MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Extends Bull Run

Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Extends Bull Run

• E-Mini S&P futures remain vulnerable despite last week’s gains. Key support lies at 4094.25, the Feb 24 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and expose the 4000.00 handle. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain vulnerable however a corrective cycle is still in play following last week’s recovery. The move higher is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. Resistance to watch is at 3817.30, the 20-day EMA.
• EURUSD remains below resistance at 1.1121 - the Jan 28 low, a recent breakout level plus the Mar 10 high. While this resistance holds, a bearish threat remains present and attention is on key near-term support at 1.0806, Mar 7 low. USDJPY is firm and has traded to a fresh cycle high today as the pair extends its current bull run. Last week’s key technical development was a break of resistance at 116.34/35, the Feb 10 / Jan 4 highs. AUDUSD is trading lower today as the pair extends the pullback from 0.7441, the Mar 7 high. The continuation lower suggests potential for a deeper correction and this means the price pattern on Mar 7 - a bearish shooting star candle - remains in play.
• The all-time high print in Gold of $2075.5 on Aug 7 2020 remains intact for now following last week’s strong pull back on Mar 9. The broader trend condition remains bullish and the pullback is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. WTI futures remain in a clear uptrend despite last week’s sharp sell-off on Mar 9, which signals potential for a deeper short-term pullback. This would allow the recent overbought trend condition to unwind.
• Bund futures traded lower last week and price remains closer to its recent lows. The contract has breached support at 165.51, Mar 3 low and 163.19, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 rally. Gilt futures traded lower last week and remain closer to their recent lows, following the pullback from the recent high of 126.81 on Mar 1. The contract has breached support at 123.50, Mar 1 low and 122.04, the Feb 23 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1280 Low Feb 14
• RES 3: 1.1232 61.8% of Feb 10 - Mar 7 sell-off and the 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1129 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.1121 Low Jan 28/High Mar 10 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: 1.0913 @ 06:18 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 1.0890/06 Low Mar 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 3: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0654 2.50 proj of the Jan - Mar - May 2021 price swing

EURUSD remains below resistance at 1.1121 - the Jan 28 low, a recent breakout level plus the Mar 10 high. While this resistance holds, a bearish threat remains present and attention is on key near-term support at 1.0806, Mar 7 low. On the upside, bulls will look for a clear break of 1.1121 to signal scope for a stronger corrective rally that would open 1.1232, the 50-day EMA and a Fibonacci retracement. A break of 1.0806 resumes the downtrend.

GBPUSD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 1.3416 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3358 Low Jan 27
• RES 2: 1.3313 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3195 High Mar 10
• PRICE: 1.3021 @ 06:28 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 1.2998 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD has started this week on a softer note, trading to a fresh bear cycle low. A bearish theme follows last week’s move lower that has confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend that started early Jan 2021. This opens the 1.3000 handle next and 1.2954, a 1.50 projection of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3195, the Mar 10 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Conditions Appear Bullish

• RES 4: 0.8553 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 0.8498/99 High Dec 23 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8478 High Feb 7 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8436 Mar 10 High
• PRICE: 0.8387 @ 06:39 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 0.8317 Low Mar 9
• SUP 2: 0.8278 Low Mar 7
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8131 Low Jun 27, 2016

EURGBP last week traded above the key resistance at the Feb 25 high of 0.8406. This completed a 100% retracement of the most recent downleg between Feb 25 - Mar 7 and strengthens a short-term bullish condition. The move higher signals scope for an extension towards the next resistance at the early February highs of 0.8478. Initial support is seen at 0.8317, the Mar 9 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 118.60/66 High Jan 3 ‘17 / Dec 15 ‘16 and key resistance
• RES 3: 118.32 2.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 118.19 High Jan 4 2017
• RES 1: 117.88 Intraday high
• PRICE: 117.82 @ 06:56 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 117.28/116.35/ Intraday low / High Jan 4
• SUP 2: 115.76 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 114.41 Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: 114.16 Low Feb 02 and a bear trigger

USDJPY is firm and has traded to a fresh cycle high today as the pair extends its current bull run. Last week’s key technical development was a break of resistance at 116.34/35, the Feb 10 / Jan 4 highs. This confirmed a resumption of the broader uptrend that started early Jan 2021. Attention turns to highs dating back to Jan 2017. 118.19 is the next objective, the Jan 4 2017 high. On the downside, firm support is seen at 116.35.

