MNI DATA PREVIEW: US Payrolls Seen Rising to 163k From 144k

--Unemployment Rate Expected At 3.5%, Matching Record Low

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to grow by 163k in

January, rebounding from a seven-month low of 145k in December and keeping

unemployment at a half-century low. 

     Private payrolls are expected to grow by 150k, up from December's 139k

increase, according to Bloomberg's median estimate, and the jobless rate is seen

holding at 3.5% for a third month.

     Gains in the service industry and the end of the worst manufacturing

downturn since the last recession signal faster hiring to start 2020. The solid

job market helps Fed officials argue their three rate cuts last year are enough

to keep the economy in a "good place," even with global pressures from trade

disputes to the coronavirus outbreak.

     Average hourly earnings growth will quicken to 0.3% in January from 0.1% in

December, according to the Bloomberg consensus, while the average workweek

remains at 34.3 hours. 

     The Employment Situation Summary to be released on Friday may also include

a boost from 2020 Census hiring, which could increase January payrolls by

15,000, foreshadowing more hires expected to come in the spring.

     Revisions to ADP employment data showed private employment for January

gaining 291,000. That figure may be overstated somewhat because firms often make

annual layoffs in the first few months of the year, and because unseasonably

warm weather may have given a fleeting boost to construction, leisure and

hospitality.

     Manufacturing, which makes up around one-third of U.S. GDP, is growing

again for the first time in six months and job cuts are at a slower pace

according to ISM figures. The ISM services index showed continued growth overall

and for hiring, with the survey's chief telling MNI that a shortage of workers

is making it hard to add new staff. 

     The January report will also include the Labor Department's annual revision

to previously released data, expected to soften the cumulative job gains over

2019. A preliminary report from August showed the benchmark revision would cause

a downward adjustment to March 2019 nonfarm employment of 501,000.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com

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