MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fell 9,000 To 233,000>

--Import Prices Flat; Ex Fuels +0.2%; Ex-Petro +0.1%

--Initial Claims Four-Week Average +1,750 To 230,000; Still Low

By Kevin Kastner and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 9,000 to 233,000 in the April 7 week, slightly ahead of the 

230,000 level expected by analysts in an MNI survey, data released by 

the Labor Department Thursday showed. 

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, which tends to be 

a better measure of the underlying trend of the data, rose by 1,750 to 

230,000 in the April 7 week, a fourth straight increase. Even so, the 

level of the four-week average remains very low.

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average will rise by 1,500 as the 227,000 level in the March 17 week 

rolls out of the calculation. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an increase of 19.6%, or 

39,473, in unadjusted claims in the post-holiday week. Instead, 

unadjusted claims rose by 30,392 (15.1%) to 231,388. The current week's 

level remains below the 239,823 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

     The only states where claims were estimated were Colorado and 

Maine. However, the claims taking procedures in the Virgin Islands and 

Puerto Rico have still not returned to normal.   

--CONTINUING CLAIMS REBOUND

     The level of continuing claims rose by 53,000 to 1.871 million in 

the March 31 week after falling by 58,000 in the previous week, 

continuing its up and down trend. Before seasonal adjustment, continuing 

claims fell by 8,544 to 1.995 million, well below the 2.137 million 

level seen in the comparable week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, a more reliable 

measure when the continuing claims are rapidly moving week-to-week, fell 

by 1,500 to 1.850 million, the lowest point since the January 5, 1974 

week, when it was 1.839 million.

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained at 1.3% 

in the March 31 week. The current week's rate is down slightly from 1.4% 

in the same week a year earlier. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

--IMPORT PRICES FLAT, FUELS DOWN

     Also released on Thursday, the BLS reported that import prices 

were flat in March following gains in the previous seven months, as 

energy price declines were offset by gains in other categories.

     Overall fuel prices fell by 1.6%, with petroleum prices down 1.3% 

and natural gas prices down 9.5%. 

     Import prices were up 0.1% excluding petroleum and were up 0.2% 

excluding all fuels. There were gains in March for industrial supplies 

excluding fuels, capital goods, and foods, feeds and beverages. These 

were partially offset by declines in prices of autos and consumer goods.

     Overall import prices were up 3.6% year/year, while prices 

excluding fuels were up 2.1% year/year and prices excluding petroleum 

were up 2.1% year/year. These gains suggest some inflation pressures 

from imports and are well above the year/year rates posted last summer 

before the string of monthly gains. However, they are generally in line 

with the 12-month gains in recent months.

     Import prices were up from France, the UK, Mexico, China, and 

Japan, but declined from Canada and Germany. 

     Total export prices rose 0.3% in March as agricultural export 

prices jumped by 3.4%. Export prices excluding agriculture saw a 0.1% 

decrease. Export prices were up 3.4% from a year earlier, both including 

and excluding agriculture. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]