MNI DATA ANALYSIS: Nov IoP, Construction Both Rise>

-UK Nov IoP +0.4% m/m; +2.5% y/y; Manufacturing +0.4% m/m; +3.5% y/y

-UK Nov Construction +0.4% m/m; +0.4% y/y

By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham

     London (MNI) - Output in both the industrial and construction 

sectors expanded in November, despite a sharp fall in motor vehicle 

production, leaving production poised to exert a positive influence on 

third quarter gross domestic product. 

     Total production rose by 0.4% in November, matching the MNI median 

forecast, after an upwardly-revised 0.2% gain in October. On an annual 

basis, production increased by 2.5%, exceeding the MNI median prediction 

of a 1.8% rise. 

     That means production could fall by 3.1% in December -- a decline 

not recorded since September of 2012 -- and still leave fourth quarter 

output on level pegging with the third quarter, according to a National 

Statistics official. 

     A 3.2% jump in energy supply accounted for nearly all of the 

increase in industrial output, contributing 0.36 percentage points to 

the total increase. 

     That countered a 7.1% plunge in motor vehicle production, the 

biggest fall since August of 2014. Production of cars earmarked for 

export buoyed industrial output in September and October. Production of 

transport equipment subtracted 0.38 percentage points from total output. 

     But manufacturing managed to remain in the black, rising by 0.4% 

between October and November, registering a 3.5% annual gain, topping 

the MNI median forecast of a 0.3% monthly gain and a 2.8% annual rise. 

     A 2.8% jump in the "Other Manufacturing and Repair" category 

accounted for much of the strength in the sector, which includes 

jewellery, musical instruments and toys. The official could provide no 

further information. 

     Over the third quarter, total output rose by 1.3%, matching the 

outturn contained in the third estimate of gross domestic production 

released last month. Production, which accounts for 14.0% of economic 

output, added 0.2 percentage points to total growth of 0.4%. 

     Meanwhile, construction output rose by 0.4% in November, rising by 

0.4% over the same period of 2016. 

     That means construction must rise by a record-high 5.1% in December 

to leave fourth quarter output on par with output in the third quarter, 

according to an official.  

     Over the third quarter, construction declined by 0.5%, in line with 

the latest estimate of GDP. Construction, which accounts for 6.1% of 

total output, exerted a neutral effect on GDP growth. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]