MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Rockets Higher, GBP/USD Bearish Threat Resumes

Price Signal Summary – USD Rockets Higher, GBP/USD Bearish Threat Resumes

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. The recent move down highlights a short-term corrective cycle and last week's sell-off plus yesterday’s move lower, reinforces this condition. The primary uptrend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. The move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind.
• GBPUSD reversed lower Wednesday and this reinstates a short-term bearish threat. Key support to watch lies at 1.2519, the Feb 5 low. A clear break of this level would highlight an important bearish development and a stronger reversal. USDJPY traded sharply higher Wednesday. The climb takes the pair through key resistance at 151.91/95, the Nov 13 ‘23 and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. The break of this resistance zone resumes the primary uptrend and sights are on 153.39 next, a Fibonacci projection. USDCAD rallied Wednesday and the break higher confirms a resumption of the current uptrend. The move higher also confirms a clear break of resistance and congestion at 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 high. This paves the way for gains towards 1.3729.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal is trading closer to this week’s highs. The latest climb maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition. A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s rally reinforced current conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has traded through $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high.
• A bear threat in Bund futures remains present. Yesterday’s resumption of weakness strengthens a bearish theme and attention is on key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late last year and open 130.60. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the contract traded lower Wednesday, reinforcing current conditions. Key short-term support at 98.05, the Mar 15 low, has been cleared. The clear break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension towards 97.67.

EURUSD TECHS: Reversal Exposes Key Support

• RES 4: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.0943 High Mar 21
• RES 2: 1.0921 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 2 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0828/85 20-day EMA / High Apr 09
• PRICE: 1.0745 @ 05:38 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 1.0725 Low Apr 2
• SUP 2: 1.0695 Low Feb 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0656 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 1.0611 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull rally

EURUSD traded sharply lower yesterday and cleared initial support at 1.0791, the Apr 5 low. The break lower reinstates a short-term bearish threat and signals the end of the recent recovery between Apr 2 - 9. The move lower has exposed 1.0725, the Apr 2 low, ahead of the key support at 1.0695, the Feb 14 low and bear trigger. Initial key resistance has been defined at 1.0885, Tuesday's high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2865 High Mar 11
• RES 2: 1.2803 High Mar 21
• RES 1: 1.2646/2709 20-day EMA / High Apr 09
• PRICE: 1.2546 @ 05:56 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 1.2520/19 Low Apr 10 / Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2465 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.2446 Low Nov 20 ‘23
• SUP 4: 1.2364 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg

GBPUSD reversed lower Wednesday and this reinstates a short-term bearish threat. Key support to watch lies at 1.2519, the Feb 5 low. A clear break of this level would highlight an important bearish development and a stronger reversal. This would open 1.2465, 50.0% of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 1.2709, the Apr 10 high. A break of this level would reinstate a bullish theme.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8678 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8607 23.6% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8586/8602 High Apr 05 / High Mar 22
• PRICE: 0.8564 @ 06:20 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 0.8530/8504 Low Mar 21 / 29 and Low Mar 8
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

A short-term bull cycle in EURGBP persists and the recent pullback appears to be a minor correction. Sights are on key resistance at 0.8602, the Mar 22 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the recovery that started Feb 14 and open 0.8678, a Fibonacci retracement point. Support to watch lies at 0.8530, Mar 21 / 29 low. A break would instead be seen as a bearish development and expose the bear trigger at 0.8493, Aug 23 ‘23 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 154.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 3: 153.98 1.50 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 2: 153.39 1.382 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 1: 153.24 High Apr 10
• PRICE: 152.93 @ 06:37 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 151.21/150.00 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 149.03 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 147.44 Low Mar 14
• SUP 4: 146.49 Low Mar 08 / 11 and key support

USDJPY traded sharply higher Wednesday. The climb takes the pair through key resistance at 151.91/95, the Nov 13 ‘23 and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. The break of this resistance zone resumes the primary uptrend and sights are on 153.39 next, a Fibonacci projection. The break also confirms a flag formation on the daily chart, a bullish chart pattern. Initial firm support lies at 151.21, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 167.24 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 165.35 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 165.17 High Apr 09
• PRICE: 164.32 @ 06:53 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 163.73/162.92 20-day EMA / Trendline drawn from Dec 7 low
• SUP 2: 162.60 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 161.07 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 160.22 Low Mar 11

The trend condition in EURJPY remains bullish and the cross is trading above a key short-term support at 162.92 marking the trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A clear break of this line is required to highlight a short-term reversal. This would also highlight a break of the 50-day EMA, at 162.60. For bulls, key resistance is at 165.35, the Mar 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Reversal Exposes Support

• RES 4: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 3: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
• RES 2: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6561/6644 50-day EMA / High Apr 9
• PRICE: 0.6524 @ 07:20 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 0.6499 Low Apr 10
• SUP 2: 0.6478 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 0.6443 Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg

A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD Wednesday signals the end of the recent bull phase and reinstates a bearish threat. A continuation lower would signal scope for a test of support at 0.6478, the Mar 5 low. Clearance of this level would expose the bear trigger at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low. Key resistance is unchanged at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high. A reversal higher and a break of this level would be a bullish development.

