MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fall 17,000 In Jan 5 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Week Average Rises 2,500 To 221,750 

By Harrison Clarke and Shikha Dave

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 17,000 to 216,000 in the January 5 week, below expectations for 

a 220,000 level, data released by the Labor Department Thursday showed. 

     The level of claims was revised up slightly to 233,000 in the 

December 29 week from the previously reported 231,000 level. Overall, 

the data suggest seasonal adjustment difficulties. 

--CLAIMS TRENDING UPWARDS

     A better measure for the underlying trend of the data is the 

four-week moving average for initial claims. The average rose by 2,500 

to 221,750 in the January 5 week.

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average would fall by 250 as the 217,000 level in the December 15 week 

rolls out of the calculation. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an increase of 14.9%, or 

48,717 in unadjusted claims. However, claims actually posted an increase 

of 6.5%, or 21,208, to 348,709. The current week's level was below the 

403,619 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS FALL

     The level of continuing claims fell by 28,000 to 1.722 million in 

the December 29 week. Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims rose 

by 281,123 to 2.080 million, remaining well below the 2.302 million 

level seen in the comparable week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a  

more reliable measure as continuing claims consistently fluctuate 

week-to-week, rose by 15,250 to 1.721 million. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% 

in the December 29 week, down from 1.3% in the same week a year earlier, 

reinforcing that the level of insured unemployment is extremely low. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]