MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fall 23,000 To 259,000>

--Texas Claims -23,549 NSA, Florida +5,133 NSA, Puerto Rico +2,245

By Kevin Kastner and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 23,000 to 259,000 in the September 16 employment survey week, 

well below the 305,000 level expected and suggesting some displaced 

workers have not been able to file yet, data released by the Labor 

Department Thursday showed. 

     Claims were up 27,000 from the level of 232,000 in the August 12 

employment survey week, so there is an impact from the hurricanes on the 

claims data, and by extension the payrolls figures. However, that impact 

is not as large as it could have been if the full impact of Florida 

claims were seen. 

     Unadjusted filings in Texas fell by 23,549, a second straight 

decline. However, unadjusted filings in Florida more than doubled, 

rising by 5,133 to 9,906 in the current week from 4,773 in the previous 

week. Also, filings in Puerto Rico rose 2,245 to 2,528 from only 283 in 

the previous week. 

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, a better measure 

of the underlying trend of the data, rose by 6,000 to 268,750 in the 

September 16 week, up 28,250 from the 240,500 level in the August 12 

survey week. The four-week average should continue this upward trend as 

the headline number rebounds in the coming weeks, but in two weeks the 

large 298,000 level in September 2 week will roll out of the calculation 

and the average could reverse. 

     Even if the number of headline claims does not change next week, a 

very unlikely scenario, and there are no revisions to data from the past 

four weeks, the four-week average will rise by 5,750 as the 236,000 

level in the August 26 week rolls out of the calculation. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an increase of 8.8%, or 

18,607, in unadjusted claims after a dip in the holiday-shortened 

September 9 week. Instead, unadjusted claims rose by only 13 to 212,297. 

The current week's level is only modestly ahead of the 205,649 level in 

the comparable week a year ago. 

     The level of continuing claims rose by 44,000 to 1.980 million in 

the September 9 week, finally reflecting the increase in initial claims. 

Continuing claims would be expected to rise in the coming weeks as many 

displaced workers will be on this assistance for quite some time. The 

addition of claims from Florida and other areas affected by Hurricane 

Irma will only add to this total. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 

1.4% in the September 9 week for the 23rd straight week. The current 

week's rate is down from 1.5% in the same week a year earlier. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]