MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Remains in Uptrend

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Remains in Uptrend

• The trend in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish, however, the contract has traded higher this week. The 20-day EMA has been breached and the clear break suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Wednesday and as a result breached the 20-day EMA. The contract is holding onto this week’s gains and the move higher sets the scene for a stronger correction.
• EURUSD traded higher yesterday, building on the week’s gains. The pair has probed key S/T resistance at 1.1121, the Jan 28 low, a recent breakout level plus the Mar 10 high. This improves the near-term outlook and a clear break would signal potential for an extension higher near-term. USDJPY remains in an uptrend. The pair has this week cleared key resistance at 118.60/66, the Jan 3 ‘17 and Dec 15 ‘16 highs. This strengthens current bullish conditions and reinforces the significance of the recent break of 116.34/35, the Feb 10 / Jan 4 highs. USDCAD continues to weaken, extending the reversal from Tuesday’s 1.2871 high. The Mar 11 low of 1.2694 has been breached and this clear break signals potential for a deeper retracement that opens 1.2587 next, the Mar 3 low and a key near-term support.
• WTI futures have recovered from Tuesday low of $93.53. This means the 50-day EMA, at $93.89, remains intact and has also provided a firm short-term support. Gold short-term conditions remain bearish following the recent pullback from last week’s Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The broader trend condition remains bullish however and the pullback is considered corrective.
• Bund futures are consolidating but remain in a downtrend following recent weakness The contract has this week breached support at 161.50, Feb 10 low. This has strengthened the bearish theme and importantly, has confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend. Gilt futures remain in a bear cycle following this week’s move lower and extension of the pullback from the Mar 1 high of 126.81. The contract remains closer to its recent lows.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Probes Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 1.1280 Low Feb 14
• RES 3: 1.1199/1232 50-day EMA / 61.8% of Feb 10 - Mar 7 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1187 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.1137 High Mar 17
• PRICE: 1.1084 @ 06:09 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 1.1008 Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: 1.0890/06 Low Mar 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020

EURUSD traded higher yesterday, building on the week’s gains. The pair has probed key S/T resistance at 1.1121, the Jan 28 low, a recent breakout level plus the Mar 10 high. This improves the near-term outlook and a clear break would signal potential for an extension higher near-term. This would open 1.1187, the 2.0% 10-dma envelope as well as the 50-day EMA of 1.1199. A reversal lower would instead open the bear trigger at 1.0806, Mar 7 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance Seen At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3376 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3358 Low Jan 27
• RES 2: 1.3240 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3211 High Mar 17
• PRICE: 1.3169 @ 06:14 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 1.3088/3000 Low Mar 17 / Low Mar 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933/2892 Low Nov 5 2020 / 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD traded higher Thursday. The trend outlook is bearish and short-term gains are still considered corrective. A bearish theme follows the recent break of 1.3163, the Dec 12 low, that confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend. Furthermore, moving average studies remain in a bear mode, reinforcing the current condition. The bear trigger is 1.3000, Mar 15 low. Resistance to watch is at 1.3240, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 0.8553 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 0.8498/8535 High Dec 23 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8478 High Feb 7 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8458 Mar 17 High
• PRICE: 0.8418 @ 06:20 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 0.8355/17 Low Mar 14 / Low Mar 9
• SUP 2: 0.8278 Low Mar 7
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8131 Low Jun 27, 2016

EURGBP is holding onto the bulk of this week’s gains and the outlook remains bullish. The cross has recently traded above a key resistance at 0.8406, the Feb 25 high. This has strengthened the short-term bullish condition and signals scope for an extension towards the next resistance at 0.8478, the Feb 7 high. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8317, the Mar 9 low. A break would highlight a potential reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 119.38 3.382 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 119.18 3.236 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
• RES 1: 119.12 High Mar 16
• PRICE: 118.76 @ 06:28 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 117.28/116.51 Low Mar 14 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 116.35 High Jan 4
• SUP 3: 115.60 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 115.48 Low Mar 4

USDJPY remains in an uptrend. The pair has this week cleared key resistance at 118.60/66, the Jan 3 ‘17 and Dec 15 ‘16 highs. This strengthens current bullish conditions and reinforces the significance of the recent break of 116.34/35, the Feb 10 / Jan 4 highs, that confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Sights are on 119.18 next - the 3.236 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing. Initial support is seen at 117.28, Monday’s low.

