MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fall 3,000 In Jan 12 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Week Average Falls 1,000 To 220,750 

By Harrison Clarke and Shikha Dave

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 3,000 to 213,000 in the January 12 survey week, below 

expectations for a 218,000 level, data released by the Labor Department 

Thursday showed. 

     The level of claims was down 4,000 from the 217,000 level in the 

December 15 employment survey week, a positive factor for the employment 

data. The level of claims was unrevised from the 216,000 level 

previously reported for the January 5 week. Initial claims for federal 

employees filing in federal programs rose by 5,694 to 10,454 in the 

January 5 week, compared to 1,148 in the prior year. This number could 

rise as the US government shutdown continues.  

--CLAIMS TRENDING DOWN

     A better measure for the underlying trend of the data is the 

four-week moving average for initial claims. The average fell by 1,000 

to 220,750 in the January 12 week, down by 2,000 from the 222,750 level 

in the December 15 week. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average would fall by 2,000 as the 221,000 level in the December 22 week 

rolls out of the calculation. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an increase of 0.6%, or 

1,941 in unadjusted claims. However, claims actually posted a decrease 

of 0.9%, or 3,215 to 344,916. The current week's level was below the 

354,050 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS RISE

     The level of continuing claims rose by 18,000 to 1.737 million in 

the January 5 week. Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims rose 

by 95,601 to 2.172 million, below the 2.416 million level seen in the 

comparable week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a  

more reliable measure as continuing claims consistently fluctuate 

week-to-week, rose by 8,000 to 1.729 million. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 

1.2% in the January 5 week, down from 1.4% in the same week a year 

earlier, reinforcing that the level of insured unemployment is extremely 

low. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]