MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Trend Signal Still Pointed Higher

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Trend Signal Still Pointed Higher

• The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact, despite weakness off highs on Thursday. Price has recently cleared 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish. A corrective cycle has resulted in a pullback from the May high. Recent weakness has seen price breach 4988.00, Jun 11 low, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement and has exposed 4846.00.
• The recent sell-off in GBPUSD is a concern for bulls and Thursday’s move down reinforces a S/T bearish threat. Key support to watch lies at 1.2674, the 50-day EMA. It has again been pierced, a clear break would undermine a recent bullish theme. The trend signal in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair has traded higher this week. A number of important short-term resistance points have been cleared. Most recently, price has breached 158.21, 76.4% of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off. AUDUSD continues to trade within its range. The recent sideways move has defined key resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high and key support at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Both levels represent key short-term directional triggers.
• Gold traded higher yesterday but remains below resistance - for now. A sharp sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a short-term bearish theme. The yellow metal has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2317.5. WTI futures have traded higher this week, extending the current bull phase. The climb has resulted in a break of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance. The clear breach of this hurdle cancels a recent bearish theme and paves the way for $82.24.
• Bund futures are unchanged and continue to trade closer to their recent highs. A bull cycle remains in play. The latest pause appears to be a flag - a bullish continuation pattern. Furthermore, recent gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 132.83. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bullish. Recent gains resulted in a break of resistance at 97.86, the Jun 4 high and 98.05, 76.4% of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle. This cancels a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29.

EURUSD TECHS: Gains Appear To Be Corrective

• RES 4: 1.0916 High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.0852 High High Jun 12
• RES 2: 1.0790 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0761 High Jun 18
• PRICE: 1.0718 @ 05:58 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 1.0668 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 1.0650 Low May 1
• SUP 3: 1.0601 Low Apr 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

The short-term trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and the latest shallow gains appear to be a correction. The recent breach of support at 1.0720, the Jun 11 low, strengthens a bearish theme and note too that 1.0675, 76.4% of the Apr 16 - Jun 4 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would open 1.0650 next, the May 1 low. Key short-term resistance is at 1.0852, the Jun 12 high. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0790, the 50-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Pierces Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2947 1.50 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2740/2860 High Jun 19 / 12
• PRICE: 1.2662 @ 06:15 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 1.2657 Low Jun 19
• SUP 2: 1.2584 Low May 15
• SUP 3: 1.2514 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jun 12 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support

The recent sell-off in GBPUSD is a concern for bulls and Thursday’s move down reinforces a S/T bearish threat. Key support to watch lies at 1.2674, the 50-day EMA. It has again been pierced, a clear break would undermine a recent bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper correction, opening 1.2584, May 15 low. For bulls, a reversal higher and a break of 1.2860, Jun 12 high, resumes the uptrend. Initial resistance is 1.2740, the Jun 19 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 0.8541 High May 31
• RES 3: 0.8532 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8514 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8477 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8460 @ 07:05 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 0.8397 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 2022

A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. The latest move down, reinforces the bear cycle and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend. Sights are on 0.8366 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8477, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 160.92 1.50 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 159.63 1.236 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 159.13 Intraday high
• PRICE: 158.92 @ 06:59 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 157.07 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 155.67 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 155.37 /154.55 Trendline drawn from Dec 28 low / Low Jun 4
• SUP 4: 153.60 Low May 16

The trend signal in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair has traded higher this week. A number of important short-term resistance points have been cleared. Most recently, price has breached 158.21, 76.4% of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off. The clear break of this price point signals scope for a move towards 160.17, the Apr 29 high and the key resistance. Initial support is 157.07, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Price Activity

• RES 4: 172.62 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 172.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 171.56 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 170. 89 High Jun 3
• PRICE: 170.39 @ 07:20 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 168.47/167.53 Trendline from the Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 167.33 Low May 16
• SUP 3: 165.64 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 164.02 Low May 3 and a pivot support

The EURJPY trend structure remains bullish and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. The cross has recovered from the Jun 14 low and this leaves key trendline support - at 168.47 - intact. The line is drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A clear breach of it would undermine a bullish theme and highlight a reversal. 170.14 resistance, Jun 13 high, has been cleared. Sights are on 170.89, Jun 3 high, ahead of the bull trigger at 171.56, Apr 29 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trading In A Range

• RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 1: 0.6714 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6662 @ 07:56 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.6558 Low May 8
• SUP 3: 0.6539 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.6497 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg

AUDUSD continues to trade within its range. The recent sideways move has defined key resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high and key support at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Both levels represent key short-term directional triggers. Clearance of 0.6714, would open 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. A break below 0.6576 would expose 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and highlight an uptrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3792 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 1.3684 @ 08:04 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 1.3675 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD has traded lower this week and has pierced the Jun 12 low of 1.3680, and 1.3676, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of these supports would signal scope for a continuation lower near-term, towards key support at 1.3590, the May 16 low. A clear break of this level would threaten a bullish theme. The trend outlook remains bullish, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the medium-term resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Flag Formation Reinforces A Bullish Theme

• RES 4: 133.94 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 133.71 High Apr 12
• RES 2: 133.42 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 133.21 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 132.33 @ 05:32 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 131.70/131.52 50- and 20-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 130.21 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 129.52 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger

