MNI DATA ANALYSIS: UK Jan Retail Rebounds; Q4 Revised Higher>

-UK Jan total sales +1.0% m/m, +4.2% y/y in Dec

-UK Q4 sales  revised to 0.0 q/q from -0.2% previously 

-UK Jan retail prices +0.4% y/y, lowest since Nov 2016

By Laurie Laird and Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - Retail sales volumes rebounded smartly in January, 

driven largely by internet activity, while dismal fourth quarter sales 

were revised upward, suggesting a potential improvement in household 

spending in later iterations of gross domestic product. 

     Sales jumped by 1.0% in the month of January, rising by 4.2% over 

the same period a year earlier, outpacing the MNI median forecast of a 

0.2% monthly gain and a 3.4% annual rise. 

     December sales were revised to show a 0.7% decrease, better than 

the originally-reported 0.9% fall, leaving fourth quarter sales 

unchanged over the previous three months, better than the 

initially-reported 0.2% fall. 

     That revision was not included in fourth quarter GDP data released 

on Monday, suggesting that household expenditure could be revised upward 

from the originally-recorded 0.4% gain. Retail sales account for 

approximately 20% of household spending, according to a National 

Statistics official. 

     Internet sales provided much of the January strength, rising by 

3.4% in value terms, reversing a 2.4% decline in December. That lifted 

internet sales to a joint-record-high 18.3% of total sales, up from 

17.9% in December. 

     However, it appears that discounting played a role in supporting 

online sales, with the implied annual price deflator for non-store 

retailing recording no change between December and January, the weakest 

since November of 2016. Clothing and footwear prices were particularly 

weak at -0.9% y/y, the lowest reading since August 2016. 

     That kept broader retail prices in check, with the implied deflator 

for total sales increasing by just 0.4%, also the smallest rise since 

November of 2016. 

     Excluding fuel, sales rose by 1.2% last month, or by 4.1% compared 

with January of 2018, exceeding the MNI median forecast of a 0.2% 

increase on the month and a 3.1% annual gain. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]