MNI DATA ANALYSIS: UK Dec Retail Sales Plunge After Black Friday>

-UK Dec total sales -1.5% m/m, +1.4% y/y

-UK Dec non-fuel sales -1.6% m/m, +1.3% y/y

-UK Dec retail prices +3.1% y/y Unchanged vs Nov

By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham 

     LONDON (MNI) - Retail activity plunged in December, with Black 

Friday sales pulling holiday buying into the month of November, leaving 

fourth quarter sales only slightly above their level of the previous 

three months. 

     Sales volumes fell by 1.5% between November and December, falling 

short of the median MNI median forecast of a 1.0% decline. On an annual 

basis, retail sales increased by 1.4%, well below the MNI median of a 

2.8% improvement.     

     November sales were revised to show a 1.0% gain, boosted by strong 

Black Friday sales toward the latter part of the month, down from the 

originally reported 1.1% gain. 

     That takes fourth quarter sales volumes 0.4% above their level of 

the third quarter, leaving the retail sector, which accounts for 5.4% of 

output, poised to add a modest 0.02 percentage points to gross domestic 

product in the final three months of the year. 

     With holiday sales skewed toward November in 2017, seasonal 

adjustment factors may have overstated the extent of the December fall, 

according to a National Statistics official.  

     However, aggregate figures point to a gradual slowdown in retail 

spending. The December fall was the largest for the final month of the 

year since 2010. Sales volumes grew by just 1.9% in 2017, the weakest 

expansion since 2013 and the first deceleration in sales since 2010. 

     A surge in internet sales cited by retailers was not entirely borne 

out by official data. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, internet sales 

values comprised 17.2% of total activity. That's up from 16.7% in 

November, but below the record high of over 18% touched in June. 

     The implied price deflator rose by 3.1% in the year to December, 

matching the November rise, the fourteenth straight increase, but below 

the peak of 3.3% recorded in September. 

     Excluding fuel, sales slumped by 1.6% last month, rising by 1.3% 

compared with December of 2016, below the MNI median forecast of a 0.8% 

monthly slide and a 2.8% annual improvement. 

     November non-fuel sales were also weaker than originally reported, 

rising by a revised 1.1% from October, down from the originally-reported 

as up 1.2% between October and November. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]