Bund futures are unchanged and continue to trade closer to their recent highs. A bull cycle remains in play. The latest pause appears to be a flag - a bullish continuation pattern. Furthermore, recent gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 132.83, the May 16 high. These factors strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for a continuation higher, towards 133.42 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is 131.70, the 50-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Short-Term Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 117.640 2.236 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 117.440 High May 16 2024 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.380 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 117.160 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 116.640 @ 05:48 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 116.340/116.166 Low Jun 14 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 115.790 Low Jun 13
• SUP 3: 115.560 Low Jun 12
• SUP 4: 115.180 Low Jun 10

Bobl futures are in consolidation mode and holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. The latest move higher has resulted in a break of resistance at 116.750, the May 16 high. This confirms a stronger bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Sights are on 117.380 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 116.380, the 20-day EMA. First support lies at 116.340, the Jun 14 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Trend Signal Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 106.225 3.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 106.091 2.618 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 106.009 2.382 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 105.975 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 105.730 @ 06:08 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 105.625/105.543 Low Jun 14 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 105.310 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 105.110 Low May 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 105.000 Round number support

Schatz futures are in consolidation mode and holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. The latest rally has resulted in a break of resistance at 105.460, the Jun 4 / 5 high. This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 106.009 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term support has been defined at 105.543, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U4) Bullish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 99.25 1.236 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 98.89/99.05 High May 16 a key resistance / High Jun 14
• PRICE: 98.70 @ Close Jun 20
• SUP 1: 98.21 Low Jun 14 / 17
• SUP 2: 97.76/96.84 20-day EMA / Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 95.58 Low May 31

The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bullish. Recent gains resulted in a break of resistance at 97.86, the Jun 4 high and 98.05, 76.4% of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle. This cancels a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29. Resistance at 98.89, the May 16 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would reinforce bullish conditions. Initial firm support is 97.66, 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (U4) Resistance Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.62 High Jun 5 and key resistance
• RES 1: 117.01 High Jun 18
• PRICE: 116.33 @ Close Jun 20
• SUP 1: 115.28/114.35 Low Jun 12 / 11
• SUP 2: 114.02 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 113.60 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.77 61.8% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 2023 rally (cont)

BTP futures have traded in a volatile manner recently. The latest bear reversal from the Jun 5 high, confirmed the end of the corrective phase between May 29 - Jun 5. This resulted in a break of key support at 115.54, Apr 25 low, highlighting a resumption of the downtrend. However, price has rebounded from the Jun 11 low of 114.35. Initial key resistance is 117.62, Jun 5 high. A break would be bullish. First resistance is 117.01, Tuesday’s high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 5132.00 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 5092.00 High Jun 12
• RES 1: 5005.70 50-day EMA
• PRICE:4992.00 @ 06:36 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 4860.00 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 4846.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: 4800.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4785.40 2.236 proj of the May 16 - Jun 4 - 6 price swing

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish. A corrective cycle has resulted in a pullback from the May high. Recent weakness has seen price breach 4988.00, Jun 11 low, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement and has exposed 4846.00, Apr 19 low and a key support. The recovery from the Jun 14 low is an early bullish signal. Resistance to watch is at 5092.00, Jun 12 high. A break would expose key resistance at 5151.00.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 5622.69 2.764 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5594.66 2.618 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5588.00 High Jun 20
• PRICE: 5550.25 @ 07:22 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: 5443.53/5353.46 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support
• SUP 3: 5213.25 Low May 6
• SUP 4: 5155.75 Low May 3

The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact, despite weakness off highs on Thursday. Price has recently cleared 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5594.66 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support lies at 5443.73, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q4) Bull-Mode Condition

• RES 4: $91.11 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.22 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $87.04 -76.4% retracement of the Apr 12 - Jun 5 bear leg
• RES 1: $85.96 - High Jun 20
• PRICE: $85.66 @ 07:04 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: $82.84 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $79.32/76.76 - Low Jun 7 / 4
• SUP 3: $75.63 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.47 - Low Dec 13 and a key support

Brent futures remain in a bull-mode condition and have traded higher this week.. The climb has resulted in a break of key S/T resistance at $84.72, the May 29 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a bullish continuation near-term. Sights are on $87.04, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch is $82.84, the 20-day EMA. A break would be seen as an early reversal signal.

WTI TECHS: (Q4) Heading North

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $85.24 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $82.24 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg
• RES 1: $81.52 - High Jun 20
• PRICE: $81.36 @ 07:18 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: $78.08 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $74.94/72.44 - Low Jun 10 / 4
• SUP 3: $71.05 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $69.22 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support

WTI futures have traded higher this week, extending the current bull phase. The climb has resulted in a break of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance. The clear breach of this hurdle cancels a recent bearish theme and paves the way for $82.24, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support to watch is $78.08, the 20-day EMA. A break would be seen as an early potential reversal signal.

GOLD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $2387.8 - High Jun 7
• PRICE: $2361.2 @ 07:24 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

Gold traded higher yesterday but remains below resistance - for now. A sharp sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a short-term bearish theme. The yellow metal has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2317.5. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the reversal from May 20 and open $2277.4, the May 3 low. Clearance of this price point would also strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is $2387.8, the Jun 7 high.

SILVER TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $30.367 @ 08:10 BST Jun 21
• SUP 1: $28.978/659 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver is trading above its recent lows. The metal traded lower Jun 7 and cleared support at $29.381, the Jun 4 low. That break signals scope for a deeper retracement. Note that a bearish corrective cycle is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $28.978. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme. A reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $32.518, May 20 high.