MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Primary Uptrend Extends

Price Signal Summary - USD/JPY Primary Uptrend Extends

• S&P E-Minis traded lower again Thursday, marking an extension of the current bear cycle. This reinforces the bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation, with attention on 3902.01 next, a Fibonacci retracement. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bearish and yesterday’s move lower confirms a continuation of the downtrend. The contract has cleared 3526.00, the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally.
• EURUSD traded lower Thursday highlighting its vulnerability. Price continues to trade below 1.0090, Aug 26 high and a key near-term resistance. The downtrend remains intact and moving average studies continue to highlight bearish sentiment. USDJPY continues to appreciate and yesterday's climb delivered a print above the Y140.00 handle, for the first time since 1998. This strengthens current bullish conditions and puts prices well north of former resistance at 139.39, the Jul 14 high. USDCAD rallied again Thursday, reinforcing the bull theme and confirming an extension of recent gains. Attention is on 1.3224, a key resistance and the Jul 14 high. A break would represent an important bullish development.
• Gold remains in a clear short-term downtrend and this week’s extension reinforces a bearish condition. Support at $1727.8, Aug 22 low has been breached to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. WTI futures reversed course Tuesday and the sharp sell-off threatens the recent bullish theme. A strong reversal pattern appeared on the daily chart - a bearish engulfing candle on Tuesday.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in bear mode and the contract traded lower again Thursday. Price is through 147.94, 61.8% of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 bull leg. Gilt futures remain vulnerable and the bearish impulsive run that started early August, continued Thursday. The breach of support on Tuesday at 108.94, the Aug 24 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.0268 High Aug 15
• RES 3: 1.0202 Channel top drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 2: 1.0193 High Aug 18
• RES 1: 1.0090 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.9965 @ 05:56 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 0.9911/9883 Low Sep 1 / 1.764 proj of Jun 9-15-27 swing
• SUP 2: 0.9800 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9663 Channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high

EURUSD traded lower Thursday highlighting its vulnerability. Price continues to trade below 1.0090, Aug 26 high and a key near-term resistance. The downtrend remains intact and moving average studies continue to highlight bearish sentiment. Recent weakness resulted in breach of former key support at 0.9952, Jul 14 low. This confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on 0.9883 next, a Fibonacci projection.

GBPUSD TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Down

• RES 4: 1.2020 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2004 Low Aug 5
• RES 2: 1.1848/1901 20-day EMA / High Aug 26 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1624/1760 High Sep 1 / Low Jul 14 and recent breakout lvl
• PRICE: 1.1553 @ 06:04 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 1.1495 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.1447 Low Mar 23 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1412 Low Mar 20 2020 and a major support
• SUP 4: 1.1324 1.50 proj of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing

The current downtrend in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair traded lower again Thursday, extending this week’s slide. The recent breach of support at 1.1718, Aug 23 low, confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend. Note that moving average studies are in a clear bear mode position too, highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on 1.1495 next, a Fibonacci projection. 1.1901, the Aug 26 high marks the first key short-term resistance.

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Rally Extends

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 0.8811 1.236 proj of the Apr 14 - Jun 15 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8721 High Jun 15 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8679/83 High Jul 1 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 0.8631 @ 06:17 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 0.8572 Low Aug 31
• SUP 2: 0.8512 High Aug 19 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 0.8499 20-day EMA
• SUP 4:0.8408 Low Aug 23

EURGBP traded higher again Thursday and a bull theme remains intact. The cross has cleared a number of short-term resistance points this week and attention is on 0.8679, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this latter level would expose the key resistance at 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and an important bull trigger. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.8572, the Wednesday’ low.

USDJPY TECHS: Best Levels Since 1998

• RES 4: 143.30 2.23 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 3: 142.08 2.00 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 2: 140.86 1.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 1: 140.67 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 140.29 @ 06:29 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 138.86/05 Low Sep 1 / Low Aug 30
• SUP 2: 136.89 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 135.41 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 133.91 Low Aug 17

USDJPY continues to appreciate and yesterday's climb delivered a print above the Y140.00 handle, for the first time since 1998. This strengthens current bullish conditions and puts prices well north of former resistance at 139.39, the Jul 14 high. The break higher this week has also confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Sights are set on 140.67 next, the top of a MA envelope. Initial firm support is seen at 136.89, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Gains

• RES 4: 141.49 1.236 pro of the Aug 2 - 10 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 140.69 High Jul 22
• RES 2: 140.50 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 140.00 High Sep 1
• PRICE: 139.92 @ 06:56 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 138.02 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 3: 136.02 Low Aug 25
• SUP 4: 135.52 Low Aug 24