EURJPY TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 130.29 High Feb 25
• RES 3: 129.81 61.8% Retracement Feb - Mar Downleg
• RES 2: 129.28 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.04 High Mar 11
• PRICE: 128.58 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 127.42/126.01 Low Mar 10 / Low Mar 9
• SUP 2: 124.40/28 Low Mar 7 / 50.0% of the 2020 - 2021 bulls cycle
• SUP 3: 123.45 1.618 proj of the Jan - Sep - Oct ‘21 price swing
• SUP 4: 123.01 Low Nov 20 2020

EURJPY remains in a short-term uptrend following last week’s gains and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. The 50% retracement of the Feb - Mar downleg, at 128.77, has been probed. Clearance of this hurdle would suggest scope for a stronger recovery towards the 50-day EMA at 129.28. Recent gains are still considered corrective though and trend signals such as MAs continue to highlight a downtrend. Initial support is at 127.42/126.01.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Extension

• RES 4: 0.7556 High Oct 28, 2021 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7532 High Nov 2, 2021
• RES 2: 0.7441 High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.7368 High Mar 10
• PRICE: 0.7243 @ 07:11 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 0.7223 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.7141 Low Feb 25
• SUP 3: 0.7095 Low Feb 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.7052 Low Feb 4

AUDUSD is trading lower today as the pair extends the pullback from 0.7441, the Mar 7 high. The continuation lower suggests potential for a deeper correction and this means the price pattern on Mar 7 - a bearish shooting star candle - remains in play. The move lower has exposed the 50-day EMA at 0.7223 - a key support. The primary trend remains up though. A reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.7441, the bull trigger.

USDCAD TECHS: Probes The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3024 38.2% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘21 bear cycle
• RES 3: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 1: 1.2842/2901 High Mar 10 / High Mar 8
• PRICE: 1.2772 @ 08:28 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 1.2714/2694 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11
• SUP 2: 1.2587 Low Mar 3
• SUP 3: 1.2552 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally
• SUP 4: 1.2499 Low Jan 21

USDCAD remains below last week’s high of 1.2901 on Mar 8. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and the focus is on the 50-day EMA, at 1.2714 - a key support. The average was probed Friday and a clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement of the recent Mar 3 - 8 rally. On the upside, clearance of 1.2901 is required to reinstate the recent bullish focus and resume the uptrend that started mid-January.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Trading At Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 170.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 168.67 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 167.17 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 164.48/65.29 20-day EMA / High Mar 9
• PRICE: 162.25 @ 05:06 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 162.02 Low Mar 11
• SUP 2: 161.50 Low Feb 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 161.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 159.81 123.6% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 rally

Bund futures traded lower last week and price remains closer to its recent lows. The contract has breached support at 165.51, Mar 3 low and 163.19, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 rally. This signals potential for a move towards the key level at 161.50, the Feb 10 low and a medium-term bear trigger. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 165.29, the Mar 9 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Approaching The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 134.400 High Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• RES 3: 134.080 High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 133.390 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 131.991/32.590 20-day EMA / High Mar 9
• PRICE: 130.920 @ 05:13 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 130.750 Low Mar 11
• SUP 2: 130.410 Low Feb 8 and a key support
• SUP 3: 130.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 129.554 123.6% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 upleg

Bobl futures traded lower again Friday, extending last week’s retracement from 134.080, the Mar 7 high. Support at 132.130, the Mar 1 low and 131.726, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 rally, have been cleared. This suggests potential for a continuation lower. Attention is on key support at 130.410, the Feb 8 low and the bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is at 132.590, the Mar 9 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Remains Below Its Recent High

• RES 4: 112.300 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 112.210 High Mar 7 and short-term key resistance
• RES 2: 112.015 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 111.560/850 High Mar 11 / High Mar 9
• PRICE: 111.375 @ 05:19 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 111.285 Low Mar 10
• SUP 2: 111.240 Low Feb 23 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 111.145 Low Feb 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 111.100 Round number support

Schatz futures are trading closer to last week’s lows. The recent move lower is, for now, still considered corrective although the break of support at 111.655, Mar 3 low, suggests potential for a deeper pullback. This has opened 111.240, the Feb 23 low and a key short-term support. On the upside, a strong recovery would signal the end of last week’s bear leg and refocus attention on the key resistance at 112.210.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 126.81 High Mar 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 125.85 High Mar 4
• RES 2: 124.60 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 123.52 High Mar 9
• PRICE: 122.26 @ Close Mar 14
• SUP 1: 121.86 Low Feb 23
• SUP 2: 121.10 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 120.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 119.75 123.6% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb

Gilt futures traded lower last week and remain closer to their recent lows, following the pullback from the recent high of 126.81 on Mar 1. The contract has breached support at 123.50, Mar 1 low and 122.04, the Feb 23 low. This has exposed the key support at 121.10, Feb 16 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, a strong rebound would ease the bearish threat. Initial firm resistance is seen at $124.60, the Mar 8 high.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Key Support Appears Exposed

