MNI DATA IMPACT: Canada June Jobs +953k, U-Rate Falls to 12.3%

By Greg Quinn

     OTTAWA (MNI) - Canadian employment rose a record 953,000 in June to win

back more of the 3 million jobs lost when Covid-19 shutdowns took hold, and

unemployment eased to 12.3% from May's record high of 13.7%, data released by

Statistics Canada Friday showed.

     It's the second month in a row with an upside surprise, beating the median

forecast of 675,000, following May's unexpected 290,000 increase. The jobless

rate is still near the pre-pandemic record of 13.1%, and employment remains 9.2%

below where it was in February, StatsCan said.

     Further progress will be more difficult with the May and June figures

reflecting the re-opening of many businesses in Canada's two most populous

provinces, Ontario and Quebec. Finance Minister Bill Morneau warned Wednesday

the job market faces Covid-19 setbacks that may further balloon the biggest

deficit as a share of the economy since World War II. The BOC's policy meeting

on July 15 will likely affirm Governor Tiff Macklem's view the economy needs

more QE to get the economy out of a "deep hole." 

     --SIDE EVIDENCE

     Statistics Canada broke out other figures to assess the status of people

who were sent home because of health rules and may or may not have a job to go

back to soon:

     --"The number of Canadians who were employed but worked less than half

their usual hours for reasons likely related to COVID-19 dropped by 823,000 in

June. Combined with declines recorded in May, this left absences from work 1.4

million above pre-COVID levels."

     --"Approximately 2.5 million Canadians were unemployed in June, a decrease

of 167,000 (-6.4%) from May but more than double the February level (1.1

million)."

     --"After holding steady in May, the number of people on temporary layoff

fell by 29.1% (-347,000) in June."

     --The labor force participation rate rose 2.4pp to 63.8%, approaching the

pre-pandemic level of 65.5%.

     --"In June, more than one-quarter (28.3%) of Canadians aged 15 to 69

reported receiving some kind of federal income assistance payment since March

15."

--MNI Ottawa Bureau; +1 613-314-9647; email: greg.quinn@marketnews.com

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