EURJPY is holding on to its most recent gains. This week’s extension higher has resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Jun 28 high. The breach strengthens bullish conditions and highlights a stronger reversal from the Aug 2 low. Sights are on 140.50 next, the 2.0% 10-dma envelope. Further out, potential is seen for a climb towards 142.32, the Jul 21 high. Initial support is seen at 138.02, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.7040 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.7009 High Aug 26 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 0.6945 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.68.50/6913 High Sep 1 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6785 @ 08:18 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 0.6771 Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: 0.6719 Low Jul 15
• SUP 3: 0.6682 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair traded lower again Thursday. The extension lower this week strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the bear leg that started Aug 11. The pair has breached 0.6789, 76.4% of the Jul 14 - Aug 11 upleg. This opens 0.6682, the Jul 14 low and a key support. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.7009, Aug 26 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
• RES 3: 1.3292 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3208 High Sep 1
• PRICE: 1.3150 @ 07:59 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 1.3063/1.2983 High Aug 23 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2895 Low Aug 25 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2828 Low Aug 17
• SUP 4: 1.2770 Low Aug 15

USDCAD rallied again Thursday, reinforcing the bull theme and confirming an extension of recent gains. Attention is on 1.3224, a key resistance and the Jul 14 high. A break would represent an important bullish development. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up, highlighting a broader uptrend. Initial firm support is at 1.2895. A break would alter the picture. Initial support lies at .3063, the Aug 23 high and a recent breakout level.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 154.47 High Aug 18
• RES 3: 153.66 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 152.46 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 149.32/151.42 High Aug 30 / High Aug 25
• PRICE: 147.68 @ 05:06 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 146.50 Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 145.14 Low Jun 29
• SUP 3: 144.72 Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 143.05 Low Jun 121

Bund futures remain in bear mode and the contract traded lower again Thursday. Price is through 147.94, 61.8% of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 bull leg. The break reinforces bearish conditions and sets the scene for a move towards 146.50 next, the Jun 30 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 151.42, Aug 25 high. A break of this level is required to ease the current bearish threat.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Bearish Outlook Intact

• RES 4: 126.930 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 126.070 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 125.410 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 123.980/124.930 High Aug 30 / High Aug 25
• PRICE: 123.150 @ 05:16 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 122.610 Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: 122.022 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 rally
• SUP 3: 120.990 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 119.940 Low Jun 16

Bobl futures remain bearish and the contract continues to trade lower. Price has cleared the 61.8% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 rally, at 123.309. This has strengthened bearish conditions and a continuation of the bear leg is likely. The focus is on 122.022 next, the 76.4% retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 124.930, the Aug 25 high. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Heading South

• RES 4: 109.830 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 109.415 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 109.330 High Aug 25 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 108.965 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 108.635 @ 05:16 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 108.425 Low Jun 28
• SUP 2: 108.336 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg
• SUP 3: 108.105 Low Jun 22
• SUP 4: 108.025 Low Jun 21

Schatz futures traded lower once again Thursday, maintaining the current downward path. The contract remains vulnerable and further weakness is likely. The 50-day EMA has recently been cleared and this has resulted in the breach of a number of Fibonacci retracement levels, as the downtrend extends. The focus is on 108.425 next, the Jun 28 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 109.330, the Aug 25 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Bear Cycle Extension

• RES 4: 113.32 High Aug 18
• RES 3: 112.43 High Aug 22
• RES 2: 111.54 High Aug 23
• RES 1: 109.47/110.85 High Aug 31 / 26 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 106.95 @ Close Sep 1
• SUP 1: 106.84 Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: 106.54 1.236 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 106.03 1.382 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.62 1.50 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures remain vulnerable and the bearish impulsive run that started early August, continued Thursday. The breach of support on Tuesday at 108.94, the Aug 24 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and yesterday’s move lower delivered a print below the 107.00 handle. Attention is on 106.54 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term resistance has been defined at 110.85, the Aug 26 high.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Heading South

• RES 4: 127.15 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 125.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 124.09 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 121.28/123.16 High Aug 30/25 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 118.73 @ Close Sep 1
• SUP 1: 118.26 Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: 117.88 Low Jun 17
• SUP 3: 117.46 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Aug 11 upleg
• SUP 4: 115.72 Low Jun 16

Bearish conditions in BTP futures remain intact - this week's fresh lows reinforce the current bear cycle. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs and confirmed a break of trendline support drawn from the Jun 14 low. Wednesday’s move through support at 119.57, the Jul 21 low, reinforces the current bearish theme. The focus is on 117.46 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 123.16, Aug 25 high.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Theme Persists

