MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Trend Structure Bullish Despite Recent Pullback

Price Signal Summary – USDJPY Trend Structure Bullish Despite Recent Pullback

• The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact, however, a corrective cycle has resulted in a pullback from the recent high of 5368.25 (May 23). The latest move down has seen price pierce support at the 50-day EMA, at 5219.79. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower Tuesday, extending the current bear cycle. The recent move down appears to be a correction, but note that support at the 50-day EMA, at 4966.80, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would undermine the short-term bullish theme.
• The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish. This week’s fresh cycle highs and print above 1.2801, the May 29 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The trend outlook in USDJPY remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction - for now. This week’s breach of support around the 20-day EMA, has exposed key support at 154.66, the 50-day EMA, and 153.93, a trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low. A bull trend in USDCAD is intact and the latest move down is deemed corrective. Key support has been defined at 1.3590, May 16 low. A clear break of it would threaten the bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• A bear cycle in Gold remains in play for now, and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent lows. The medium-term trend structure is bullish and the recent move down appears to be a correction that is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. WTI futures have traded sharply lower this week and the contract remains soft. Price has cleared $73.24, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull leg. This reinforces the current bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation.
• A bear cycle in Bund futures remains in play and last week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce this theme. The latest recovery from 129.37, the May 31 low, appears to be a correction for now. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and the next resistance to watch is 131.77. Gilt futures traded higher Monday as the contract extends the recovery from 95.33, the May 29 low. For now, gains are considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at 95.87, the May 1 low.

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.0981 High Mar 08 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0964 High Mar 13
• RES 2: 1.0933 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0916 High Jun 04
• PRICE: 1.0880 @ 05:52 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: 1.0831 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0788 Low May 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.0766 Low May 13
• SUP 4: 1.0724 Low May 90

Despite the pullback in EURUSD from yesterday’s high, a bull cycle remains in play. Recent gains have resulted in a break of 1.0895, the May 16 high and a bull trigger. This confirmed a resumption of the bull trend and confirmed a flag formation on the daily chart. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and highlight an uptrend. Sights are on 1.0933, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at 1.0788, the May 30 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2859 1.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2817 High June 4
• PRICE: 1.2771 @ 06:25 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: 1.2693/1.2639 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.2584 Low May 15
• SUP 3: 1.2510 Low May 14
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish. This week’s fresh cycle highs and print above 1.2801, the May 29 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on 1.2859, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 1.2693, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Consolidation Marks A Pause In The Downtrend

• RES 4: 0.8621 High May 9 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 0.8597 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8551 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8541 High May 31
• PRICE: 0.8518 @ 06:39 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: 0.8484 Low May 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 3: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2023
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022

EURGBP is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. The trend condition is bearish and attention is on 0.8484, the May 29 low and a bear trigger. Key supports have recently been pierced; the 0.8500 pivot level, and an important support zone between 0.8498, the Feb 14 low, and 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low. A clear breach of these price points would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8541, the May 31 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Key Support Zone Remains Intact

• RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 158.12 76.4% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off
• RES 2: 157.99 High May 1
• RES 1: 156.13/157.71 20-day EMA / High May 29
• PRICE: 155.63 @ 06:50 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: 154.66/55 50-day EMA / Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 153.93 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
• SUP 3: 151.86 Low May 3 and a pivot level
• SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5

The trend outlook in USDJPY remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction - for now. This week’s breach of support around the 20-day EMA, has exposed key support at 154.66, the 50-day EMA, and 153.93, a trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low. A clear break of this key zone would be bearish and highlight a stronger reversal. For bulls, a move above 157.71, the May 29 high, is required to resume a short-term uptrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 173.31 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 172.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 171.56 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 170.89 High Jun 3
• PRICE: 169.35 @ 07:01 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: 168.09 Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 167.16 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low
• SUP 3: 165.64 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 164.02 Low May 3 and a pivot support

EURJPY has faded off recent highs, however the move down appears to be a correction. The medium-term trend structure remains bullish and sights are on 171.56, the Apr 29 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Support to watch is at a key trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low, at 167.16. A clear breach of this line would highlight a potential reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 1: 0.6714 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6656 @ 07:40 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: 0.6595 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6558 Low May 8
• SUP 3: 0.6465 Low May 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6407 Low Apr 22

A bull cycle in AUDUSD that started Apr 19, remains intact and short-term pull backs still appear to be corrective in nature. A key support to watch lies at 0.6595, the 50-day EMA, that remains intact for now. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement to 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low. For bulls, a continuation higher would pave the way for 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. The bull trigger is unchanged at 0.6714, May 16 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Trading Above Support

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3748/85 61.8% of the Apr 16 - Mar 16 bear leg / High Apr 30
• PRICE: 1.3678 @ 07:56 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: 1.3590 Low May 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

A bull trend in USDCAD is intact and the latest move down is deemed corrective. Key support has been defined at 1.3590, May 16 low. A clear break of it would threaten the bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would also confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 1.3646, and 1.3610, the May 3 low. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 132.83 High May 16 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 132.18 High May 17
• RES 2: 131.77 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.55 High Jun 4
• PRICE: 131.05 @ 05:18 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: 130.50 Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 129.83 Low Jun 1
• SUP 3: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 129.00 round number support

A bear cycle in Bund futures remains in play and last week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce this theme. The latest recovery from 129.37, the May 31 low, appears to be a correction -for now. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and the next resistance to watch is 131.77, the 50-day EMA. For bears, a reversal lower would expose 129.37, and a break of this level would resume the downtrend and open the 129.00 handle.

