MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Cracks Key Resistance

Price Signal Summary - WTI Cracks Key Resistance

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis found support yesterday. The contract however has recently breached its 20-day EMA and this signals potential for a pullback towards and test of the key 50-day EMA that intersects at 4410.32 today. EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to consolidate. The contract traded to a fresh trend high of 4252.00 on Sep 6 reinforcing the primary uptrend. This opens 4294.20, 1.236 projection of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 swing.
• In FX, EURUSD is consolidating and remains above recent lows. The near-term outlook is unchanged and remains bearish with technical signals continuing to point south. The focus is on 1.1758, a Fibonacci retracement and 1.1735, Aug 27 low. GBPUSD probed resistance on Tuesday at 1.3892, Sep 3 high before finding resistance. The sharp reversal from that day's high has defined a new key short-term resistance at 1.3913 where a clear break is required to confirm a resumption of the recent uptrend.
• On the commodity front, Gold continues to trade above recent lows. The yellow metal last week failed to tackle a key resistance at $1834.1, Jul 15 high and a bull trigger. A break of this resistance would strengthen the current bullish theme and pave the way for a climb towards $1863.3, a Fibonacci retracement. WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook and the contract rallied yesterday. This has resulted in a break of $71.30, the bear channel top drawn off the Jul 6 high. The move higher strengthens the current bullish theme and signals scope for further short-term gains.
• In FI, Bund futures are trading closer to recent lows and maintain a weaker tone. A bearish theme follows last week's move through 172.00. The break lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend from Aug 5 and paves the way for a deeper retracement. Gilt futures have recently traded in a choppy manner. The outlook remains bearish following last week's extension lower that resulted in a break of former support at 128.11, Sep 1 low and 128.00. Tuesday's fresh low reinforces a bearish theme.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: 1.1965 50.0% retracement of the May - Aug sell-off
• RES 3: 1.1953 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1909 High Jul 30 / Sep 03 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1851 High Sep 8 / Sep 10
• PRICE: 1.1810 @ 05:59 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 1.1770/58 Low Sep 13 / 61.8% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 2: 1.1735/1664 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD is consolidating and remains above recent lows. The near-term outlook is unchanged and remains bearish with technical signals continuing to point south. The focus is on 1.1758, a Fibonacci retracement and 1.1735, Aug 27 low. A break of 1.1735 would strengthen a bearish case and open 1.1664, Aug 20 low and the key bear trigger. Key resistance is unchanged at 1.1909, Jul 30 and Sep 3 high. A break would be bullish.

GBPUSD TECHS: Holding Below Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 1.4001 High Jun 23
• RES 3: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.3958 High Aug 4
• RES 1: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and the intraday bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3836 @ 06:07 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Sep 8 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.3680 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.3602 Low Aug 20
• SUP 4: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD probed resistance on Tuesday at 1.3892, Sep 3 high before finding resistance. The sharp reversal from that day's high has defined a new key short-term resistance at 1.3913 where a clear break is required to confirm a resumption of the recent uptrend. This would open 1.3958, Aug 4 high ahead of a key resistance at 1.3983, Jul 30 high. Key support is unchanged at 1.3727, Sep 8 low. A break would be bearish.

EURGBP TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8659 High Jul 21
• RES 2: 0.8614/18 High Sep 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 20 - Aug 10 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8563 High Sep 15
• PRICE: 0.8536 @ 06:12 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 0.8511 Low Sep 13 / 14
• SUP 2: 0.8506/02 Low Jul 19 / 76.4% of the Aug 10 - Sep 7 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8484 Low Aug 16
• SUP 4: 0.8450 Low Aug 10 and the bear trigger

EURGBP conditions remain bearish despite recent gains. A key short-term support at 0.8543, Aug 24 low was cleared on Sep 9 exposing 0.8506 and 0.8484 further out, the Jul 19 and Aug 16 lows respectively. 0.8450, the Aug 10 low marks the key support where a break would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. For bulls, the key short-term resistance is at 0.8614, the Sep 7 high. A break would strengthen a bullish case.

USDJPY TECHS: Support Appears Exposed

• RES 4: 110.82 High Jul 7
• RES 3: 110.80 High Aug 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 110.45/46 High Sep 8 / High Aug 13
• RES 1: 109.86 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 109.24 @ 06:23 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 109.11 Low Aug 16 / Sep 15
• SUP 2: 108.72 Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.47 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally

USDJPY is trading lower, breaking out of its recent range and is approaching support at 109.11, Aug 16 / Sep 15 low. A breach of this support would reinforce a bearish theme and expose the firmer support at 108.72, Aug 4 low. Clearance of this level would open 108.47, a Fibonacci retracement and below. For bulls, the level to breaks remains 110.80, Aug 11 high. Initial firm resistance is at 110.45/46.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 131.09/34 High Jul 13 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 130.75 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 130.20 High Sep 14 high
• RES 1: 129.75 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.00 @ 06:38 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 128.60 Low Aug 24 and 76.4% of the Aug 19 - sep 3 rally
• SUP 2: 128.16 Low Aug 23
• SUP 3: 127.94 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 127.88 50.0% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jan rally

EURJPY is trading lower this morning and maintains a weaker tone as it extends the sell-off that started Sep 3. 129.01, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 19 - Sep 3 rally has been breached. An extension would open 128.60, the 76.4% retracement and signal scope for a test of key support at 127.94, Aug 19 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 130.20, Sep 14 high. Key resistance is at 130.75, Sep 3 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Correction Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.7591 61.8% of the May - Aug sell-off / High Jul 13
• RES 3: 0.7534 High Jul 7
• RES 2: 0.7499/7503 50.0% of the May - Aug sell-off / High Jul 13
• RES 1: 0.7410/78 High Sep 10 / High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.7318 @ 06:50 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 0.7292 50.0% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 2: 0.7248 61.8% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: 0.7222/7106 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend

AUDUSD is trading near recent lows following the corrective pullback from 0.7478, Sep 3 high. The pair has breached its 20-day EMA and a deeper pullback would open 0.7292 and 0.7248, Fibonacci retracements. For bulls, 0.7478, the Sep 3 high, marks the trigger for a resumption of the upleg that started Aug 20. A break would open the 0.7499/7503 resistance zone and establish a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

USDCAD TECHS: Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 2: 1.2834/2949 High Aug 23 / High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2762 High Sep 8
• PRICE: 1.2642 @ 06:53 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 1.2583 Low Sep 10
• SUP 2: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2303 Low Jul 6

USDCAD continues to display a stronger bullish short-term condition following the recent recovery from 1.2494, Sep 3 low. Initial resistance is unchanged at 1.2762, Sep 8 high where a break would open 1.2834, Aug 23 high and the 1.2949 bull trigger, Aug 20 high. Moving average conditions are in bull mode and this reinforces a bullish theme. On the downside, clearance of 1.2494 would alter the picture.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Heading South

• RES 4: 173.93 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 173.93 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 172.76 High Sep 2 and 3
• RES 1: 172.48 High Sep 9 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 171.45 @ 05:18 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 171.33 Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: 171.30 2.382 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
• SUP 3: 171.16 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
• SUP 4: 171.00 Round number support

Bund futures are trading closer to recent lows and maintain a weaker tone. A bearish theme follows last week's move through 172.00. The break lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend from Aug 5 and paves the way for a deeper retracement. Attention remains on 171.30 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 172.48, Sep 9 high. A break would ease the current bearish sentiment.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Trading At Recent Lows

• RES 4: 136.150 High Aug 24
• RES 4: 136.030 High Aug 30 , 31
• RES 3: 135.870 High Sep 3
• RES 2: 135.660 High Sep 7 and 9 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 135.370 @ 05:24 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 135.340 Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: 135.324 1.764 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 135.230 2.00 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 135.136 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing

Bobl futures outlook remains bearish and the contract is trading at the low end of its recent range. Last week's sell-off marked an extension of the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs, signalling scope for a continuation lower. The focus remains on 135.324 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is unchanged at 135.660, Sep 7 and 9 high where a break is required to ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 112.350 High Aug 24
• RES 3: 112.340 High Aug 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 112.305 High Sep 3
• RES 1: 112.270 High Sep 9 and 10
• PRICE: 112.245 @ 04:56 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 112.215 Low Sep 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 112.206 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.200 Round number support
• SUP 4: 112.197 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing

Schatz futures remain bearish despite recent gains on Sep 9 - the move higher is considered a correction. Weakness last week reinforced a bearish condition. The move lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the bear cycle that started Aug 5. Further downside is likely with the focus on 112.206 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is unchanged at 112.270, Sep 9 and 10 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Conditions Remain Intact

• RES 4: 129.05 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 128.77 High Sep 3
• RES 2: 128.42 High Sep 7
• RES 1: 128.18 High Sep 10, 14 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 127.83 @ Close Sep 15
• SUP 1: 127.48 Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: 127.39 1.50 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 127.25 Low Jun 23 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.91 Low Jun 17 (cont)

Gilt futures have recently traded in a choppy manner. The outlook remains bearish following last week's extension lower that resulted in a break of former support at 128.11, Sep 1 low and 128.00. Tuesday's fresh low reinforces a bearish theme. The focus is on 127.39 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 128.18, Sep 10 high.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 155.71 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger (cont)
• RES 3: 155.68 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 1: 154.63 High Sep 14
• PRICE: 154.05 @ Close Sep 15
• SUP 1: 153.66 Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: 152.94/84 Low Sep 9 / 50.0% of Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 152.66 Low Jul 15 (cont)
• SUP 4: 152.16 61.8% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)

