MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Losses Deemed Corrective in Nature

Price Signal Summary – WTI Losses Deemed Corrective in Nature

• The trend condition in S&P e-minis is bearish and this week’s move higher is considered corrective. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low last week. The recent breach of support at 4235.50, Oct 4 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading higher as the correction from recent lows extends. Price is through resistance at the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at 4184.40. The broader trend condition is bearish.
• EURUSD remains below Tuesday’s high. The outlook is bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move lower last week has reinforced a bearish theme - the Oct 24 price pattern is a bearish engulfing candle, a strong reversal signal. The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and the pullback from Tuesday’s high appears to be a correction. Support to watch lies at the 20-day EMA, at 0.8688. The cross recently breached resistance at 0.8741, the Oct 20 high. The trend outlook in EURJPY remains bullish - the recovery from Monday’s low confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. This week’s gains have resulted in a break of resistance and the bull trigger, at 159.92, the Oct 24 high.
• The Gold trend condition is unchanged - the uptrend remains intact and a short-term pullback is considered corrective. Price has recently breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The continuation higher strengthens a bullish theme. WTI futures traded lower again Wednesday as the pullback from $89.85, the Oct 20 high, extends. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and the recent move lower still appears to be a correction. A resumption of gains would expose the bull trigger at $92.48.
• Bund futures have continued to appreciate and the contract is trading just ahead of key resistance at 130.20, the Oct 12 high and a bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would strengthen current bullish conditions and signal scope for a stronger corrective phase. Gilt futures have held on to recent gains. A broader bearish theme remains intact and the recent recovery appears to be a correction. For bears, price has recently traded through key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low.

EURUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.0862 50.0% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0809 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 1.0764 38.2% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0694/0737 High Oct 24 / High Sep 20
• PRICE: 1.0599 @ 06:04 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 1.0517/0496 Low Nov 1/ 13
• SUP 2: 1.0448 Low Oct 03 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0374 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURUSD remains below Tuesday’s high. The outlook is bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move lower last week has reinforced a bearish theme - the Oct 24 price pattern is a bearish engulfing candle, a strong reversal signal. A resumption of weakness would open 1.0496, the Oct 13 low. The key support and bear trigger lies at 1.0448, Oct 3 low. 1.0694, the Oct 24 high, is key resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.2548 High Sep 11
• RES 3: 1.2506 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 1.2436 200-dma
• RES 1: 1.2289/2337 High Oct 24 / 11 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2181 @ 06:18 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 1.2037/28 Low Oct 04 and bear trigger / Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.1964 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1908 Low Mar 10

GBPUSD remains in consolidation mode. The trend outlook is bearish and attention is on 1.2037, Oct 4 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend that started in July and open 1.1964, a 3.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing. For bulls, a break of 1.2337, the Oct 11 high, is required to signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle and highlight a short-term base.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8754 High Oct 31
• PRICE: 0.8702 @ 06:36 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 0.8688/83 20-day EMA / Low Nov 1
• SUP 2: 0.8656/16 50-day EMA / Low Oct 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8558 Low Sep 11

The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and the pullback from Tuesday’s high appears to be a correction. Support to watch lies at the 20-day EMA, at 0.8688. The cross recently breached resistance at 0.8741, the Oct 20 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Aug 23. This signals scope for an extension towards 0.8793, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of the 20-day EMA would expose the 50-day EMA, at 0.8656.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Continues To Point North

• RES 4: 153.52 2.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 151.72 High Oct 31
• PRICE: 150.40 @ 06:47 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 149.78 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 148.81/148.28 Low Oct 30 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 147.43 Low Oct 3 and key support
• SUP 4: 146.44 Low Sep 12

USDJPY traded sharply higher Tuesday and bullish conditions remain intact. The latest pullback is likely a correction. The pair has cleared 150.78, the Oct 26 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards 152.20 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting the market's positive sentiment. On the downside, firm support lies at the 50-day EMA, at 148.28.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Conditions

