low
• RES 1: 1.4017 High Mar 4 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.3911 @ 05:54 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 1.3779/88 Low Mar 8 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3759 Bull channel drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low
• SUP 3: 1.3663 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Feb 4

Friday's sell-off in GBPUSD suggests the end of the recent corrective bounce. The short-term outlook remains bearish following the sell-off between Feb 24 - Mar 5. An extension lower would open 1.3779, Mar 5 low ahead of a key bull channel support at 1.3759. The channel is drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low and a break would represent an important short-term reversal. Firm resistance is 1.4017, Mar 4 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Trend Conditions Hold

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Feb 9
• RES 3: 0.8749 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.8668/8731 High Mar 3 / High Feb 26 and the S/T bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8627 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 0.8580 @ 06:11 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 0.8548 Low Mar 11
• SUP 2: 0.8541 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8492 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 0.8432 2.0% 10-dma Envelope

EURGBP is still trading sideways. The outlook remains bearish with the cross trading closer to recent lows. Technical signals continue to highlight a bearish condition and attention is on 0.8541, Feb 24 low. A break of this support would resume the downtrend. On the upside, firm short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8731, Feb 26 high. A break would allow for a stronger corrective bounce and open 0.8749, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Trend Highs

• RES 4: 110.63 0.764 proj of Mar - Apr 2020 rally from Jan 6 low
• RES 3: 109.85 High Jun 5, 2020
• RES 2: 109.70 High Jun 8, 2020
• RES 1: 109.56 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Jan downleg
• PRICE: 109.32 @ 06:23 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 108.34 Low Mar 110
• SUP 2: 107.82 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 4: 106.68 Low Mar 2 and 3

USDJPY is on the move again and the pair is trading above last week's high of 109.23. Trend conditions are bullish and today's break confirms a resumption of this uptrend. Attention is on 109.56, a key retracement level. Momentum studies remain in overbought territory however this is still not having an impact on the trend and instead, the set-up continues to reinforce the current bullish mood. Support is at 108.34, Mar 10 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Still Climbing

• RES 4: 132.06 76.4% of the Mar 2018 - May 2020 downtrend
• RES 3: 131.58 High Oct 4 2018
• RES 2: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 130.49 Intraday high
• PRICE: 130.40 @ 06:33 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 129.23 Low Mar 11
• SUP 2: 128.78 Low Mar 8 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 2
• SUP 4: 127.65 50-day EMA

EURJPY is trading higher. Last week the cross breached 129.98, the bull trigger and the Feb 25 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and sets the scene for a climb towards 131.22, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average conditions also point north, reinforcing underlying bullish conditions. On the downside, support has been defined at 128.78, Mar 8 low. A break of this level is required to alter the picture.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Below Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7883 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 0.7838 High Mar 2 and 3 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.7800 High Mar 12
• PRICE: 0.7728 @ 06:44 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 0.7709 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.7621 Low Mar 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.7583/64 Low Feb 5 / Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 0.7511 3.0% 10-dma envelope

Recent AUDUSD gains stalled last week at 0.7800. The broader outlook remains bearish following the sharp sell-off between Feb 29 - Mar 9. Furthermore, the breach on May 5 of 0.7693, Feb 26 low reinforces the current S/T bearish theme, signalling scope for weakness towards 0.7564, Feb 2 low. Firm short-term resistance has been defined at 0.7838, high Mar 2 and 3. A break would alter the picture, allowing for a stronger recovery.

