MNI DATA SURVEY: UK PSNB Ex, CBI, Gfk Sentiment and Q1 GDP Est

By Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - It would appear that analysts are divided when it comes to

UK Q1GDP. Whilst the median estimate argues in favour of 0.3% Q/Q growth, seven

out of the eighteen responses believe the "Beast from the East" is not to be

ignored and estimate a Q/Q growth of 0.2%. It is also worth noting is that one

of the 0.3% estimates were cognisant that the poor weather may impact this

estimate downward to 0.2%.

     The impact of the disagreement meant y/y growth was fairly varied but the

median estimate suggests a y/y% growth rate of GDP of 1.3% and a q/q% growth

rate of 0.3%. 

                       First GDP  First GDP

-------------------------------------------

                        Estimate   Estimate

                            rate       rate

                           % Q/Q      % Y/Y

Date Out                  27-Apr     27-Apr

Median                      0.30       1.30

Forecast High                0.3        1.5

Forecast Low                 0.2        1.1

Standard Deviation           0.1        0.1

Count                         18         11

Prior                        0.4        1.4

Bayern                       0.3        N/A

Barclays                     0.3        1.5

Berenberg                    0.3        N/A

Capital Economics            0.3        1.4

Credit Suisse                0.3        N/A

Commerzbank                  0.2        N/A

Daiwa Capital Markets        0.2        1.3

Investec                     0.2        1.3

JP Morgan                    0.3        1.3

LBBW                         0.3        N/A

Lloyds TSB                   0.3        1.4

Morgan Stanley               0.2        1.1

Nomura                       0.3        1.4

Oxford Economics             0.3        1.4

Pantheon                     0.2        N/A

Scotia                       0.3        N/A

Societe Generale             0.2        1.3

UniCredit                    0.2        1.3

     Public Sector net finances excluding public banks would need to increase by

stg3.8 billion in March in order to be in line with the OBR's revised forecast

last March. However, analysts anticipated not only this forecast to be met but

for the public sector net borrowing excluding public banks to be stg0.9 billion

lower than this figure with median estimates pencilled in at stg2.90 billion. 

                    Public Finances-

------------------------------------

                             PSNB ex

                              stg bn

Date Out                      24-Apr

Median                          2.90

Forecast High                    4.1

Forecast Low                     1.1

Standard Deviation               1.0

Count                             11

Prior                            1.3

Barclays                         4.0

Capital Economics                2.5

Credit Suisse                    1.1

Investec                         2.0

JP Morgan                        4.1

Lloyds TSB                       1.9

Morgan Stanley                   3.5

Nomura                           3.8

Oxford Economics                 2.9

Pantheon                         2.5

Societe Generale                 3.0

     In line with MNI analysis, consumer sentiment does not appear to be showing

signs of significant recovery. From a prior March index value of -7.0, median

estimates see the Gfk consumer sentiment index contracting to -7.5. This is

likely down to squeezed households using their now positive real wages to

replenish depleted savings. 

                          GfK

-----------------------------

                     Consumer

                    Sentiment

Date Out               27-Apr

Median                  -7.50

Forecast High            -5.0

Forecast Low             -9.0

Standard Deviation        1.6

Count                       6

Prior                    -7.0

Barclays                 -9.0

Capital Economics        -5.0

Investec                 -7.0

Lloyds TSB               -8.0

Oxford Economics         -6.0

Societe Generale         -9.0

     One expected bright spot is the April CBI Industrial Trends Survey. All

analysts excluding one anticipated an increase in the retail sales balance

growth with the one analyst that didn't, expecting an unchanged growth rate.

                    CBI Industrial Trends Survey

------------------------------------------------

                            Retail Sales Balance

                                               %

Date Out                                  24-Apr

Median                                      6.00

Forecast High                               10.0

Forecast Low                                 2.0

Standard Deviation                           3.7

Count                                          4

Prior                                        4.0

Capital Economics                            8.0

Nomura                                      10.0

Oxford Economics                             4.0

Pantheon                                     2.0

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]