EURJPY TECHS: Clears All Key Retracement Levels

• RES 4: 133.48 High Oct 20 2021
• RES 3: 133.15 High Feb 10 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 132.06 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 131.91 High Feb 16 / Mar 17 and intraday high
• PRICE: 131.76 @ 06:38 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 129.12 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 127.42 Low Mar 10
• SUP 3: 126.01 Low Mar 9
• SUP 4: 124.40 Low Mar 7 and a key support

EURJPY remains in a short-term uptrend and the cross traded higher again Thursday. All key retracement levels of the recent Feb - Mar downleg have been cleared and price remains above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Recent gains signal potential for an extension to; 131.91, the Feb 16 high and key resistance at 133.15, the Feb 10 high. Initial support is seen at 129.12, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Its Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 0.7556 High oct 28 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7532 High Nov 2, 2021
• RES 2: 0.7444 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.7441 High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.7406 @ 06:47 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 0.7264/29 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.7165 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.7095 Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: 0.7080 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 7 upleg

AUDUSD has this week defined a key short-term support at 0.7165, the Mar 15 low. The strong reversal from this low signalled a potential resumption of the uptrend that started Jan 28. Strong gains yesterday and the follow through today reinforces this set-up. Moving averages also remain in a bull mode, highlighting an uptrend. Attention is on 0.7441, the Mar 7 high and a bull trigger. Weakness below 0.7165 is needed to reinstate a bearish theme.

USDCAD TECHS: Extends This Week’s Bear Cycle

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2871/2901 High Mar 15 / High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2735 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2602 @ 06:53 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 1.2587 Low Mar 3 and a near-term bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2552 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally
• SUP 3: 1.2499 Low Jan 21
• SUP 4: 1.2454 Low Jan 19 and a key support

USDCAD continues to weaken, extending the reversal from Tuesday’s 1.2871 high. The Mar 11 low of 1.2694 has been breached and this clear break signals potential for a deeper retracement that opens 1.2587 next, the Mar 3 low and a key near-term support. From a trend perspective, moving average studies still highlight a bull cycle. Clearance of 1.2901, Mar 8 high, is required though to highlight a resumption of the uptrend.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Consolidating But Trend Remains Down

• RES 4: 165.29 High Mar 9
• RES 3: 164.43 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 163.43 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 162.73 High Mar 14
• PRICE: 160.87 @ 05:15 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 160.56 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 160.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 159.81 123.6% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 rally
• SUP 4: 159.19 Low Nov 8 2018 (cont)

Bund futures are consolidating but remain in a downtrend following recent weakness The contract has this week breached support at 161.50, Feb 10 low. This has strengthened the bearish theme and importantly, has confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 161.00 has also been cleared, opening the psychological 160.00 handle. Initial resistance is at 162.73.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Key Support Probed

• RES 4: 134.080 High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 133.390 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 132.590 High Mar 9
• RES 1: 131.557 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.450 @ 05:19 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 130.300 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 130.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 129.554 123.6% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 upleg
• SUP 4: 128.820 Low Dec 4 2015 (cont)

Bobl futures remain in the current bear cycle that started at 134.080, the Mar 7 high. Support at 132.130, the Mar 1 low and 131.726, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 rally, have recently been cleared. This suggested potential for a continuation lower. Support at 130.410, the Feb 8 low has also been probed. A clear break would strengthen bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance is at 131.557, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Trading Near Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 112.210 High Mar 7 and short-term key resistance
• RES 3: 112.015 High 8
• RES 2: 111.740 High Mar 10
• RES 1: 111.517 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 111.300 @ 05:21 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 111.205 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 111.145 Low Feb 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 111.100 Round number support
• SUP 4: 111.065 Low Jun 5 2015 (cont)

Schatz futures traded to a fresh near-term cycle low Wednesday of 111.205. It is still possible that the recent move lower is a correction although the break of support at 111.655, Mar 3 low, suggests potential for a deeper pullback. Price action has also probed support at 111.240, the Feb 23 low and a key short-term level. A clear break would suggest potential for an extension lower. Initial firm resistance is seen at 111.740.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 126.81 High Mar 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 125.85 High Mar 4
• RES 2: 124.60 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 123.52 High Mar 9 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 121.80 @ Close Mar 17
• SUP 1: 120.92 Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: 120.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 119.75 123.6% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb
• SUP 4: 118.92 138.2% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb

Gilt futures remain in a bear cycle following this week’s move lower and extension of the pullback from the Mar 1 high of 126.81. The contract remains closer to its recent lows. Price has probed key support at 121.10, Feb 6 low and a bear trigger. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend and strengthen bearish conditions. Resistance is seen at 123.52, the Mar 9 high.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 147.93 High Jan 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 146.74 High Mar 1
• RES 2: 145.06 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 141.45/43.85 20-day EMA / High Mar 10
• PRICE: 138.89@ Close Mar 17
• SUP 1: 138.99 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 138.60 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 138.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 137.52 Low May 18 2020 (cont)

BTP futures are consolidating but remain vulnerable The recent break of support at 142.51, Mar 1 low, signalled an important intraday breach that resulted in a move below 140.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 16 - Mar 1 rally. This, together with the recent follow through, suggests scope for a continuation lower and has exposed key support at 138.60, Feb 16 low and a bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 143.85, Mar 10 high.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (M2): Arrives At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4730.50 High Jan 1
• RES 3: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 4578.50 High Feb 9 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4397.99/4410.50 50-day EMA / High Mar 3 and key resistance
• PRICE: 4384.50 @ 07:00 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 4129.50/4094.25 Low Mar 15 / Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3983.25 1.00 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 9 price swing

The trend in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish, however, the contract has traded higher this week. The 20-day EMA has been breached and the clear break suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. This has also resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA at 4397.99 - a key resistance area. A clear break would strengthen the current bull cycle. On the downside, initial firm support is at 4129.50, Mar 15 low.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Eyeing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 4119.50 High Feb 21
• RES 2: 3997.70 61.8% retracement of the Jan 5 - Mar 7 downleg
• RES 1: 3961.00 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3879.50 @ 05:47 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 3640.00 Low Mar 15 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 3546.00 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 3380.00 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Wednesday and as a result breached the 20-day EMA. The contract is holding onto this week’s gains and the move higher sets the scene for a stronger correction. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 3961.00. The average represents an important resistance and if cleared, would strengthen a bullish short-term theme. Support to watch lies at 3640.00, Mar 15 low. A break would highlight a possible reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) 50-Day EMA Provides Support

• RES 4: $139.13 - High Mar 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $131.64 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $118.36 - High Mar 10
• RES 1: $113.91 - High Mar 11
• PRICE: $109.01 @ 07:07 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: $96.54/93 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: $92.75 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 3: $88.25 - Low Feb 18
• SUP 4: $86.31 - Low Feb 1

Brent futures have managed to remain above key support at the 50-day EMA that intersects at $96.54. The contract traded higher Thursday and is firmer today. A continuation higher would open resistance 113.91, the Mar 11 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. On the downside, clearance of the 50-day EMA is required to reinstate a bearish threat.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Recovers From This Week’s Lows

• RES 4: $130.50 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $126.84 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $114.88 - High Mar 10
• RES 1: $110-29 - High Mar 11
• PRICE: $104.39@ 07:45 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: $93.89/53 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: $90.06 - Low Feb 23 and a key support
• SUP 3: $87.46 - Low Feb 18
• SUP 4: $85.24 - Low Feb 3

WTI futures have recovered from Tuesday low of $93.53. This means the 50-day EMA, at $93.89, remains intact and has also provided a firm short-term support. A continuation higher would open resistance at $110.29, the Mar 11 high. A break of this level would signal scope for a stronger short-term rally. On the downside, a break of the 50-day EMA would instead reinstate the recent bearish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $2104.6 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and the all-time high
• RES 2: $2009.2/2070.4 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8
• RES 1: $1954.7 - High Mar 15
• PRICE: $1934.4 @ 07:21 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: $1895.3 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: $1891.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally

Gold short-term conditions remain bearish following the recent pullback from last week’s Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The broader trend condition remains bullish however and the pullback is considered corrective. The move lower has also allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this opens $1891.3 next, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, an initial firm S/T resistance is seen at $2009.2, the Mar 10 high.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play Despite Recent Gains

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $27.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $26.063/943 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $25.363 @ 07:59 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: $24.473 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: $24.274 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $22.863 - Low Feb 11

Silver remains in an uptrend however the recent pullback - a correction - is still in play despite recent gains and this signals potential for a deeper short-term pullback. The metal has traded below the 20-day EMA this week and attention turns to the 50-day EMA at 24.274. This EMA marks an important support. For bulls, a move above $26.00 would refocus attention on the key resistance at 26.943, the Mar 8 high.