BTP futures trend conditions remain bearish despite the strong bounce on Sep 9. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that signals potential for a continuation lower remains intact. The focus is on 152.84 next, a Fibonacci retracement and below. On the upside, further gains would open resistance at 155.14, the Aug 31 high. The bear trigger is at 152.94, Sep 7 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 4341.40 1.382 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4294.20 1.236 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4278.85 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 4211.00/52.00 High Sep 13 / High Sep 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4160.00 @ 05:51 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 4132.50 Low Sep 9
• SUP 2: 4078.00 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4026.20 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Aug 13 rally
• SUP 4: 3944.00 Low Jul 21

EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to consolidate. The contract traded to a fresh trend high of 4252.00 on Sep 6 reinforcing the primary uptrend. This opens 4294.20, 1.236 projection of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 swing. Price has however since retreated and a corrective phase is playing out. Attention is on 4138.50, the Aug 26 low. It has been probed, a clear break would open 4078.00, Aug 19 low and a key support. 4132.50 is the intraday bear trigger.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4650.60 1.236 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4591.25 1.000 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4519.75/39.50 High Sep 9 / High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4469.25 @ 06:59 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 4425.25 Low Sep 15
• SUP 2: 4410.32 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4339.75 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4224.00 Low Jul 19 and key support

S&P E-minis found support yesterday. The contract however has recently breached its 20-day EMA and this signals potential for a pullback towards and test of the key 50-day EMA that intersects at 4410.32 today. The 50-day EMA still represents a key support parameter for bulls. A clear break would be bearish. On the upside, initial resistance is at 4519.75, Sep 9. The primary bull trigger is 4539.50, Sep 3 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X1) Bullish Breakout

• RES 4: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $78.13 - 0.764 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $76.74 - 0.618 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $76.13 - High Sep 15
• PRICE: $75.47 @ 07:03 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: $72.14/70.88 - 20-day EMA / Low Sep 8
• SUP 2: $69.77/$68.13 - Low Aug 26 / Low Aug 24
• SUP 3: $64.20 - Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: $63.54 - Low May 21 and a key support

Brent futures traded higher again yesterday and in the process has traded above the Jul 6 high of $75.87. This confirms a resumption of the broader uptrend and strengthens a bullish case following this week's bear channel breakout. The channel was drawn off the Jul 6 high. The focus is on $76.74 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at $70.88, Sep 8 low.

WTI TECHS: (V1) Bear Channel Breakout

• RES 4: $76.43 - 1.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $75.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $74.77 - High Jul 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $73.52 - High Jul 30
• PRICE: $72.61 @ 07:10 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: $69.16 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $67.56 - Low Sep 9 and key support
• SUP 3: $65.41 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $61.74 - Low Aug 23 and the bear trigger

WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook and the contract rallied yesterday. This has resulted in a break of $71.30, the bear channel top drawn off the Jul 6 high. The move higher strengthens the current bullish theme and signals scope for further short-term gains. The focus is on $73.52 next, Jul 30 high ahead of the primary resistance and bull trigger at $74.77, Jul 7 high. Key support has been defined at $67.56, Sep 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: $1877.7 - High Jun 14
• RES 3: $1863.3 - High Jun 16 and 76.4% of the Jun 1 - Aug 9 sell-off
• RES 2: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 1: $1808.7/34.1 - High Sep 14 / High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1786.1 @ 07:23 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: $1781.8/1774.5 - Low Sep 14 / Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: $1751.7 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 3: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10
• SUP 4: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger

Gold continues to trade above recent lows. The yellow metal last week failed to tackle a key resistance at $1834.1, Jul 15 high and a bull trigger. A break of this resistance would strengthen the current bullish theme and pave the way for a climb towards $1863.3, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support is unchanged at $1774.5, Aug 19 low. Clearance of this level would instead signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $25.690 - 50.0% retracement of the May - Aug sell-off
• RES 3: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 2: $24.867/967 - High Sep3 / 38.2% of the May - Aug sell-off
• RES 1: $24.411 - High Sep 8
• PRICE: $23.652 @ 07:28 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: $23.388 - Low Sep 13
• SUP 2: $22.878 - Low Aug 20
• SUP 3: $22.626 - Low Aug 09 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020

Silver is trading closer to recent lows and has pulled away from recent highs. The metal recently tested its 50-day EMA currently at 24.533. This EMA however capped gains. A clear breach of it would strengthen the S/T bullish theme and open $24.967 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the metal has cleared $23.758, Sep 1 low. This signals a resumption of bearish activity and opens $22.626, Aug 9 low and the bear trigger.