MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

Price Signal Summary – USDJPY Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• S&P e-minis maintain a firmer short-term tone and the contract traded to a fresh short-term high on Friday. This reinforces bullish conditions and has also resulted in a test of trendline resistance at 4428.75. The trendline is drawn from the Jul 27 high. A short-term bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has recently traded through resistance at both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The clear break of the 50-day EMA, at 4186.70, signals scope for a stronger bull cycle
• A short-term bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and last week’s move lower appears to be a correction. A doji candle on Friday - if correct - represents a short-term reversal signal. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on resistance at 1.2428, the Nov 6 high and bull trigger. The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and the pair has started the week on a firm note. Price has traded above 151.72, the Oct 31 high and a bull trigger, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This reinforces a bullish theme and note that moving average studies are still in a bull-mode position. AUDUSD traded lower last week and price remains closer to the latest lows. Despite the pullback, a short-term bull cycle remains in play and the move down appears to be a correction. A reversal higher would signal the end of the correction and refocus attention on 0.6523.
• The latest pullback in Gold appears to be a correction - for now - and the trend condition is bullish. MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. A resumption of gains would open $2022.20, the May 15 high. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains in play following last week’s sharp sell-off. The recent move down has resulted in a break of support at $80.20, the Oct 6 low.
• Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs but - for now - maintain a firmer short-term tone. The recent breach of a key resistance at 130.20, the Oct 12 high and a bull trigger, strengthens current bullish conditions and maintains a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract traded to a fresh high last week, before pulling back. S/T weakness is considered corrective. Price recently cleared 93.82 and 94.52, the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement points of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg.

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Flag Formation

• RES 4: 1.0862 50.0% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0809 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 1.0764 38.2% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0756 High Nov 6
• PRICE: 1.0685 @ 05:45 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 1.0660 50- day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0638 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0517/0496 Low Nov 1/ 13
• SUP 4: 1.0448 Low Oct 03 and the bear trigger

A bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact and last week’s shallow pullback appears to be a correction and a bull flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. A resumption of gains would expose 1.0764, a Fibonacci retracement, and a break of this level would open 1.0809, the Sep 4 high. Firm support is at 1.0517, the Nov 1 low, a break would be bearish. Initial firm support is 1.0638, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Doji Candle Pattern

• RES 4: 1.2506 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 1.2459 38.2% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2435 200-dma
• RES 1: 1.2309/1.2428 High Nov 9 / 6
• PRICE: 1.2234 @ 06:19 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 1.2185 Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 1.2070 Low Oct 26
• SUP 3: 1.2037/28 Low Oct 04 and bear trigger / Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support

A short-term bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and last week’s move lower appears to be a correction. A doji candle on Friday - if correct - represents a short-term reversal signal. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on resistance at 1.2428, the Nov 6 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would open the 200-dma at 1.2435 and 1.2459, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at 1.2185, the Nov 3 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8756 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 0.8736 @ 06:40 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 0.8699 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8669/50 50-day EMA / Low Nov 6
• SUP 3: 0.8616 Low Oct 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support

The trend outlook in EURGBP remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Resistance at 0.8754, the Oct 31 high, has been pierced. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 0.8793, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a rising trend. Note too that support at 0.8668, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. A clear break of the average is required to signal a top.

USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 154.00 3.382 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 153.52 2.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 151.95 High Oct 21 2022 and a major resistance
• PRICE: 151.78 @ 05:54 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 150.25 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 149.21/148.85 Low Nov 3 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 148.81 Low Oct 30
• SUP 4: 147.43 Low Oct 3 and key support

The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and the pair has started the week on a firm note. Price has traded above 151.72, the Oct 31 high and a bull trigger, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This reinforces a bullish theme and note that moving average studies are still in a bull-mode position, reflecting the market's positive sentiment. Sights are on 151.95, the Oct 21 2022 high and a major resistance. Support is at 150.25, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 164.77 1.236 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 3: 164.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 163.10 High Aug 22 2008
• RES 1: 162.80 1.00 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• PRICE: 162.25 @ 06:53 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 159.84/158.66 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 157.70 Low Oct 30
• SUP 3: 156.98 Low Oct 16
• SUP 4: 155.83 Low Oct 4

EURJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the cross has started the week on a bullish note. Continued gains reinforce bullish conditions and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, reflecting the market's positive sentiment. Sights are on 162.80 next, a Fibonacci extension. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 159.84, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 0.6603 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 0.6582 50.0% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6522/23 High Aug 30 and Sep 1 / Nov 6 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6449 High Nov 8
• PRICE: 0.6372 @ 07:53 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 0.6330 76.4% retracement of the Oct 26 - Nov 6 rally
• SUP 2: 0.6315/0.6270 Low Oct 31 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support

AUDUSD traded lower last week and price remains closer to the latest lows. Despite the pullback, a short-term bull cycle remains in play and the move down appears to be a correction. A reversal higher would signal the end of the correction and refocus attention on 0.6523, the Nov 6 high and the bull trigger. Support to watch lies at 0.6315, the Oct 31 low. Clearance of this level would expose the key support at 0.6270, the Oct 26 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.129 1.382 proj of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 - Oct 10 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4067 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 2022 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3802 @ 08:00 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 1.3664/29 50-day EMA / Low Nov 6
• SUP 2: 1.3600 Trendline support drawn from the Jul 14 low
• SUP 3: 1.3496 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3417 Low Sep 29

USDCAD managed to find support last week and the pair remains above 1.3629, the Nov 6 low. The trend outlook is bullish and MA studies are in a bull-mode position. Support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3664, has remained intact and this suggests the move lower between Nov 1 - 6 was a correction. Sights are on the bull trigger at 1.3899, Nov 1 high. On the downside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA would be a bearish development.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 131.82 High Sep 2
• RES 3: 131.49 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 131.33 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 1: 130.93 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 129.55 @ 05:41 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 129.46 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 128.31/127.18 Low Oct 27 / 23
• SUP 3: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs but - for now - maintain a firmer short-term tone. The recent breach of a key resistance at 130.20, the Oct 12 high and a bull trigger, strengthens current bullish conditions and maintains a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 131.33, 76.4% of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg. Firm support to watch is 129.35, the Nov 7 low. A breach would highlight a possible reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 117.610 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 117.230 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 116.966 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 downleg
• RES 1: 116.940 High Nov 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 116.140 @ 05:55 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 116.070 Low Nov 1
• SUP 2: 115.850 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 115.480/130 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 4: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Key short-term resistance at 116.500, the Oct 10 high, has recently been cleared and this signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Scope is seen for a move towards 116.966, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 bear leg. 115.850 marks the next support, the Oct 27 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 3: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 2: 105.220/335 High Nov 6 and 8 / High Nov 2
• RES 1: 105.104 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 104.995 @ 06:08 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 104.940 Low Oct 26
• SUP 2: 104.880/765 Low Oct 20 / Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures traded lower Friday, extending the pullback from 105.335, the Nov 2 high. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards a key support at 104.765, the Sep 21 low. Initial support to watch lies at 104.940, the Oct 26 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would instead expose 105.335 key resistance, the Nov 2 high. Initial firm resistance is at 105.220, the Nov 8 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 97.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 96.71 High Sep 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 96.37 High Sep 22
• RES 1: 96.14 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 95.09 @ Close Nov 10
• SUP 1: 94.07 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 92.63 Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 91.62/90.85 Low Oct 26 / 23
• SUP 4: 90.38 Low Oct 12 2022 (cont) and a major support

Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract traded to a fresh high last week, before pulling back. S/T weakness is considered corrective. Price recently cleared 93.82 and 94.52, the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement points of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg. Last week’s gains resulted in a print above 95.66, the Oct 12 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish case and open 96.71, the Sep 20 high. First support is 94.07, the 50-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Trading Above Support