• RES 4: 162.80 1.00 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 3: 162.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 161.52 2.618 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 160.85 High Oct 31
• PRICE: 159.42 @ 06:57 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 158.93/157.89 High Oct 30 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 156.98 Low Oct 16
• SUP 3: 155.83 Low Oct 4
• SUP 4: 154.46 Oct 3 and the bear trigger

The trend outlook in EURJPY remains bullish - the recovery from Monday’s low confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. This week’s gains have resulted in a break of resistance and the bull trigger, at 159.92, the Oct 24 high. 161.52, a Fibonacci projection, marks the next objective. On the downside, key short-term support lies at 157.89, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this average is required to highlight a top and the start of a correction.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6501 High Sep 29
• RES 1: 0.6445 High Oct 11
• PRICE: 0.6427 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 0.6315/0.6270 Low Oct 31 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6135 2.50 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

Short-term gains in AUDUSD are considered corrective. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and this strengthens the current bull cycle and suggests scope for a stronger correction. A continuation would expose key trend resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. On the downside, the bear trigger is 0.6270, the Oct 26 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Up

• RES 4: 1.4070 1.236 proj of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 - Oct 10 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4068 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 2022 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 1.3899 High Nov 1
• PRICE: 1.3845 @ 07:53 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 1.3790 Low Oct 26
• SUP 2: 1.3739/3634 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 1.3477 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3417 Low Sep 29

The USDCAD trend needle continues to point north and the pair is trading closer to its recent gains. Sights are on 1.3977, the Oct 13 2022 high. Last week’s break of 1.3862, Mar 10 high, strengthens the bullish condition. MA studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting an uptrend and reflecting positive market sentiment. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is 1.3739, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 131.33 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 3: 130.43 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 2: 130.20 High Oct 12 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 130.06 Intraday high
• PRICE: 129.86 @ 05:22 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 128.31/ 127.18 Low Oct 27 / 23
• SUP 2: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 125.49 0.764 proj of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Bund futures have continued to appreciate and the contract is trading just ahead of key resistance at 130.20, the Oct 12 high and a bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would strengthen current bullish conditions and signal scope for a stronger corrective phase. This would open 130.43, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support to watch is 128.31, the Oct 27 low. A break would highlight a possible reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Breaches Resistance

• RES 4: 117.610 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 117.230 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 116.966 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 downleg
• RES 1: 116.810 Intraday high
• PRICE: 116.700 @ 05:31 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 115.952 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 115.480/130 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 3: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 114.710 Low Aug 15 (cont)

The broader Bobl futures trend outlook remains bearish, however, a corrective cycle is still in play and the contract has continued to appreciate this week. Key short-term resistance at 116.500, the Oct 10 high has been cleared and this signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Scope is seen for a climb towards 116.966, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 bear leg. The 20-day EMA, at 115.952, is the first key support.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Testing Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 105.560 High Sep 1
• RES 3: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 1: 105.335 Intraday high
• PRICE: 105.285 @ 05:40 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 105.069 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 104.940/765 Low Oct 26 / Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures are trading closer to their recent gains. The broader trend outlook is bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. However, the contract has pierced resistance at 105.320, the Oct 10 high. A clear breach of this level would strengthen the short-term bullish condition and signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle. This would open 105.372, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support is at 105.069, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 96.05 High Sep 25
• RES 3: 95.66 High Oct 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 94.28/94.52 High Oct 16 / 76.4% of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg
• RES 1: 93.82 61.8% retracement of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg
• PRICE: 93.44 @ Close Nov 1
• SUP 1: 92.63 Low Nov 1
• SUP 2: 91.62/90.85 Low Oct 26 / 23
• SUP 3: 90.38 Low Oct 12 2022 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 90.00 Psychological round number