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 116.750 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 116.420 High May 17
• RES 3: 116.351 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - 31 bear leg
• RES 1: 116.160 High Jun 4
• PRICE: 115.900 @ 05:31 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: 115.640 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 115.320 Low Jun 3
• SUP 3: 115.060 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 115.000 Round number support

A downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and last week’s extension lower reinforces current conditions. The latest recovery is considered corrective - for now. The next resistance to watch is 116.351, a Fibonacci retracement point. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key short-term support and the bear trigger at 115.060, the May 31 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear trend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 105.625 High May 17
• RES 3: 105.572 76.4% retracement of the May 15 - 24 bear leg
• RES 2: 105.484 61.8% retracement of the May 15 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 105.460 High Jun 4
• PRICE: 105.385 @ 06:00 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: 105.300 Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 105.195 Low Jun 3
• SUP 3: 105.110 Low May 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 105.00 Round number support

The trend condition on Schatz futures remains bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting bearish market sentiment. The next resistance to watch is 105.484, a Fibonacci retracement point. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 105.110, the May 24 low. A break would resume the downtrend.

GILT TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 98.89 High May 16 a key resistance
• RES 3: 98.25 High May 21
• RES 2: 98.04 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle
• RES 1: 97.86 High Jun 4
• PRICE: 97.59 @ Close Jun 4
• SUP 1: 97.08 Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 96.26 Low Jun 3
• SUP 3: 95.33 Low May 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 95.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded higher Monday as the contract extends the recovery from 95.33, the May 29 low. For now, gains are considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at 95.87, the May 1 low. The clear break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension towards 95.17 next, a Fibonacci projection. The next resistance to watch is 98.04, a Fibonacci retracement point.

BTP TECHS: (U4) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.89 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - 29 bear leg
• RES 1: 117.47 61.8% retracement of the May 16 - 29 bear leg
• PRICE: 117.01 @ Close Jun 4
• SUP 1: 116.13 Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 115.67 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 115.54 Low Apr 25 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 114.88 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 27 price swing

BTP futures traded sharply lower last week and in the process cleared support at 116.64, the May 14 low. The move down strengthens a bearish threat and a resumption of the bear leg would open 115.54, the Apr 25 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would highlight an important technical break. Recent gains appear to be corrective. Resistance to watch is 117.47, a Fibonacci retracement point.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Pierces Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 5162.00 High Nov 2000
• RES 3: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5110.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 5047.00/5082.00 High Jun 3 / High May 28
• PRICE: 4988.00 @ 06:30 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: 4947.00 Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 4936.00 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4894.90 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4862.00 Low Apr 25

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower Tuesday, extending the current bear cycle. The recent move down appears to be a correction, but note that support at the 50-day EMA, at 4966.80, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would undermine the short-term bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 4894.90, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is seen at 5047.00, the Jun 3 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 5417.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5372.73 1.764 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5368.25 High May 23 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 4312.00 @ 07:20 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: 5205.50 Low May 31 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 5155.75 Low May 6
• SUP 3: 5099.25 Low May 3
• SUP 4: 5036.25 Low May 2

The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact, however, a corrective cycle has resulted in a pullback from the recent high of 5368.25 (May 23). The latest move down has seen price pierce support at the 50-day EMA, at 5219.79. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The recovery from last Friday’s low is a positive development, a continuation would open 5368.25, and a breach of this level resumes the trend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q4) Impulsive Bear Cycle

• RES 4: $91.11 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.22 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $84.72/87.77 - High May 29 / High Apr 26
• RES 1: $80.44 - Low May 24 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: $77.47 @ 07:06 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: $76.76 - Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: $75.63 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $73.47 - Low Dec 13 and a key support
• SUP 4: $71.20 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - May 24 - 29 price swing

Brent futures have traded sharply lower so far this week. The move down has resulted in the breach of a number of important short-term supports. Price is through $80.44, the May 24 low, and $77.42, 76.4% of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle. The break lower reinforces a bearish theme and signals potential for an extension to $75.63, the Feb 5 low. Initial firm resistance is $84.72, the May 29 high.

WTI TECHS: (N4) Remains Soft

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $86.93 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $83.63/86.16 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $76.15/80.62 - Low May 24 / High May 1
• PRICE: $73.13 @ 07:15 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: $72.48 - Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: $71.33 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: $66.79 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - May 24 - 29 price swing

WTI futures have traded sharply lower this week and the contract remains soft. Price has cleared $73.24, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull leg. This reinforces the current bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a downtrend. Sights are on $71.33 next, the Feb 5 low. Initial resistance is at $76.15, the May 24 low and a recent breakout level.

GOLD TECHS: Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2383.8 - High May 23
• PRICE: $2329.0 @ 07:19 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: $2310.1 - 50- day EMA
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

A bear cycle in Gold remains in play for now, and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent lows. The medium-term trend structure is bullish and the recent move down appears to be a correction that is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $2452.5 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 50-day EMA, at $2310.1, represents a key support.

SILVER TECHS: Short-Term Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $35.745 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.887 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $29.518 @ 08:01 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: $29.381 - Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: $28.490 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver has traded lower this week. The trend remains bullish and the latest move down appears to be a correction that is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a break of resistance at $29.797, Apr 12 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has opened $33.887 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support at the 20-day EMA has been breached. The next level to monitor is $28.490, the 50-day EMA.