USDCAD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 1.3855 High Nov 10 2023
• RES 3: 1.3765 High Nov 22 2023
• RES 2: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3703 High Apr 10
• PRICE: 1.3691 @ 07:48 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 1.3564 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3478/20 Low Apr 4 / Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 1.3343 Low Jan 12

USDCAD rallied Wednesday and the break higher confirms a resumption of the current uptrend. The move higher also confirms a clear break of resistance and congestion at 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 high. This paves the way for gains towards 1.3729, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. Initial firm support lies at 1.3478, the Apr 4 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 134.48 High Feb 5
• RES 3: 134.15 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 133.48/69 High Mar 27 / 12
• RES 1: 132.80 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 131.66 @ 05:17 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 131.53 Low Apr 10
• SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 130.60 1.50 proj of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 - Mar 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

A bear threat in Bund futures remains present. Yesterday’s resumption of weakness strengthens a bearish theme and attention is on key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late last year and open 130.60, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a break of 133.48, Mar 27 high, is needed to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial resistance is 132.80, 50-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 119.050 High Feb 8
• RES 2: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.460 High Mar 12
• RES 1: 117.856/118.310 20-day EMA / High Mar 27
• PRICE: 117.360 @ 05:30 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 117.220 Low Apr 10
• SUP 2: 117.200 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)

Bobl futures traded lower Wednesday and a bearish threat remains present. Key support to watch lies at 117.200, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend that started early December last year. For bulls, a break of 118.310, the Mar 27 high, would instead highlight a short-term reversal and expose key resistance at 118.790, the Feb 15 / Mar 8 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Clears Support

• RES 4: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 3: 106.010 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 105.790/875 High Mar 25 / 12
• RES 1: 105.650 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 105.440 @ 05:49 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 105.385 Low Apr 10
• SUP 2: 105.310 High Feb 26 (cont)
• SUP 3: 105.295 1.236 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.106 1.382 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing

A downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and yesterday’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The break of support at 105.490, the Feb 29 / Apr 9 low and bear trigger, confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. The focus is on 105.295, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 105.650, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 100.73 1.764 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 3: 100.50 1.618 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 100.05/100.37 High Mar 22 / 12 and a key S/T resistance
• RES 1: 99.37 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 97.90 @ Close Apr 10
• SUP 1: 97.67 76.4% retracement of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally
• SUP 2: 97.42 Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: 97.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 96.83 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger

A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the contract traded lower Wednesday, reinforcing current conditions. Key short-term support at 98.05, the Mar 15 low, has been cleared. The clear break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension towards 97.67, a Fibonacci retracement and yesterday’s low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 100.37, Mar 12 high. Initial resistance is 99.37, the Apr 4 high.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Recent Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 119.55/120.28 High Mar 27 / 14
• RES 1: 119.10 High Apr 10
• PRICE: 118.09 @ Close Apr 10
• SUP 1: 117.10 Low Apr 3
• SUP 2: 116.52 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support

Price action last week in BTP futures resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and a breach of 118.33, the Mar 15 low. The break highlights a bearish threat and recent gains appear to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would open 116.52, the Feb 29 low and 116.15, the Feb 22 low and the key support. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 119.55, the Mar 27 high, would instead reinstate a bull cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 5170.50 1.50 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5008.00/5079.00 High Apr 8 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4951.00 @ 06:14 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 4901.00 Low Apr 10
• SUP 2: 4848.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4826.00 Low Mar 5
• SUP 4: 4800.00 Round number support

The primary uptrend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. The move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The break of support around the 20-day EMA suggests potential for a deeper retracement. The next support lies at 4848.70, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 5079.00, Apr 2 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Corrective Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 5434.54 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 17 low
• RES 3: 5428.25 1.00 proj of the Oct 27 - Dec 28 - May 1 price swing
• RES 2: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5308.50/33.50 High Apr 4 / 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 5205.75 @ 07:05 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: 5176.50 Low APr 10
• SUP 2: 5155.37 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 5100.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 5018.00 Low Feb 21

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. The recent move down highlights a short-term corrective cycle and last week's sell-off plus yesterday’s move lower, reinforces this condition. The contract has breached bull channel support drawn from the Jan 17 low, and cleared the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would open the 50-day EMA, at 5155.37 and the next key support. Key resistance is 5333.50, the Apr 1 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $96.16 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $94.94 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $92.96 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $91.91 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $90.54 @ 06:50 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: $87.39 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $84.44 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $79.70 - Low Feb 26
• SUP 4: $76.18 - Low Feb 5 and key S/T support

A bull cycle in Brent futures remains in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The recent breach of resistance at $88.51, the Sep 15 ‘23 high, reinforced bullish conditions and this has led to a break of the psychological $90.00 handle. Sights are on $92.96, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend. Initial firm support is $87.39, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (K4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $91.15 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $89.08 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $87.63 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $86.24 @ 07:00 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: $83.33 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $80.31/76.43 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $71.52 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.02 - Low Jan 3

A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s rally reinforced current conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has traded through $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high, paving the way for a climb towards the $90.00 handle further out. The next objective is $89.08, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $83.33, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Trading Closer To its Recent Highs

• RES 4: $2429.0 - 2.50 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2405.5 - 2.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2376.5 - 2.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2365.4 - High Apr 9
• PRICE: $2338.5 @ 07:06 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: $2267.9/2244.2 - Low Apr 5 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2160.7 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal is trading closer to this week’s highs. The latest climb maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. The $2300.0 handle has been cleared. The next objective is $2376.5, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at $2244.2, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Impulsive Bull Cycle Intact

• RES 4: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
• RES 3: $29.052 - 2.382 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $28.613 - 2.236 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $28.523 - High Apr 10
• PRICE: $27.873@ 07:54 BST Apr 11
• SUP 1: $26.008 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $24.764/328 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 27
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

Silver rallied last week and has also traded higher this week. The latest rally has resulted in a clear break of resistance at 25.761, the Dec 4 high, strengthening bullish conditions. Note that key resistance at $26.135, May 5 ‘23 high, has also been cleared highlighting an important technical break. Sights are on $28.613 a Fibonacci projection point. Key support lies at $24.328, the Mar 27 low.