Gilt futures have held on to recent gains. A broader bearish theme remains intact and the recent recovery appears to be a correction. For bears, price has recently traded through key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for 90.38, the Oct 12 2022 low (cont) and a major support. Initial resistance is at 93.82, 61.8% of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg. The 76.4% level is at 94.52.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 113.69 76.4% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 112.53 61.8% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 111.59 50.0% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 111.17 High Oct 12 and key resistance
• PRICE: 110.82 @ Close Nov 1
• SUP 1: 108.01/107.42 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

BTP futures traded higher Wednesday and a short-term corrective cycle remains in play - for now. The trend outlook is bearish. Recent weakness resulted in a print below key support at 107.62, the Oct 4 low. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the long-term downtrend and open 107.08, a Fibonacci projection. 111.17, the Oct 12 high, marks the key resistance. A break is required to highlight a possible short-term reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Breaches The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4256.00 High Oct 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4184.40 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 4133.00 @ 05:55 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 4001.00 Low Oct 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3979.00 1.00 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low Mar 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3873.20 1.382 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading higher as the correction from recent lows extends. Price is through resistance at the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at 4184.40. The broader trend condition is bearish, however, a break of the 50-day average would signal scope for a stronger bull cycle. This would open 4256.00, the Oct 12 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger lies at 4001.0, the Oct 27 low.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4455.75 Trendline resistance drawn from the Jul 27 high
• RES 3: 4430.50 High Oct 12
• RES 2: 4355.36 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4276.29 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4262.25 @ 06:40 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: 4122.25 Low Oct 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4100.00 Round number support 4124.19
• SUP 3: 4090.35 1.764 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 4049.00 Low Mar 28

The trend condition in S&P e-minis is bearish and this week’s move higher is considered corrective. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low last week. The recent breach of support at 4235.50, Oct 4 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. MA studies are in a bear-mode position too. The focus is on 4100.00. Initial firm resistance is at 4276.29, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F4) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $100.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $98.99 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 2: $93.20 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $89.49/92.32 - High Oct 24 / 20
• PRICE: $85.43 @ 06:55 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: $84.09/82.20- Low Oct 11 / 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $81.62 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $81.02 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $78.89 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

Brent futures traded lower Wednesday. The broader trend condition is bullish and recent short-term weakness still appears to be a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising trend. Key support lies at $82.20, the Oct 6 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $93.20, the Sep 28 high. For bears, a break of $82.20, would instead highlight a short-term top and stronger reversal.

WTI TECHS: (Z3) Key Support Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: $98.27 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: $96.03 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: $92.48 - High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $85.90/89.85 - High Oct 27 / 20
• PRICE: $81.20 @ 07:06 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: $80.20 - Low Oct 6 and key support
• SUP 2: $77.74 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $75.47 - Low Jul 24
• SUP 4: $74.26 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

WTI futures traded lower again Wednesday as the pullback from $89.85, the Oct 20 high, extends. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and the recent move lower still appears to be a correction. A resumption of gains would expose the bull trigger at $92.48, the Sep 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the medium -term uptrend. For bears, a move through $80.20, the Oct 6 low, would instead highlight a short-term top.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2048.2 - High May 10
• RES 2: $2022.2 - High May 15
• RES 1: $2009.4 - High Oct 27
• PRICE: $1984.8 @ 07:10 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: $1950.4 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1928.9 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 4: $1844.3 - Low Oct 9

The Gold trend condition is unchanged - the uptrend remains intact and a short-term pullback is considered corrective. Price has recently breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The continuation higher strengthens a bullish theme and opens $2022.20 next, the May 15 high. Initial firm pivot support lies at $1928.9, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term top.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• RES 3: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 1: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $23.002 @ 07:55 GMT Nov 2
• SUP 1: $22.371 - Low Oct 17
• SUP 2: $21.573/20.689 - Low Oct 9 / 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Price has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher strengthens bullish conditions and has opened $23.774, the Sep 22 high. For bears, a reversal lower and a break of $20.689, Oct 3 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Initial support to watch is $22.371, the Oct 17 low.