MNI DATA ANALYSIS: UK Sept-Nov Employment Up; Real Wages Fall>

-UK Sept-Nov Employment +102,000; employment rate up to 75.3%

-UK Sept-Nov Real Regular Earnings -0.5% 3m/year-ago vs -0.4% Aug-Oct

-UK Sept-Nov Real Total Earnings -0.2% 3m/year-ago vs -0.2% Aug-Oct

-UK Sept-Nov LFS Unemployment Rate 4.3% vs 4.3% Aug-Oct

     By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham 

     London (MNI) - UK employment rose by more than expected in the 

three months to November, reversing two periods of decline, but nominal 

wage growth stagnated, leaving inflation-adjusted wages in negative 

territory. 

     Employment rose by 102,000 to a record-high 32.2 million, compared 

to the median MNI forecast of a 20,000 decline, after a decrease of 

56,000 in the three months to October. 

     That took the employment rate to a joint-record-high of 75.3%, up 

from 75.1% in the three months to August. 

     Joblessness, as measured by the Labour Force Survey, remained at 

4.3% between September and November, in line with the MNI median 

forecast, unchanged from the three months to October, matching the 

lowest level of unemployment since the three months to June of 1975. 

     The outturn was consistent with the 4.3% jobless rate forecast of 

Bank of England staff for the three months to November, as published in 

the November Quarterly Inflation report. 

     Unemployment declined by 3,000 between September and November, to 

1.44 million, as the inactivity rate slipped to a record-low 21.2%, 

reversing two straight periods of decline. A 40,000 fall in the level of 

workers on long-term sick leave accounted for much of the improvement in 

labour participation. 

     However, earnings remain stagnant, despite the apparent strength of 

the jobs market, with real wages declining again in the latest three 

months, after dipping into negative territory earlier last year. This 

meant total real wages have sat in the red for eight straight months. 

     Total weekly earnings increased by an annual pace of 2.5% in the 

three months to November, matching the MNI median forecast and the 2.5% 

gain in the previous three months. 

     But with inflation touching 3.1% in November, real wages, including 

bonuses, actually declined by 0.2% in the latest period.

     In the month of November, total earnings rose by an annual rate of 

2.3%, but real wages declined by 0.4% over the same month of 2016. 

     Excluding bonuses, regular earnings, before adjusting for 

inflation, improved by an annual pace of 2.4% in the three months to 

November, exceeding the MNI median of a 2.3% gain, up from 2.3% in the 

previous period. Price-adjusted regular earnings fell by 0.5% over the 

same period a year earlier.  

     Regular earnings rose by an annual rate of 2.4% in the month of 

November, but fell by an annual rate of 0.5% in real terms. 

     Job vacancies rose by 17,000 to 810,00, the highest since the 

series began in 2001.

     The jobless rate fell at 4.3% in the month of November, according 

to experimental data, from 4.4% in October. 

     The more up-to-date claimant count rose by 8,600 in December 

leaving the associated unemployment rate at 2.4%, up from 2.3% in 

November. 

     The claimant count for November was revised to show a 12,200 rise, 

compared to the 5,900 gain reported last month. 

 -London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

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