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(M1) Bullish Focus

MNI (London)
--Japan Q4 GDP Rev -1.8% Q/Q; Prelim -1.6%; MNI Median -1.7% 
--Japan Q4 Annualized GDP Rev -7.1% Vs -6.3%; MNI Median -6.8% 
--Japan Q4 Capex Rev -4.6% Q/Q; Prelim -3.7%; Median -4.7% 
--Japan Q4 Capex Contribution Revised At -0.7 Point Vs. -0.6 pt
--Japan G4 Private consumption -2.8% Q/Q Vs. -2.9%; Median -2.8% 
--Japan Q4 Net Export Contribution Unrevised +0.5 Pct Point
     TOKYO (MNI) - Japan's economy contracted at a faster pace than initially
estimated in the October-December quarter, with business investment weaker than
first reported, revised data released by the Cabinet Office Monday showed.
     The economy contracted 1.8% q/q, or an annualized 7.1%, in Q4, weighed down
by weaker capital investment and sluggish private consumption.
     The main points of note include:
     --Real Q4 GDP was revised down from the preliminary estimate of -1.6% on
quarter and an annualized 6.3%, weaker than the MNI median forecast of -1.7%
q/q, or annualized -6.8%, drop.
     --The downward revision came mainly from lower capital investment, revised
down to a 4.6% fall from a preliminary -3.7%. There was a 0.2% rise in Q3.
     --The contribution to overall GDP from capital investment was revised down
to -0.7 percentage point from -0.6 pp initially.
     --Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP, was revised to
-2.8% (prelim -2.9%) q/q. It pushed overall GDP lower by a revised rounded -1.5
pp vs. -1.6 pp.
     --The contribution of net exports -- exports minus imports -- was unrevised
at +0.5 percentage point.
     --The contribution of private-sector inventories to total domestic output
was revised to 0.0 percentage point from +0.1 percentage point and the GDP
contribution of public investment was also revised to 0.0 pp from +0.1 pp.
     --Japan's economy may contract in Q1 again, weighed by the drop in weak
exports and production as well as private consumption as the coronavirus impact
picks up, with Bank of Japan economists expecting   exports, production and
private consumption, to remain weak.
     --Those officials still hold the baseline scenario based on the view by the
International Monetary Fund that China's economy is expected to return to normal
in the April-June quarter.
     --However, the yen's rise to JPY103 level is increasing downside risks to
economic activity and prices.
     --The average economist forecast for Q1 GDP growth is annualized at +0.33%,
according to the latest monthly ESP Survey of 35 economists by the Japan Center
for Economic Research conducted from January 28 to February 5.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-2175-0040; email:
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email:
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