• RES 4: 147.93 High Jan 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 146.74 High Mar 1
• RES 2: 145.06 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 142.26/43.85 20-day EMA / High Mar 10
• PRICE: 140.24 @ Close Mar 11
• SUP 1: 139.67 Low Mar 10/11
• SUP 2: 138.99 Low Feb 22
• SUP 3: 138.60 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 138.00 Round number support

BTP futures traded sharply lower Thursday. The break of support at 142.51, Mar 1 low, signalled an important intraday breach that led to a move below 140.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 16 - Mar 1 rally. This suggests scope for a continuation lower and has exposed the key support at 138.60, Feb 16 low and the bear trigger. Initial resistance is seen at 143.85, Mar 10 high, where a break is required to ease the developing bearish threat.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (M2): Remains Below The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 3: 4578.50 High Feb 9 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4415.63-50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4314.094326.75 20-day EMA / High Mar 11
• PRICE: 4227.25 @ 07:04 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 4094.25 Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3983.25 1.00 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 9 price swing

E-Mini S&P futures remain vulnerable despite week’s gains. Key support lies at 4094.25, the Feb 24 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and expose the 4000.00 handle. The 20-day EMA, at 4314.09, represents an important near-term resistance. Price has recently failed to hold above this EMA. A clear break of it though would suggest scope for a stronger bounce.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 4119.50 High Feb 21
• RES 2: 3985.70 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3817.30/3827.00 20-day EMA / High Mar 11
• PRICE: 3702.50 @ 06:18 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: 3546.00/3380.00 Low Mar 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 3318.60 2.382 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 3246.30 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain vulnerable however a corrective cycle is still in play following last week’s recovery. The move higher is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. Resistance to watch is at 3817.30, the 20-day EMA. This has been probed and a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery with the 50-day EMA at 3985.70. The latter EMA is a key resistance. The broader trend direction is down, the bear trigger is 3380.00.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Eyeing The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $139.13 - High Mar 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $131.64 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $124.36 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 range
• RES 1: $117.73 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 9 range
• PRICE: $109.74 @ 05:46 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: $105.48 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $98.30 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: $95.44 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $92.75 - Low Feb 25

Brent futures traded in an extremely wide range last week, touching a high of $139.19 on Mar 7 and a low of $105.60 on Mar 9. From a trend perspective, the direction remains up. Last week’s pullback though is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Key support to watch is seen firstly at $105.48, the 20-day EMA and below that at $95.44, the 50-day EMA. A convincing break of the 50-day EMA is required to threaten the uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $130.50 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $126.84 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $121.36 - 50.0% of the Mar 9 range
• RES 1: $115.24 - 50.0% of the Mar 9 range
• PRICE: $106.30 @ 05:56 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: $102.88 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $95.32 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: $92.95 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $90.06 - Low Feb 23 and a key support

WTI futures remain in a clear uptrend despite last week’s sharp sell-off on Mar 9, which signals potential for a deeper short-term pullback. This would allow the recent overbought trend condition to unwind. The next firm area of support is seen at the 20-day EMA, at $102.88. A clear breach of this average would open the 50-day EMA further out at $92.95. On the upside, the key resistance and bull trigger is the Mar 7 high of $130.50.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Below Its All-Time High

• RES 4: $2119.3 - 3.382 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2104.6 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and the all-time high
• RES 1: $2009.2/2070.4 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8
• PRICE: $1975.3 @ 07:19 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: $1958.8 - Low Mar 7
• SUP 2: $1938.2 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1901.5 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support

The all-time high print in Gold of $2075.5 on Aug 7 2020 remains intact for now following last week’s strong pull back on Mar 9. The broader trend condition remains bullish and the pullback is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The next support is seen at $1958.8, Mar 11 low, while a firmer area of support lies at $1938.2, the 20-day EMA. On the upside, a resumption of strength would once again refocus attention on $2075.50.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $27.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $26.943 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $25.574 @ 08:34 GMT Mar 14
• SUP 1: $24.866 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: $24.129 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $22.863/008 - Low Feb 11 / Low Feb 3 and key S/T support

Silver remains in an uptrend despite last week’s pullback. The metal traded to a fresh cycle high on Mar 8 to confirm a resumption of its current bull cycle. Price has cleared resistance at $25.406, the Nov 16 2021 high and last week breached the $26.00 handle. An extension higher would pave the way for strength towards $27.00 next and $27.245, the Jun 17 2021 high. Initial support is seen at $24.866, the Mar 2 low.