• RES 4: 115.56 High Aug 24
• RES 3: 114.01 High Sep 8
• RES 2: 113.69 76.4% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 113.00 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 112.10 @ Close Nov 10
• SUP 1: 111.11/110.95 50- and 20-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 109.64 Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 108.01/107.42 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 4: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play - for now. The contract has recently breached 111.17, the Oct 12 high. This has strengthened current conditions and exposes 113.69, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 110.95, the 20-day EMA, where a break is required to signal a possible reversal. This would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4329.80 61.8% retracement of the Jul 31 - Oct 27 bear leg
• RES 2: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4256.00 High Oct 12 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 4219.00 @ 06:30 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 4153.90/4001.00 20-day EMA / Low Oct 27 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3979.00 1.00 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low Mar 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3873.20 1.382 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

A short-term bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has recently traded through resistance at both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The clear break of the 50-day EMA, at 4186.70, signals scope for a stronger bull cycle and opens 4256.00, the Oct 12 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger lies at 4001.0, the Oct 27 low. Initial support is at 4153.90, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Testing Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 4566.00 High Sep 15
• RES 3: 4508.00 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 4470.18 61.8% retracement of the Jul 27 - Oct 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 4435.50 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 4416.25 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: 4332.18 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4257.75/4122.25 Low Nov 3 / Low Oct 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4100.00 Round number support 4124.19
• SUP 4: 4090.35 1.764 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing

S&P e-minis maintain a firmer short-term tone and the contract traded to a fresh short-term high on Friday. This reinforces bullish conditions and has also resulted in a test of trendline resistance at 4428.75. The trendline is drawn from the Jul 27 high and a clear break of it would strengthen current bullish conditions. This would open 4470.18, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at 4332.18, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F4) Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $98.99 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 3: $93.20 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $89.49/92.32 - High Oct 24 / 20
• RES 1: $82.20/87.80 - Low Oct 6 / High Nov 3 and key S/T resistance
• PRICE: $80.90 @ 06:56 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: $79.20 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: $78.89 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $77.21 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 4: $75.51 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

Brent futures traded sharply lower last week and the contract remains closer to its recent lows. The latest sell-off has resulted in a break of support at $82.20, Oct 6 low and a bear trigger. This strengthens the current bear cycle and exposes $78.89 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would pave the way for an extension towards $77.21, the Jul 17 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $87.80, the Nov 3 high.

WTI TECHS: (Z3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $92.48 - High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $89.85 - High Oct 20
• RES 2: $85.90 - High Oct 27
• RES 1: $80.20/83.60 - Low Oct 6 / High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $76.53 @ 07:07 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: $74.91 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: $74.26 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $73.12 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 4: $69.96 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains in play following last week’s sharp sell-off. The recent move down has resulted in a break of support at $80.20, the Oct 6 low. The breach highlights a stronger reversal and a continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards $74.26, the 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $83.60.

GOLD TECHS: Testing Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2048.2 - High May 10
• RES 2: $2022.2 - High May 15
• RES 1: $1978.4/2009.4 - High Nov 7 / High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1938.6 @ 07:14 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: $1938.1/1908.3 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 16
• SUP 2: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: $1844.3 - Low Oct 9
• SUP 4: $1810.5 - Low Oct 6 and key support

The latest pullback in Gold appears to be a correction - for now - and the trend condition is bullish. MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. A resumption of gains would open $2022.20, the May 15 high. The bull trigger is at $2009.4, the Oct 27 high. Note that support at the 50-day EMA, at $1938.1, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would undermine the bullish theme and expose $1908.3, the Oct 16 low.

SILVER TECHS: Move Lower Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• RES 3: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 1: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $22.066 @ 08:04 GMT Nov 13
• SUP 1: $21.573 - Low Oct 9
• SUP 2: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. For bulls, price has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher strengthens bullish conditions and has opened $23.774, the Sep 22 high. On the downside, a continuation lower and a break of $20.689, the Oct 3 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Initial support is at $21.573, the Oct 9 low.