USDCAD TECHS: Probes Key Support

• RES 4: 1.2763 High Feb 12
• RES 3: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 1.2625 High Mar 11
• PRICE: 1.2479 @ 06:57 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 1.2455 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2451 Low Feb 16, 2018
• SUP 3: 1.2367 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2278 Trendline Drawn From May 2015 Low

USDCAD maintains a softer tone. The pair has probed key support at 1.2468, Feb 25 low and the bear trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the underlying downtrend and pave the way for weakness towards 1.2400 and below. Moving average conditions remain in a bear mode reinforcing current conditions. Key trend resistance has been defined at 1.2749, Feb 26 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Shooting Star Candle Still In Play

• RES 4: 173.46 High Dec 12
• RES 3: 172.83 Low May 5
• RES 2: 175.51 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 172.20 High Mar 11
• PRICE: 171.32 @ 05:05 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 170.72 Low Mar 5
• SUP 2: 170.37 61.8% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 3: 169.94 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 4: 169.24 Low Feb 25 and the bear trigger

Bund futures traded lower Friday extending the pullback from 172.30, Mar 11 high. The failure at 172.30 last week defines this level as a key short-term resistance, where a break is required to trigger stronger gains. While it holds, a bearish risk remains present and fresh weakness would suggest scope for a retest of 169.24, Feb 25 low. Note, the pattern on Mar 11 is a shooting star candle, reinforcing the current bearish theme.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Key Short-Term Resistance Defined

• RES 4: 135.700 High Dec 11 (cont)
• RES 3: 135.580 High Feb 11
• RES 2: 135.270 Low Feb 8
• RES 1: 135.180 High Mar 11
• PRICE: 134.980 @ 05:00 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 134.730 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 134.660 50.0% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 high
• SUP 3: 134.537 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 high
• SUP 4: 134.537 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 high

Bobl futures last week defined a key short-term resistance at 135.180 on Mar 11 where a break is required to trigger stronger gains. While this resistance holds, a bearish risk remains present and fresh weakness would suggest scope for a test of 134.730, Mar 1 low and the trigger for a move towards 134.140, Feb 26 low. On the upside, a break of 135.180 would instead open 135.270.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Remains Below Resistance

• RES 4: 112.250 High Feb 15 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.240 50-day EMA (cont)
• RES 2: 112.193 20-day EMA (cont)
• RES 1: 112.125 High Mar 1 and 2
• PRICE: 112.090 @ 05:15 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: 112.045 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 112.033 50.0% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 rally
• SUP 3: 112.011 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 rally
• SUP 4: 111.984 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 rally

The Schatz futures outlook is unchanged. The contract is consolidating and remains in a bear trend. However, the recent recovery from 111.940, Feb 26 low, means this market remains in a corrective phase, allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. Short-term resistance is at 112.125, Mar 1/2 high. A break would signal scope for stronger gains. On the downside, a pullback would suggest scope for a return to 111.940, Feb 26 low.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Bears Eyeing Support

• RES 4: 130.46 High Feb 16
• RES 3: 130.00 Round number support
• RES 2: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 1: 129.27 High Mar 2
• PRICE: 127.67 @ Close Mar 12
• SUP 1: 127.55 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 127.37 61.8% retrace of the 2018 - 2020 bullish cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 126.85 Low May 3, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures traded lower Friday reinforcing bearish conditions with the primary downtrend intact. Recent price action has defined a key short-term resistance at 129.27, Mar 2 high where a break is required to signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery. Attention though is on support at 127.55, Feb 26 low and the bear trigger. A breach would resume the downtrend and open 127.37, a Fibonacci projection. Bearish!

BTP TECHS: (M1) Trading Closer To Recent Highs

• RES 4: 151.33 1.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
• RES 3: 151.05 1.50 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
• RES 2: 150.69 76.4% retracement of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off
• RES 1: 150.39 High Mar 11
• PRICE: 149.51 @ Close Mar 12
• SUP 1: 148.95 Low Mar 11
• SUP 2: 148.05 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 147.56 Low Mar 5
• SUP 4: 146.84 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger

