MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fall 1,000 In June 2 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Wk Average +2,750 To 225,500

By Kevin Kastner and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 1,000 to 222,000 in the June 2 week, very slightly ahead of the 

221,000 level expected by analysts in an MNI survey, data released by 

the Labor Department Thursday showed. 

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, which tends to be 

a better measure of the underlying trend of the data, rose by 2,750 to 

225,500 in the June 2 week, but remains fairly low even with the 

late-April dips out of the equation. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average would be little changed as the 223,000 level in the May 12 week 

rolls out of the calculation, keeping the average below its year ago 

level. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 5.4%, or 

10,910, in unadjusted claims in the holiday-shortened week. Instead, 

unadjusted claims fell by 11,669 (5.8%) to 191,177. The current week's 

level was well below the 212,696 level in the comparable week a year 

ago. 

     Claims were only estimated in Maine after a number of states were 

estimated in the previous week. There are still issues with data 

collection in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS RISE, 4-WK AVERAGE STILL DIPS 

     The level of continuing claims rose by 21,000 to 1.741 million in 

the May 26 week. Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims fell by 

5,215 to 1.569 million, well below the 1.751 million level seen in the 

comparable week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, a more reliable 

measure when the continuing claims are rapidly moving week-to-week, fell 

by 13,250 to 1.729 million, hitting another low point since 1973. 

However, the average could possibly rebound next week when a 1.712 

million level in the May 5 week rolls out of the calculation. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate stayed at 1.2% in 

the May 26 week, down from 1.4% in the same week a year earlier and an 

indication of how low the level of insured unemployment stands. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]