MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 8 July, 2024

• The Netherlands, Austria, Germany and Italy all look to hold auctions in the upcoming week, whilst the EU will look to hold a syndication.
• We pencil in an estimated gross issuance for the week at E21.9bln, down from E23.4bln this week.
• The upcoming week sees a single redemption of E1.4bln from a formerly 10-year Croatian government bond.
• Coupon payments for the week are E0.5bln, of which E0.3bln are from the EU, and E0.2bln are from the EFSF.
• This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E20.0bln, versus positive E1.0bln this week.

Supply Next Week

• The EU will look to hold its first syndication in H2 in the upcoming week. We don’t have a high conviction around which bonds will be on offer, but we do think there is a good chance that we see a dual-tranche syndication.
• On Tuesday, the Netherlands will kick off issuance for the week by holding a conventional auction with E1.5-2.0bln of the 3.25% Jan-44 Green DSL (ISIN: NL0015001RG8) on offer.
• Also on Tuesday, Austria will sell a combined E1.438bln of the 2.90% May-29 Green RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A33SH3) and the 3.15% Jun-44 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A0VRQ6).
• Germany on Wednesday, will hold a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E500mln of the 0% May-36 Bund (ISIN:DE0001102549) alongside E1.5bln of the on-the-run 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598).
• Italy, on Friday will conclude issuance for the week by holding a 3,7 and 15-50 year BTP auction. Details will be announced on Monday. We expect a reopening of the 3.45% Jul-27 BTP alongside the 3.45% Jul-31 BTP but we don’t have a strong conviction around the 15+ year BTP that will be on offer.