MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fall 9,000 to 221,000>

--Four-Week Average Down 10,000, Low Since 1973; Could Rise Next Week

By Kevin Kastner

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 9,000 in the February 3 week to 221,000, when analysts had 

expected claims to rise modestly to 232,000, data released by the Labor 

Department Thursday showed. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 6.3%, or 

16,822, in unadjusted claims. Those claims actually fell by 27,130 to 

240,636. The current week's level was well below the 259,713 level a 

year ago. 

--FOUR-WEEK AVERAGE DROPS     

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, a better measure 

of the underlying trend of the data during periods of volatility, fell 

by 10,000 to 224,500 in the February 3 week as the 261,000 level in the 

January 6 week rolled out of the equation. This marks the fourth 

straight decline and the lowest point since March 1973. 

     The average is now significantly below its recent peak of 250,750 in 

the January 6 week, which covered most of December. If the number of 

headline claims does not change next week and there are no revisions to 

data from the past four weeks, the four-week average will rise by 1,250 

as the recent low point of 216,000 in the January 13 week rolls out of 

the calculation. This would keep the average well below its levels a 

month earlier. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS FALL

     The level of seasonally adjusted continuing claims fell by 33,000 

to 1.923 million in the January 27 week after rising to 1.956 million in 

the previous week. The level remains significantly lower than a year 

earlier. 

     The four-week moving average for continuing claims rose by 12,500 

to 1.946 million in the January 27 week, as a 1.873 million level in the 

December 30 week dropped out. 

     Unadjusted continuing claims fell by 70,297 to 2.306 million in the 

week and remained below the 2.483 million level a year earlier. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 

1.4%, down slightly from 1.5% in the same week a year earlier. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]