MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Jump 62,000 To 298,000>

--Texas Claims +51,637 NSA, Louisiana +258; Both Actual Reported Data

--Claims Level Likely To Surge Further in Coming Weeks On Harvey, Irma 

--Nonfarm Productivity Revised Up To +1.5%, ULC Revised Down To +0.2%

By Kevin Kastner, Holly Stokes, and Sara Haire

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment 

benefits surged by 62,000 to 298,000 in the September 2 week, well above 

the 248,000 level expected and the highest level since the April 

18, 2015 week, data released by the Labor Department Thursday showed. 

     The level of claims clearly indicates the beginning of a spike in 

Texas claims filings resulting from Hurricane Harvey, with further gains 

likely to come next week and there after. The addition of Hurricane 

Irma, which is expected to slam into Florida over the weekend, will add 

more to that total in a few weeks. 

     Unadjusted claims rose by 51,637 in Texas in the September 2 week, 

while claims in Louisiana, which was also impact, rose by 258. Both of 

these states were able to report actual claims data rather than having 

to estimate it. 

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, a better measure 

of the underlying trend of the data, rose by 13,500 to 250,250 in the 

September 2 week, breaking a string of declines. The four-week average 

will continue this upward trend as the headline number rises. Even if 

the number of headline claims does not change next week, a very unlikely 

scenario, and there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, 

the four-week average will rise by 16,500 as the 232,000 level in the 

August 12 week rolls out of the calculation. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an increase of 1.3%, or 

2,601, in unadjusted claims in the week. Instead, unadjusted claims 

surged by 53,999 to 250,226. The current week's level was well ahead of 

the 217,715 level in the comparable week a year ago, though the 

hurricane accounts for the deterioration. 

     The level of continuing claims fell by 5,000 to 1.940 million in 

the August 26 week, while the four-week moving average for continuing 

claims fell by 4,000 to 1.948 million. The impact of Hurricane Harvey 

and later Hurricane Irma should start to be seen in the level of 

continuing claims in the coming weeks. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 

1.4% in the August 26 week for the 21st straight week. The current 

week's rate is down from 1.6% in the same week a year earlier. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     In other data released, second quarter nonfarm productivity was 

revised up to a 1.5% rate of growth from a 0.9% gain previously 

reported, while unit labor costs were revised down to a 0.2% pace of 

growth from the 0.6% rise in the preliminary estimate. 

     In addition, first quarter unit labor cost growth was revised down 

to a 4.8% rate of growth from the 5.4% gain previously reported. 

Productivity was unrevised in the first quarter, remaining at a 0.1% 

gain. 

     Second quarter output growth was revised up to a 4.0% pace from the 

3.4% preliminary estimate, while hours worked growth was unrevised at a 

2.5% rate. 

     Even after the revision, second quarter unit labor costs remain 

0.2% below their year ago levels after a 0.7% year/year gain in the 

first quarter. 

     The year/year pace of productivity growth was revised up to a 1.3% 

rate from 1.2% pace in the preliminary estimate. Productivity was up 

1.2% year/year in the first quarter. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]