MNI DATA PREVIEW: US Retails Seen Holding at +0.3%; Core Slows

By Brooke Migdon

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - U.S. retail sales are expected to rise for the fourth

consecutive month in January, with near record low unemployment and higher

consumer confidence boosting auto purchases.

     Sales should rise 0.3% according to the Bloomberg economist median. That

would match the pace of the past three reports. The headline rate holds steady

as gasoline prices fell 0.7% in January while BEA figures show auto sales

rebounded with a 1.1% gain on the month. 

     Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales growth will slow to 0.3% according

to the Bloomberg consensus from 0.7% in December. 

     Consumer sales were up 5.8% from a year earlier in December, the fastest

pace since August 2018, reflecting the strongest job market in half a century.

The January job report was also strong with bigger-than-expected payroll gains

and average hourly annual wage gains rising 3.1%.

     Fed Chair Jerome Powell told Congress this week that fundamentals

supporting household spending remain solid and signaled he won't add to last

year's three rate cuts unless there is a material change to the outlook, even

after China's coronavirus outbreak. 

     Consumer confidence accelerated in January, with the Conference Board's

measure rising 3.4 points to 131.6 from an upwardly revised 128.2 in December.

Similarly, the smaller University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 0.5

points to 99.8.

     Retail sales excluding motor vehicle and gas sales are also projected to

increase 0.3% after rising 0.5% in December.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com

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