MNI DATA ANALYSIS:US December Housing Starts Falls To 1.192m SAAR>

--Initial Jobless Claims Falls 41,000 to 220,000

--Claims Four-Week Moving Average Falls 6,250 to 244,500 

--Dec Building Permits -0.1% To 1.302 Mln SAAR

By Sara Haire and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The pace of housing starts posted a 8.2% decline 

to a 1.192 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in December, a 

surprise to analysts surveyed by MNI expecting a 1.275 million pace, 

data reported by the Commerce Department Thursday morning showed.  

     Housing starts fell 14.2% in the South region, reflecting a 

slowdown post-hurricanes. In addition to the decline in the 

South, all other regions saw declines. The Northeast saw a 4.3% 

decline, the Midwest a 2.2% drop, and the West a mild 0.9% fall. 

     Building permits fell 0.1% in the month to 1.302 million, above the 

1.293 million expected. Homes permitted but not started rose 1.3%. 

Single-family permits authorized increased 1.8% to 881k, the highest 

level seen since August 2007. This suggests starts could pickup in 

December. However, multi-family permits saw a 3.9% decline, which did 

offset the gain of single-family.  

     Housing starts of single-family homes fell by 11.8% in December 

after a 6.9% increase in the previous month. Starts of multi-family 

homes increased 1.4% after a 6.1% fall in November, based on an MNI 

calculation. 

--OUTLOOK POSITIVE FOR NEW HOUSES

     The pace of unadjusted starts stands at 2.4% above its year ago 

level, a sign that home building has increased. The NAHB index for 

January fell slightly to 72 from the 18-year high of 74, reported on 

Wednesday. The NAHB attributed to a continued positive outlook despite 

rising building material prices and labor shortages. 

     Despite the decline in December starts and the upward revisions to 

the previous months, the fourth quarter average for starts was 6.7% 

higher from the third quarter average, while permits were 5.2% higher, 

indicating still strong growth in the house building business.  

--CLAIMS DATA SURPRISES

     Also released on Thursday, initial jobless claims fell by 41,000 to 

220,000 in the January 13 week, well below the 250,000 level expected 

and hitting the lowest level since February 24, 1973. Claims tend to be 

volatile around the holidays due to the movements of seasonal workers, 

so analysts tend to view them cautiously. 

     The four-week moving average fell 6,250 to 244,500 and will likely 

fall again next week as the 247,000 level in the December 23 week drops 

out. 

     Continuing claims rose by 76,000 to 1.952 million in the 

January 6 week, further indicating the volatility of the holidays. 

     Labor said that claims taking procedures are still disrupted in the 

Virgin Islands. Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Kentucky, Maine, Puerto 

Rico, Virginia, and Wyoming all had estimates for their claim data, 

perhaps indicating a significant revision next week. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]