MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US December CPI Down 0.1%, Core Up 0.2%>

--Overall CPI Slows To +1.9% Y/Y, Core Remains At +2.2% Y/Y 

By Kevin Kastner, Shikha Dave, and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI data suggest that consumer inflation was 

steady in December, with the headline measure slightly above 

expectations, the core measure in line with expectations, and the 

year/year rate for the overall measure at 1.9%, down from 2.2% in 

November, data released Friday morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 

showed. 

     Overall CPI posted a decline of 0.1%, just above analysts' 

expectations for a 0.2% decline in the month, but below the flat reading 

expected by market participants. The core CPI rose 0.2%, matching 

expectations for a 0.2% increase. MNI analysis released Thursday showed 

a tendency by analysts to be very accurate at predicting CPI. Today's 

data continue that trend. 

     Unrounded, the month/month decline for overall CPI was 0.057%, 

putting the value on the high side of the 0.1% decline, and the 

unrounded increase for core CPI was 0.210%, on the high side of a 0.2% 

increase. 

--OVERALL YEAR/YEAR PRICES LOWEST SINCE AUGUST 2017 

     Overall, the data point to contained consumer inflation, as the 

year/year rate for the overall measure fell to 1.9% from 2.2% in 

November, the lowest since August 2017. The year/year rate for core CPI 

was unchanged from 2.2% last month. CPI excluding only energy was up 

2.1% year/year, showing the impact of soft energy prices.  

--OWNERS EQUIVALENT RENTS UP, NEW VEHICLES PRICES FLAT 

     The large owners' equivalent rents category rose 0.2% and medical 

care was up 0.3%. However, used vehicle prices fell 0.2% after sharp 

gains in the previous two months, and apparel prices and new vehicles 

prices were both flat on the month. 

     Energy prices fell by 3.5% in the month after a 2.2% decline in 

November, the largest decline since February 2016. Gasoline prices 

declined 7.5% and fuel oil prices fell 11.4%. Electricity prices were up 

0.7% and gas utilities prices were up 5.6% to provide some offset. CPI 

excluding only energy was up 0.2%. 

     The FOMC said it the minutes of it's last meeting that some 

participants believe the impact of low energy prices to be temporary. 

     Food prices rose 0.4% in December, with food at home prices up 0.3% 

and food away from home prices up 0.4%. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

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