BTP futures rallied sharply higher last week clearing a number of resistance levels. While gains since Feb 26 may still be a correction, the strong rally last week suggests scope for an extension higher. The focus is on 150.69, 76.4% retracement of the decline between Feb 12 - 26. A breach of this level would expose the key resistance and all time high at 151.88 from Feb 12. Firm support is at the Mar 11 low of 148.95.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Bull Trend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 3900.30 High May 2008
• RES 3: 3889.08 1.618 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 2: 3867.28 High Feb 20, 2020
• RES 1: 3858.79 1.500 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• PRICE: 3833.36 @ Close Mar 12
• SUP 1: 3780.00 Low Mar 10
• SUP 2: 3742.53 High Feb 15 and recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 3656.21 Low Mar 5 and the key near-term support
• SUP 4: 3622.24 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 bullish conditions remain intact. The break on Mar 8 above former resistance at 3742.53, Feb 15 high confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend and bulls haven't looked back. This maintains the underlying sequence of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing bullish conditions. The focus is on 3867.28 next, the Feb 20, 2020 high. Firm support is seen at 3742.53. Key trend support lies at 3622.24, Feb 26 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K1) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: $71.95 - High Sep 16, 2019
• RES 3: $71.75 - High Jan 8, 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: $71.38 - High Mar 5
• RES 1: $70.03 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $69.67@ 06:54 Mar 15
• SUP 1: $66.50 - Low Mar 10
• SUP 2: $65.43 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $62.38 - Low Mar 2 and 3
• SUP 4: $62.29 - Trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low

Brent crude futures remain in an uptrend however last week's pullback between Mar 8 - 10 suggests the contract has entered a corrective cycle. The trend condition has been overbought for some time and an extension lower would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Attention is on the 20-day EMA at $65.43. A breach of the average would open $62.38, Mar 2 and 3 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $71.38, the Mar 5 high.

WTI TECHS: (J1) Bearish Risk Remains Present

• RES 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $69.66 - High Oct 23, 2018 (cont)
• RES 2: $67.98 - High Mar and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $66.40 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $66.03 @ 07:00 Mar 15
• SUP 1: $63.13 - Low Mar 10
• SUP 2: $62.28 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $59.40 - Trendline support drawn off the Nov 2 low
• SUP 4: $59.24 - Low Mar 3

WTI futures remain in an uptrend however trend conditions appear to have entered a corrective cycle. This follows the pullback last week between Mar 8 - 10. The trend condition has been overbought for some time and a correction would allow this overbought set-up to unwind. Scope is seen for a move towards the 20-day EMA at $62.28. A breach of the average would expose $59.24, Mar 3 low. Key resistance is at $67.98.

GOLD TECHS: Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 3: $1760.7/75.9 - Low Feb 19 / High Feb 26
• RES 2: $1750.4 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $1740.7 - High Mar 3
• PRICE: $1724.8 @ 07:17 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5, 2020
• SUP 3: $1659.6 - Low Apr 21, 2020
• SUP 4: $1640.9 - Low Apr 8, 2020

Gold remains in a clear downtrend however price action on Mar 9 suggests the yellow metal may have found a base. In pattern terms on this day, a bullish engulfing candle has been confirmed . If correct, it signals scope for a S/T correction that would allow the current oversold momentum reading to unwind. A climb would open the 20-day EMA at $1748.1. Key support is at $1676.9, Mar 8 low low. A break wouldresume the downtrend instead.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Risk

• RES 4: $28.328 - High Feb 23 and key resistance
• RES 3: $27.595 - High Feb 26
• RES 2: $27.081 - High Mar 1 and firm near-term resistance
• RES 1: $26.459 - High Mar 11
• PRICE: $25.900 @ 07:21 GMT Mar 15
• SUP 1: $24.836/700 - Low Mar 5 / Low Jan 27
• SUP 2: $24.057 - Jan 18 low and a key support
• SUP 3: $23.524 - Low Dec 7
• SUP 4: $22.591 - Low Dec 1

A bearish risk in Silver remains intact and the sell-off between Feb 23 - Mar 5 reinforces the current theme. A former key support at $25.905, Feb 4 low has been cleared and this sets the scene for a deeper pullback exposing $24.700, Jan 27 low ahead of the Jan 18 low at $24.057. On the upside, firm near-term resistance is seen at $27.081, Mar 1 high. Initial resistance is at $26.459, the Mar 11 high.