MNI DATA PREVIEW: US May Retail Sales Seen +0.7%; +0.4% Ex MV

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Analysts are expecting headline May retail sales to

rebound by 0.7% and ex-motor vehicle sales to rise by 0.4% based on an MNI

survey and the Bloomberg consensus. Forecast history shows a very slight

tendency by analysts to underestimate May headline sales and overestimate ex.

motor vehicle sales, but not enough to be certain. 

     Here a few points to keep in mind:

     --Analysts have shown a slight tendency to underestimate May headline

retail sales in the past 20 years of data, with 10 underestimates and 9

overestimates, with the average overestimate slightly larger due to an outlier

in May 2010. 

     --In the past 20 years, analysts have overestimated ex. auto sales 9 times

and underestimated 8 times. The average overestimate is 0.5% and the average

underestimate is 0.3%, again due to an outlying overestimate in May 2010.

Without that miss, the average overestimate is 0.4%, still larger than the

average underestimate. The data suggest some modest risk of downside surprise,

especially given an expected soft reading for gasoline station sales.

     --The Consumer Price Index for gasoline fell by 0.5% in May after solid

gains in the previous three months. The CPI for gasoline tracks remarkably well

with the gas station sales component of the retail report, so the CPI reading

signals a probable diminished contribution from gas station sales. 

     --Data gathered by MNI from major auto manufacturers indicated that auto

sales did well in May, with a gain of 7.0%, an upside risk for headline retail

and retail auto sales. If retail auto sales post a similar gain in the report,

it would constitute a large rebound from the 1.1% decline posted in last month's

report. 

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MAUPR$,M$U$$$]