• RES 4: 119-18 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 118-21 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 118-00/08+ High Aug 26 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 117-07+ High Aug 31
• PRICE: 115-31 @ 15:47 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 115-28 Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: 114-26 Low Jun 16
• SUP 3: 114-06 Low Jun 14 and a key support
• SUP 4: 114-00 Round number support

Treasuries have traded lower still Thursday, extending the current bearish theme. The recent breach of 117-11+, Jul 21 low, reinforced bearish conditions, which culminated today in a break of 116-01+, the 61.8% retracement of the Jun 14 - Aug 2 rally. A clear break here would support the case for a move back to 114-06, Jun 14 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 118-00, Aug 26 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 3822/40.00 High Aug 17 / High Jun 6 and key resistance zone
• RES 3: 3782.00 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 3705.00 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 3500.00/3629.00 Low Aug 31 / High Aug 30
• PRICE: 3489.00@ 05:34 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 3447.00 Low Aug 1
• SUP 2: 3386.00 Low Jul 15
• SUP 3: 3362.00 Low Jul 14
• SUP 4: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the key bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bearish and yesterday’s move lower confirms a continuation of the downtrend. The contract has cleared 3526.00, the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally. Yesterday’s move lower resulted in a print below 3456.00, the 76.4% retracement. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and expose key support at 3343.00, Jul 5 low. A firm short-term resistance has been defined at 3629.00.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 4327.50 High Aug 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4288.00 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 4217.25 High Aug 26 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4073.23 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3959.25 @ 06:49 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 3902.01 61.8% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg
• SUP 2: 3834.00 Low Jul 19
• SUP 3: 3801.49 76.4% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg
• SUP 4: 3723.75 Low Jul 14

S&P E-Minis traded lower again Thursday, marking an extension of the current bear cycle. This reinforces the bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation, with attention on 3902.01 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions as the contract moves further away from the 50–day EMA. Initial firm resistance is seen at this 50-day EMA which intersects at 4073.23.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X2) Bearish Reversal Extends

• RES 4: $110.17 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $107.30 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $103.86 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 1: $98.31 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $93.82 @ 06:53 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: $91.81 - Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: $90.95 - Low Aug 17
• SUP 3: $89.06 - Low Jul 14 and the key bear trigger
• SUP 4: $87.50 - Low Mar 15

Brent futures reversed course Tuesday and the sharp pullback that followed undermines a recent bullish theme. A continuation lower would expose the next important support at $90.95, the Aug 17 low, ahead of $89.06, the Jul 14 low and a key bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a broader bear cycle. Key resistance is at $103.86, the Jul 29 high, where a break is needed to reinstate a bull theme.

WTI TECHS: (V2) Bearish Engulfing Candle Exposes Key Support

• RES 4: $108.07 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $105.00 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $99.75 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 1: $93.75/97.66 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 30
• PRICE: $87.91 @ 07:01 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: $85.98 - Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Aug 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $84.10/00 - Low Mar 15 / Round number support
• SUP 4: $81.88 - Low Feb 25

WTI futures reversed course Tuesday and the sharp sell-off threatens the recent bullish theme. A strong reversal pattern appeared on the daily chart - a bearish engulfing candle on Tuesday. This pattern suggests potential for a stronger sell-off near-term that initially exposes key support at $85.37, the Aug 16 low. Firm resistance has been defined at $97.66, Tuesday’s high, where a break is required to resume bullish activity.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: $1783.2 - High Aug 16
• RES 3: $1766.3 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $1745.13/1765.5 - 20-day EMA / High Aug 25
• RES 1: $1726.6 High Aug 31
• PRICE: $1701.2 @ 07:26 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: $1681.0 - Low Jul 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021
• SUP 3: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5 2020
• SUP 4: $1657.1 - 0.764 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing

Gold remains in a clear short-term downtrend and this week’s extension reinforces a bearish condition. Support at $1727.8, Aug 22 low has been breached to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. The break lower paves the way for weakness towards $1681.0, the Jul 21 low and a key bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $1765.53, high Aug 25.

SILVER TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $20.876 - High Aug 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $19.123/773- 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: $18.544 - High Aug 31
• PRICE: $17.918 @ 08:03 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: $17.562 - Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 3: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing
• SUP 4: $15.998 - 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull leg

The Silver outlook remains bearish. This week’s sell-off confirms a resumption of the bear leg that started Aug 15 - the metal has cleared support at $18.146, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger. The break lower also maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $16.955 next, the Jun 15 2020 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $18.544, the Aug 31 high.